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River play with straight on paired board

jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
1/3 $200 effective

Villain is young white guy, but very nitty. VPIP probably < 10%. Bought in short and opens to $10 when many players at the table open for $15 or more.

V opens UTG +1 to $10, everyone else folds H calls in BB with J T

Flop (Heads up, $21) K Q Q H checks, V bets $12, H calls.

Turn ($45) A H leads out $40, V calls.

River ($125) 6 Hero?

I assume his raising range is something like ATs+, 99+, AJo+. KQ (maybe just suited), KJs, and I would expect him to C-bet all of it except 99, TT, and JJ.
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Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,439Subscriber
    Look at your combos.....

    AA = 3
    KQs = 2
    AQ = 6
    Total combos that crush you = 11

    Both these combos are out because V would NEEEEEVER bet this on the flop he has the board crushed
    KK = 3
    QQ = 1


    Hands that call in which you beat
    AK = 9
    AJs = 2 ... we give that he sometimes bets AJhh here or AJs as a bluff

    This is assuming an under 10% VPIP person raises these adjusted hands. Frankly I'd XF. He doesn't have enough hands you beat to justify betting and he is only betting when he has you beat.

    As for preflop....... FOLD heads up vs an UTG nit unless he is fit or fold and he has a range that includes AK and AQ, or you have a really good read on him.
    His range are your outs. For you to get paid you both have to flop large and that is incredibly rare. For example if you have 77 and he has AK the chances you flop a set and he flops top pair are 1 in 50.

    If you want to call then call with a hand like 87s instead. All your outs are out of his raise range. In this case you can make money from big pairs or semi-bluff vs AK or AQ if you have a read.

    Don't give nits action.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,102Subscriber
    Yeah easy fold pre
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 157Subscriber
    Yeah, fold pre vs an ultra nit opening UTG.

    That being said, if we were really deep, JTs is probably the best unpaired hand to call an ultra nit with preflop. When their range consist of QQ+, AK, we are essentially looking to smash an AKQ board and stack him.
  • MattM Posts: 39Subscriber
    You can just bet/fold. Youll get called by AK/AJ/AT. Full houses will raise you and you can just let it go no matter what pot odds youre getting.
  • jojacks Posts: 86Subscriber
    X/F was the conclusion that I had reached after the fact and with the analysis provided by Fuzzypup I’m convinced that’s the play. Best case scenario I get called the 50% I’m ahead and raised the 50% I’m behind so AT BEST it’s neutral EV. If he ever finds a fold with AJ, or does C-bet with KK or KQ some percentage of the time, bet-folding is -EV.

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