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Folding set to turn 3 bet?

1/3 NL. I’m in lowjack with 44. Effective stack is $700.
I limp, HJ raises to 20. I call , button calls.
HJ hasn’t raised in 1hr I’ve been playing with him. Playing snug.

POT is 60$. Flop A47 rainbow. Check check HJ bets 35 into 60. I call button folds. Dry board no reason to raise.

Turn is J spades brining two spades.

I check HJ bets 55 into 130. I raise to 155. HJ 3 bets all in for 600ish. I fold. HJ shows K10o.

My analysis: only value hands I can think of that I’m ahead are AJ and guy seemed very snug and thinking. Apparently not. I don’t see people 3 bet bluffing with gutshots after I show so much strength. Is this a bad fold in long run? I feel that bluff 3 bets are so rare on turn that I can only call with middle set unless I have a read that the guy overvalued hands.

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Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 316Subscriber
    Probably best not to give results before soliciting unbiased results. Just because he hasn’t raised in an hour doesn’t necessarily mean he’s tight. He may be card dead. This isn’t a sufficient sample size. With no flush & straight possible at these limits, it’s best to adopt a “no fold set” approach. In this case, it’s the very fact that he could have AJ you should call. Suppose you only put him on AA (3 combos) or AJ (9 combos), then it’s 3:1 you’re ahead and have a slam dunk call. Add A7 and perhaps overplayed AK to this, and it makes this an even easier call. You didn’t mention what specific flop card contained the, but if it’s not the A, then add Ax as another hand that people easily go gonzo about.

    BTW, raise pre-flop!
  • CycleV Posts: 1,030Subscriber
    Unless you're staring at a board that is disgusting, like 4-flush, one liner to a straight, you should 99.999% never fold a set at 1/3.

    Welcome to the site! Lots of good posters here, you'll learn a ton.
  • Chase Posts: 120Subscriber
    edited July 17
    When you're faced with the jam, it's worth considering that, "...bluff 3 bets are so rare". But you have to consider how that applies to this particular situation. Garlard's post covers what else you should be thinking about.

    Having an open-limping strategy can sometimes be OK, but it's best to default to a raise-or-fold strategy when being the first player to enter a pot. There are many reasons why you probably shouldn't have an open-limping range. One of the reasons in this instance is that weak hands are more profitable as part of strong ranges than weak ranges. When you open-limp your range is wide, weak, and condensed (doesn't contain any of your best hands). When you open-raise, your range is strong and linear (it contains all of your best hands).

    Arriving to the flop, your opponent has a significant range advantage because his range is strong and linear, and your range is wide, weak, and condensed.
    This particular flop heavily favors your opponent (he has all the AA/77/A7s/A4s/AK/AQ and you have zero combos of those hands).

    In this situation on the flop, you shouldn't have a check-raising range against most opponents. The reasoning isn't merely, "Dry board no reason to raise." You shouldn't have a x-r range mostly because the PFR has a significant range advantage and nut advantage, and you have very few strong hands in your range. If you decide to check-raise it's because you're exploiting a particular opponent, as you might if for example the opponent was an inexperienced player who is going to greatly over-value AX on this flop.

    In theory you also shouldn't have a x-r range on the turn here because the opponent has such a large range advantage and nut advantage. But in practice check-raising this turn seems better than check-calling. We would like to get the most value from hands like AK/AQ, and he might have turned a draw with something like K Q , K T , Q T , T 9 , and there isn't much value to just calling and checking the river because most people tend to be "showdown-bound" when last to act on the river (they don't often bluff or value-bet thinly when last to act otr). Don't fold when the guy 3b!-jams for the reasons Garland explained.
  • PokerShaman Posts: 71Subscriber
    If you are playing in a rake-trap game like 1-3, especially if it is no-flop-no-drop, you basically should never open-limp, because it is such a coup to take down a pot, even a small one, that is minimally raked.

    In California, where a fixed drop is taken out when the flop is dealt, open-limping is actually disastrous, because your money and more just disappears down the slot, and you can find yourself and the big blind battling over a $1 pot when you have both invested $3.
  • Superfly Posts: 322Subscriber
    Maybe I’m missing something but I don’t understand the bet sequencing. You seem to have button acting after you but before hijack?
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