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Too optimistic to call?

GlennJones Posts: 158Subscriber
Game is 5/5 $600 cap. Effective stacks $500 (me). Villain covers.

Table has just opened. Literally first hand.

I have JJ UTG. I open to $20. BTN 3 bets $45. I call. Heads up.

Flop 9d4d6s. I check. Villain continues for $65. I call ($220).

Turn 3d. Checks through.

River is a brick (2c). I check. Villain bets $165.

????
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Comments

  • ds2uared Posts: 375Subscriber
    3bets are rare to open up a table when they are rec. players. I like a passive line here, too. Call, check-call, check-call is good on this runout. I think I can sometimes find a fold on the river. The diamond will slow down the average player's overpair. And if AK is going to bluff, they are more likely to continue the bluff on a scare card. (The average player's 3bet range is TT+ and AK sometimes, at least in my player pool.

  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    What is Villain's player profile? Obviously you haven't seen him play, but age, gender, ethnicity, and demeanor can all be useful in evaluating situations when we don't have much hand history to go off of.

  • GlennJones Posts: 158Subscriber
    ds2uared said:
    3bets are rare to open up a table when they are rec. players. I like a passive line here, too. Call, check-call, check-call is good on this runout. I think I can sometimes find a fold on the river. The diamond will slow down the average player's overpair. And if AK is going to bluff, they are more likely to continue the bluff on a scare card. (The average player's 3bet range is TT+ and AK sometimes, at least in my player pool.
    Thanks. Yeah - I've recently stepping up to the $5 blind level so I'm getting used to the player pool. I thought it would be pretty weak to fold river. Maybe if the preflop 3 bet was larger.

    If was assume that 3 betting range (I also included AQ in that range), when it comes to river, I'm behind AA-QQ (18 combos). My thought was the check on the turn could also be to keep from getting blown off his hand if I check raise with a flush (so hands like AdKx, AdQx, AxKd, AxQd - 16 combos). So pretty close in my mind.....

  • GlennJones Posts: 158Subscriber
    jojacks said:
    What is Villain's player profile? Obviously you haven't seen him play, but age, gender, ethnicity, and demeanor can all be useful in evaluating situations when we don't have much hand history to go off of.

    Young Asian waiting for a seat in the 5/10 game. Table had just openeing and this was literally the first hand of the evening at this table.

  • alecspade Posts: 73Subscriber
    I mean what legitimately beats us here? KK/QQ I kind of discount due to the preflop min-click. I could see AA and AdKd as well. I think he probably still fires with AA with a diamond and checks back the others. As played, I don't think I can find a fold here with this runout.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,102Subscriber
    If it's an old folk then the minclick can be AA. A young asian dude, esp one waiting to play bigger, the minclick is total BS. I would jam pre, honest.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
    CycleV said:
    If it's an old folk then the minclick can be AA. A young asian dude, esp one waiting to play bigger, the minclick is total BS. I would jam pre, honest.
    At 100BB, jamming is an overplay, only called by better pairs and maybe AK. Also, I’m not 3-betting without a better read on villain or a better dynamic (remember this is a raise UTG 1st hand in...usually garners some respect and being the first hand, people tend to feel others out for a few hands before making outrageous moves).

    Because of the turn check, I don’t expect to bluff catch the river. I’m going to attempt to dictate the terms of the river sizing and bet $100 not expecting to ever get raised and be called by a myriad of worse hands.
  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    GlennJones said:
    jojacks said:
    What is Villain's player profile? Obviously you haven't seen him play, but age, gender, ethnicity, and demeanor can all be useful in evaluating situations when we don't have much hand history to go off of.

    Young Asian waiting for a seat in the 5/10 game.

    I imagine a player with this profile is capable of 3-betting light, betting for thin value on the river, and turning hands with no showdown value into bluffs, so I would lean heavily towards a call.
  • fishcake Posts: 962Subscriber
    jojacks said:
    GlennJones said:
    jojacks said:
    What is Villain's player profile? Obviously you haven't seen him play, but age, gender, ethnicity, and demeanor can all be useful in evaluating situations when we don't have much hand history to go off of.

