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1/2 - Overpair versus check-raise all-in from crazy LAG

Weird 1/2 hand I'd like feedback on.

$400 effective. V1 ($400) is older gentlemen, tight, but rather aggressive. V2 is LAG donkey. Short bought for $80 and has run it up to over $600 in two hours. Playing roughly 75% VPIP and jamming all-in like a mad man. Thankfully another crazy lag has called him on a few hands so I got to see what he was jamming with. The 3 times I saw him hands he had draws or top pair+ hands.

H raises to $14 UTG with 9 9. V1 calls in MP, V2 calls OTB, SB calls, BB calls.

($70) - Flop - is 7 6 4

SB x, BB x, H bets $40, V1 calls, V2 shoves all-in.

Hero? - I think this is a fold because we don't close the action, could be drawing almost dead to 85, 76 and 35 (all in V2's range), and I might not even be that far ahead to something like A8 or A5

Feedback appreciated. Cheers!
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Comments

  • LatvianMissile Posts: 119Subscriber
    I think this is a call, but a fold is ok also. You're behind over pairs and two pairs, but he has so many 7s in his range if he's playing almost every hand and jamming with just top pair I'd call it. The guy behind you could have a gutter, a pair, a flush or just floating with a backdoor flush draw.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,439Subscriber
    This is what you need to consider

    #1 Lag is doing this in a 3 way pot which leans less on him bluffing.... But has he done XRAI with draws in a 3 way pot before or multiway pot?

    #2 How has he played his strong hands? The same?

    #3 You are calling $346 to win $466 vs a range in which the combined equity of all the hands he has makes this pretty close to 0EV. You need 42% equity vs his entire range.

    #4 if he is that aggressive can you get a better read if you check to him and let him drive the action?

    #5 How often when he enters the pot does he jam like this. You can actually figure out the numbers and construct a range if you understand how often he has draws post flop vs strong hands, vs everything else. Convert that to combos and make an educated decision.

    In a case like this you would much rather have AA than 99 in this spot if you call because a lot of his draws will have overs on you.

    Right now you block none of the made hands. You block the SDs though. So that leaves more straights, sets, 2 pairs, and flush draws out there.

    If I was playing this hand and he played his strong hands just like this I would lean on folding. If he played his strong hands differently I'd lean on calling. If I had AA I'd lean on calling.
  • MattM Posts: 39Subscriber
    The size of the ship all-in is going to make me fold. How far ahead of his range can we really be with 2 nines in our hand? Also we have another player behind who called next to act and he could have us beat. I would much rather call with A7 or TT or anything that unblocks bluffs and blocks 2p and sets.
  • CraftBeerWizard Posts: 40Subscriber
    Thanks for the analysis of the hand, everyone. FuzzyPup - he was playing his hands pretty similarly, jamming all-in when checked to or bet into. With that in mind...

    Spoiler:
    I tanked for a minute or so and decided to fold. I still didn't know what the old man had and figured I could always take another shot at crazy lag later in the session.

    Old man called the crazy guy. Old man had A 10 and crazy lag had 3 7 !

    Board ran out running sixes and crazy lag took it down.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,439Subscriber
    edited July 16
    If you didn't do the work.... here it is

    It includes all the draws with a little extra for a spazz pair + SD + all strong hands.

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 62.629% 62.09% 00.54% 8615796 75158.00 { 77, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd5d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd5d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Jd7d, Jd5d, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 85s, 76s, 7d5d, 74s, 7d3d, 7d2d, 64s+, 53s, 76o }

    Hand 1: 37.371% 36.83% 00.54% 5110901 75159.50 { 9c9s }


    With BLACK ACES you are 41% to win vs this range.

    So it is what I predicted or at least pretty darn close when adding in the 10% spazz factor. A lesson to anyone that is reading. This is why you need to do math homework on ranges and understand combos and frequencies. I answered this question without calculating because I already did this work a long time ago in detail. I am just repeating here for everyone. If you want to be good having intuition and a general understanding isn't going to cut it. You need to read, read some more, read it again, do the math, do more math, work the combos, do more combos, get creative with combos, and work weird combo situations when you encounter something strange. I've read over 100 books on poker.

    If you don't put in the homework you will not get past being a minor winner at best at low stakes barring being some super genius savant at this game.

    I haven't player poker serious in about a year because I have been working on a computer game project that requires all my time and is going to make me a shit load of money. But because I did all this work for the last 15 years all this is basically engraved in my skull permanently. When I take these breaks from poker usually the only thing that falters is remembering tells on players. But that comes back quickly. The math is always there.

    So once again you want to become good simply watching videos of hand reading isn't going to cut it. You need to do the work like it's a PHD program. So the math you do becomes intuitive.
  • CraftBeerWizard Posts: 40Subscriber
    That's for the work, FuzzyPup!

    I'm not sure if he was really 75% VPIP (seemed like it), but until I looked at equilab to see what 75% of all PF hands looked like, I was surprised how wide that made his range.

    I obviously had never done the math prior to this situation, never played with a player like this. HOpefully run into him again, soon

    Cheers!
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