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3bet light gone wrong?

chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
2/3nl live, $300 max, Friday night
Hero has moved over to this game from Omaha/8 about 15 minutes prior. Little to no history with any of the players at this table. Likely have a slightly “winning” image due to winning two hands so far: 1 when my opponent folded, and the other showing down a winner.
Villian, late 30s white male. Seems like a standard rec player with nice work clothes and a very expensive watch. When I first arrived at the table villain opened UTG to $15 and showed down QQ.

Preflop ($5)
Villian ($430) opens UTG to $12, btn calls, hero ($275) 3 bets to $50 from the BB with Th6c, villain snap calls, btn folds.

Flop ($110)
9h7h6h
Hero leads for $70 with pair+SFD, villain ships it all in after about 5-10 seconds. Pot is $405 and it is $155 to call (all in).

Hero? What range are we putting him on here? Does he always have a flush or can he have 8h8x, AhTx, Ah9x, any AhXx, KhXx, or a set?
Most of the reason behind my 3bet pre was that I was confident in villian’s bet sizing tell of opening larger with premiums and smaller with medium-strong hands. Even though the difference in his opening raises was only 1BB, I think the $12 open gave away some info on his hand.
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Comments

  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    I think the light 3-bet squeeze is fine preflop if you see that sizing tell.

    On the flop, why are you c-betting? Just want to know your thought process regarding the c-bet.

    If I were going to bluff this flop, I would probably just shake my head, say, "I guess it's time to go home," and then shove for 2x pot.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    I guess my thot process on cbetting the flop is that I don't want to give a free draw to the Kh or Qh or a pair draw for any overcards.
  • BugsyBugsy Posts: 40Subscriber
    Hey Chili and Dave,
    I understand the idea behind the BB 3-bet but why the bet on the flop?

    If the assessment of the tell is correct, couldn't a big part of his range be pairs of 6s, 7s or 9s along with KJ, K9, etc. and even possibly suited connectors with those combos involved?
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    My cbet can also get a fold from a better hand like a pair Tx or 9x with no hearts.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    This is 3bet pot so we have a ton of dead money in the middle and it is correct to try to win that dead money very often so we should increase our cbetting percentage in 3betpots. To balance out this very high percentage we can decrease sizing to make cbetting in 3 bet pots more profitable in general. Also even cbetting small we won't have problem to get all in by the river cause pot is bloated preflop and our SPR usually is low.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Yes, spr is low and yes cbets don't have to be as big relative to the size of the pot, but one thing I'm not really looking for here is to get all in by the river.
    Edit: unless the turn is the 8h. :)
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    chilidog said
    I'm not really looking for here is to get all in by the river.
    But your opponent doesn't know that. What he knows that if he calls this cbet he's potentially putting all his stack in at the end. So even small cbet has a ton of FE.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    TDF said

    This is 3bet pot so we have a ton of dead money in the middle and it is correct to try to win that dead money very often so we should increase our cbetting percentage in 3betpots. To balance out this very high percentage we can decrease sizing to make cbetting in 3 bet pots more profitable in general. Also even cbetting small we won't have problem to get all in by the river cause pot is bloated preflop and our SPR usually is low.
    I disagree with this kind of thought process. How do you even know that there is a lot of "dead money" out there? I don't really know Villain's range here, but the idea that you should be c-betting a lot more often with weak hands In 3-bet pots is fundamentally incorrect.

    Because SPR is low, we have to be very careful with any c-bets because we are likely to face an all-in. If we c-bet here and hate life when we get raised, then I think we are making a mistake with the c-bet itself.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    When we have a weak combo draw like OP does in this example, we should always ask ourselves: what will maximize my fold equity?

    If SPR were 3-4, I would probably go for CRAI for max FE. Because SPR is only 2 here, I think overbet shove for 2x pot is the best way to maximize FE.
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    I guess I'm alone in thinking that what went "wrong" with this threebet- to borrow op's term- was that it was made in the first place. Maybe I'm a terrible nit but I just don't see how three-betting light oop vs unknown who raised utg (albeit $3 less than before) is profitable in long run. Especially at these stakes, isn't this the definition of FPS? I agree that you picked up a useful tell but is this really the best way to make use of it? As a default read, I would think an unkown's range for raising utg and calling large three bet is pretty narrow and that most of the time this is either flush or overpair with bigger heart, against which you are toast. I'm check folding this all day. There are better spots.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    marseille,
    3betting light doesn't have to be profitable by itself as long as it increases profitability of your entire 3betting range.
    I agree with you that I wouldn't 3bet this hand. Usually I want something a bit more playable in case I got called or hand with blockers (Ax,Kx).
    Your post started great but "There are better spots." is terrible logic. If something is +EV we shouldn't give it up just because we will encounter more +EV spots in the future.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    David Chan said
    I disagree with this kind of thought process. How do you even know that there is a lot of "dead money" out there?
    Well, pot is big because we build it preflop by 3betting and getting called. All that "dead money" in the middle are worth to take a shot at.
    the idea that you should be c-betting a lot more often with weak hands In 3-bet pots is fundamentally incorrect.
    You have to prove this cool
    I think that cbetting in 3bet pots are very profitable because:
    1.You showed a lot of strength by 3betting pre. Now you continue with your story. Quite often villain's JJ and QQ go into setmining mode after your 3bet, and he's calling pre with AQ without any idea why, just because it's too hard to fold such a pretty hand pre, so he's happily folding it to your cbet.
    2.Even small pot percentage wise bet is big in absolute $ amount which adds FE
    3.By calling cbet villain is potentially committing himself and putting the rest of his stack in risk, which adds FE
    4.Big pot and low SPR means that we don't need much equity to continue with the hand.
    Because SPR is low, we have to be very careful with any c-bets because we are likely to face an all-in.
    Why do you think that face an all-in is a bad thing?
    We're OOP and by going all-in villain gives up his positional advantage on later streets. When he goes all-in he makes our life much easier. We just need to estimate our equity vs his range and make best decision we can. That's much simple task than to play turn and possibly river OOP in a huge pot.
    If we c-bet here and hate life when we get raised, then I think we are making a mistake with the c-bet itself.
    To hate life is a mistake. Period. But it doesn't hurt to think about what you're going to do vs all-in before you cbet, that's for sure.
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    TDF said

