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Choose Your Value Bet: Part 7 Thin Value when an overpair isn’t an overpair anymore...

GarlandGarland Posts: 391Subscriber
Location: Graton Casino in Rohnert Park, CA
Stakes: $2/$5, $1000 max

Very loose passive game.

Effective Stack $1000

Pre-flop ($7 - 9 players) - 2 field limpers, I !$30 J J in CO, very loose passive button calls, one original limper calls, one folds.

Flop ($102 - 3 players) - T 6 2, x $45 only button calls.

Turn ($192 - 2 players) - 2. Bet $105 button calls.

River ($402 - 2 players) - Q. I bet what amount?

Of course villain has a T, it’s only a matter if he hit his Q. Even then he wouldn’t raise in fear of AA or KK. What sizing would you go with?

Comments

  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 167Subscriber
    Smaller, but not too small as to induce a spazz. I’m thinking 175.
  • MattM Posts: 39Subscriber
    I think a standard bet would be $250 or so. I would lean more towards $150 so I can ensure that a ten calls me. You also lose less money if he was slowplaying and raises you.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 391Subscriber
    edited August 12
    Spoiler:

    I bet $115, he flashes T and folds. Unfortunate river card. Maybe I should consider a microbet of $50-$75...
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    I'd bet $150. He is either calling or not. He already called a $100+ bet.

    IMO he is calling $50, $100, or $150 the same.

    If you bet too small you pretty much flip your hand face up in these spots and open yourself to being bluffed or never called.

    When you bet $150 which is small in a ratio to the pot but still a larger bet to the field emotionally you are playing the math and get value and bluffing opportunities.
  • Superfly Posts: 449Subscriber
    I was thinking 2 black chips to look somewhat polarized while keeping it callable with tens.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 391Subscriber
    edited August 13
    Fuzzypup said:
    I'd bet $150. He is either calling or not. He already called a $100+ bet.

    IMO he is calling $50, $100, or $150 the same.

    If you bet too small you pretty much flip your hand face up in these spots and open yourself to being bluffed or never called.

    When you bet $150 which is small in a ratio to the pot but still a larger bet to the field emotionally you are playing the math and get value and bluffing opportunities.
    I strongly disagree with the sentiment he's calling $50, $100 or $150 the same. There is a threshold of an amount he will call. The way I think of it:

    Will he call $10 with a bare T? Certainly. $20 Certainly ... $50 maybe? I work my way up the ladder and find the threshold this particular villain is willing to call. I bet $115 and he folded a T, so clearly I overshot his threshold. My job is to find a value bet he will call with an overcard to his T, and this is where I extract and maximize my value. I need to be like Godfather, give him an offer he can't refuse.

    I also disagree with the sentiment that I open myself up to bluffs with small bets. I know my opponent. He is very, very weak passive based on the showdowns I've seen. Also, I don't know about your player pool in mid-stakes, but bluff raises are rare in Nor Cal.

    Even if this happen from time to time, I consider inducing a bluff to be an opportunity to make more money, not a challenge to shy away from.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    You didn't say "weak" in your initial post which changes the betting.

    weak loose passive is very different than just loose passive.

    If he is weak then you do this same play with air OTR vs him like when you 2x barrel draws and miss then an over card comes.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 391Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    You didn't say "weak" in your initial post which changes the betting.

    weak loose passive is very different than just loose passive.

    If he is weak then you do this same play with air OTR vs him like when you 2x barrel draws and miss then an over card comes.
    The point is he's passive and not doing much raising without the goods. Honestly, in this game at this point, I'm playing hands almost purely for value and exploiting villains' tendency to only think on the first level ("what do I have?"). I have very few bluffs. I may show up with a hand like A K or K J, in which case, yeah, I'm betting much larger on the river, like $150-$175, but will have a hand like K Q or A Q to balance that out.

    With my particular hand and read, I'm ok with sizing down to get thin value from an obvious T.
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