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Choose Your Value Bet: Part 8 Thick Value...Turn Nuts, River A Non Nut Flush...

Garland Posts: 265Subscriber
edited July 14 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Location: Stones Gambling Hall in Citrus Heights, CA
Stakes: $1/$3, $500 max (match the big stack)

A little nitty game. Loose passive post flop.

Effective Stack $700

Pre-flop ($4 - 9 players) - I am UTG1 !$15 K Q . Called by UTG2, UTG3, button and bb.

Flop ($76 - 5 players) - T 9 3. Check around.

Turn ($76 - 5 players) - J (nice). BB leads $30, I just call, UTG2 and UTG3 calls, button folds.

River ($196 - 4 players) - 7. Check to me, I bet ???

Comments

  • jojacks Posts: 80Subscriber
    The game is a bit nitty, no one is heavily invested in the pot, and the board blocks a ton of smaller flush combos. It kind of sucks, but I think something in the $65-$75 range will yield the highest EV.
  • fishcake Posts: 952Subscriber
    Flatting turn is too fancy. Don’t do that in these low stakes live games. River I’d still go large. They’re just scared nits. Jx ain’t folding.
  • MattM Posts: 39Subscriber
    I would have raised the turn LARGE. That jack really fits into flat calling ranges. With deep stacks you need to start building right away, especially with so many scare cards to come. As played I would bet the river small, maybe $80 and fold to any substantial raise. If this game is nitty preflop than nobody made a flush here, unless it is the nut flush. The K, Q, J, and 9 and 7 of clubs are all taken here so what is left? Ax of clubs and MAYBE 56cc.
  • Garland Posts: 265Subscriber
    edited August 12
    Surprised at the raise turn advice. One of the few instances I think slowplaying is ok. Raising turn is too strong and everyone can see the straight when you raise. You don't want Jx to fold, you don't want 8x to fold, you don't want Qx to fold, you don't want 2 pair to fold and you don't want worse flush draws to fold. I'm only afraid of the nut flush draw, which I block. A lot of opportunity for opponents to "catch up". If someone has Q8 or 78, there's likely to be a raise behind me anyways.

    Spoiler:

    Unfortunate 7 is also a as the obvious flush comes in otherwise I can bet much larger. I bet $60 and only UTG2 calls. Obviously I'm good. BB claims he had 2 pair.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,376Subscriber
    I'd bet large. Straights aren't folding ~$125 unless I absolutely know people are playing with scared money then it's less than $100 like $80-$90
  • maphacks Posts: 2,001Subscriber
    Dude, it's 1-3, people don't come here to bet/fold 2pair+. Just raise the turn.

    As played, if you think ppl are really nitty and fold too many 2pairs vs small bets, go big and hops he has a straight. 70-100% pot.
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