    I think that cbetting in 3bet pots are very profitable because:
    1.You showed a lot of strength by 3betting pre. Now you continue with your story. Quite often villain's JJ and QQ go into setmining mode after your 3bet, and he's calling pre with AQ without any idea why, just because it's too hard to fold such a pretty hand pre, so he's happily folding it to your cbet.
    2.Even small pot percentage wise bet is big in absolute $ amount which adds FE
    3.By calling cbet villain is potentially committing himself and putting the rest of his stack in risk, which adds FE
    4.Big pot and low SPR means that we don't need much equity to continue with the hand.
    TDF: The key factor to consider here is that H has a really weak hand. Your rationale of why cbetting in 3bet pots is profitable does not hold much water when you are completely blind to the actual texture of the board. Neither players knows what the other is holding, and being ooP post flop is going to make it extremely hard to narrow Vs holdings. Is this really the kind of situation we are looking to be forced into calling an AI? Your suppositions of V setmining or having a random AQ "a lot of the time" are not based on any kind of thought process specific to the hand in question, and therefore meaningless. What if he has the Aheart? When David says its fundamentally flawed, it goes back to the most basic premise that only better hands are ever calling H when he bets. We literally beat nothing that V would continue with. Therefore, H is not betting for value. How often is H, as the pre flop 3-bettor, doing so with a s/c type hand? If so, is he ever getting credit for it? This makes it a bad spot to c-bet as a bluff. So, both good reasons we have for betting are absent here. It doesn't matter how much FE you add by betting when you are likely getting called by a range of hands that has you crushed.

    Chili- as far as betting to not give him a free card...I cant understand why you speak of this hand as if have the best of it...if youre going to lead in this scenario you should just be shipping it.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    ThatOtherJeremy said
    Chili- as far as betting to not give him a free card...I cant understand why you speak of this hand as if have the best of it...if youre going to lead in this scenario you should just be shipping it.
    it's very possible that i have the best hand here with a pair of 6s. KQ, AQ, AJ, AT, KJ have all missed (or at least don't have a pair yet).
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    TDF said

    Your post started great but "There are better spots." is terrible logic. If something is +EV we shouldn't give it up just because we will encounter more +EV spots in the future.
    Well, I guess my point was that it isn't +EV at all. And there are plenty of reasons why one should distinguish between better and worse +ev situations. Why paint with black and white when you have a whole palette at your disposal?
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Do we think we have enough equity to call all in after V ships over our cbet?
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    it's just so hard to flop even a decent draw with T6o. you flopped about the best you could have and you're in kind of a guessing game. i guess you had this "tell" that he somehow ALWAYS makes it 12 when weaker and ALWAYS 15 when strong, but am i the only one who doubts the reliability of this tell, which seemingly is the only basis for which this play would ever make any sense? it's almost like you're giving a guy too much credit for being able to be disciplined enough to adhere without fail to such a strict betting pattern.... plus if he was medium-strong, would he snap call pre or take a second first?

    as played, i think DC is right when he suggests a ship. AA or KK probably would have re-shipped pre, so if you're called, you're really only concerned with QQ or JJ that contain hearts. anything else and you either are likely ahead with the pair or have decent equity.... although being vs. AheartTclub would suck....
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    It's not his adherence to discipline that I'm counting on, it's his lack of adherence. He is subconsciously giving away info by not recognizing his betting pattern of raising more with premiums and less with non-premiums. I really don't think he ever has TT+ here and almost always has high cards that are not AK.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    how big is your hand sample?
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    True: I don't have a database of hands on the villian. But most rec players have subconscious betting patterns that give away their positions. This guy is 100% a rec player. I think in some of these situations it comes down to who can make the best assumptions and adjustments based on the incomplete information that we have available.
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