    Young Asian waiting for a seat in the 5/10 game.

    I imagine a player with this profile is capable of 3-betting light, betting for thin value on the river, and turning hands with no showdown value into bluffs, so I would lean heavily towards a call.
    This is really bad advice. Villain made it $45 pre so we can automatically mark him as terrible. He’s not gonna be some pro lol.

    That being said, this is a call for reasons other than you stated. I’m not folding JJ here against some random button clicker at HG even though bet/check/bet line is almost never a bluff. You might see some really random shit here. I just toss it in getting a decent price in these games. You’d be surprised.
  • ds2uared Posts: 375Subscriber
    I think this river is a call and he's going to show you something like A6 or A8 for a moderate strength hand or complete air. That player profile and his 3bet size is sometimes just because it's the first hand.

    Some guys like that will open at a table with their foot on the gas but with no real control of the shifting, lurching back and forth between completely spazzing and texting on their phone. (When they put their phone down but are obviously not done with it, you are beat).
  • CycleV Posts: 1,102Subscriber
    Garland said:
    At 100BB, jamming is an overplay, only called by better pairs and maybe AK. Also, I’m not 3-betting without a better read on villain or a better dynamic (remember this is a raise UTG 1st hand in...usually garners some respect and being the first hand, people tend to feel others out for a few hands before making outrageous moves).

    Because of the turn check, I don’t expect to bluff catch the river. I’m going to attempt to dictate the terms of the river sizing and bet $100 not expecting to ever get raised and be called by a myriad of worse hands.
    The idea that we garnered some respect from a rando young asian that minclicked our utg raise, I'm not seeing it.

    If our pre raise actually garnered respect, he should put us on an OP, a set of nines, or a FD, which got there. I can't see what if we lead river we get called by that is worse than JJ. I'm fine w c/c but I don't see the value in a river lead. FWIW if V is wide he has a million 2p, flushes, and even an oesd otf got there. TT might call us, but that's all I can see.
  • fishcake Posts: 962Subscriber
    Ya leading's bad.
  • GlennJones Posts: 158Subscriber
    edited July 8
    Thanks all. My thought was that the min 3 bet was TT-QQ, AK, AQ maybe KQs. He continues on a flop that shouldn't hit my range very hard. Checking the turn when the flush come in means either he has something with showdown value, or he has a diamond (AdKx, AdQx, etc.) and doesn't want to get blown off his hand. Then the big bet on the river was pretty uncomfortable. Feels like value. But if he was checking back with AdX on the turn, then he probably has more combos that he is bluffing with, than he's betting with that beat me. I called.

    Any comments about my thought process? Am I going way too deep for this player pool?

    Spoiler:
    He had QQ.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 355Subscriber
    edited July 8
    CycleV said:
    Garland said:
    At 100BB, jamming is an overplay, only called by better pairs and maybe AK. Also, I’m not 3-betting without a better read on villain or a better dynamic (remember this is a raise UTG 1st hand in...usually garners some respect and being the first hand, people tend to feel others out for a few hands before making outrageous moves).

    Because of the turn check, I don’t expect to bluff catch the river. I’m going to attempt to dictate the terms of the river sizing and bet $100 not expecting to ever get raised and be called by a myriad of worse hands.
    [quote]
    The idea that we garnered some respect from a rando young asian that minclicked our utg raise, I'm not seeing it.

    If our pre raise actually garnered respect, he should put us on an OP, a set of nines, or a FD, which got there. I can't see what if we lead river we get called by that is worse than JJ. I'm fine w c/c but I don't see the value in a river lead. FWIW if V is wide he has a million 2p, flushes, and even an oesd otf got there. TT might call us, but that's all I can see.
    I doubt villain has many 2p given even a semi-normal 3-bet range or flushes given the turn check through. You'll be surprised what might call you if you size down enough. In this case I'm not only targeting TT, but 88,77, 9x and even possibly AK thinking he might "chop chop". This amount also dictates how much we're willing to put in the pot in case we're beaten by an overpair or better, in this particular case we would have saved $65.
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