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Flop 2 pair facing heat

Playing 2/5 and this hand goes down Literally second hand at this table. I know the players at the table fairly well and know it’s a loose game. Villain is Asian in his mid 40s , definitely good for the game but isn’t the worst player either. Action goes down as follows:

Folds to hero in CO and I open $20 with AcTh villain calls on button $450 eff and the blinds come along.

flop comes AsJcTc i bet out $50 villain raised to $150 what’s the best play with given info? I decided to call.

Turn was 9h I check and villain jams about $280 is this a better call or fold in this spot with such little time in this game?

Comments

  • Garland Posts: 261Subscriber
    edited July 19
    Tough spot since there are a lot of hands that beat you. He has the full 16 combos of KQ, 6 combos of AJ, 3 combos of JJ (assuming he doesn't 3! pre), 1 combo of TT, 1 combo AA (if he is being sneaky). Total = 27 combos.

    The best case scenario is he has JT (6 combos) and vastly overplays one pair type hands: A x (non AK/AQ = 8 combos), AK (8 combos, doesn't 3!??) and AQ (8 combos). Total = 30 combos. I suppose he could have a super combo like Q 9, 9 8, etc., but doesn't really change the landscape too much.

    If he isn't the "worst player" (i.e. isn't a raging lunatic), I'm going to remove a lot of those 1 pair type hands from his range, and I actually think you can find a good fold on the flop. Barring you turning an A or T, which will be very rare, you're going to encounter the same or worse scenario on the turn (lots of bad turn cards K, Q, J,). I'd just dump it on the flop and move on...
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,373Subscriber
    With 2 remaining to act and this guy being a regular donk with some awareness you can narrow his range to KQ more protecting vs the flush and fold. This is called an exploitive fold in this spot. Vs a player like me it isn't a fold but vs him it is.
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 225Subscriber
    Garland said:
    Tough spot since there are a lot of hands that beat you. He has the full 16 combos of KQ, 6 combos of AJ, 3 combos of JJ (assuming he doesn't 3! pre), 1 combo of TT, 1 combo AA (if he is being sneaky). Total = 27 combos.

    The best case scenario is he has JT (6 combos) and vastly overplays one pair type hands: A x (non AK/AQ = 8 combos), AK (8 combos, doesn't 3!??) and AQ (8 combos). Total = 30 combos. I suppose he could have a super combo like Q 9, 9 8, etc., but doesn't really change the landscape too much.

    If he isn't the "worst player" (i.e. isn't a raging lunatic), I'm going to remove a lot of those 1 pair type hands from his range, and I actually think you can find a good fold on the flop. Barring you turning an A or T, which will be very rare, you're going to encounter the same or worse scenario on the turn (lots of bad turn cards K, Q, J,). I'd just dump it on the flop and move on...
    Nice reply but do you really think he should just fold the flop with T&B?

  • Garland Posts: 261Subscriber
    edited July 22
    deadinaditch said:
    Garland said:
    Tough spot since there are a lot of hands that beat you. He has the full 16 combos of KQ, 6 combos of AJ, 3 combos of JJ (assuming he doesn't 3! pre), 1 combo of TT, 1 combo AA (if he is being sneaky). Total = 27 combos.

    The best case scenario is he has JT (6 combos) and vastly overplays one pair type hands: A x (non AK/AQ = 8 combos), AK (8 combos, doesn't 3!??) and AQ (8 combos). Total = 30 combos. I suppose he could have a super combo like Q 9, 9 8, etc., but doesn't really change the landscape too much.

    If he isn't the "worst player" (i.e. isn't a raging lunatic), I'm going to remove a lot of those 1 pair type hands from his range, and I actually think you can find a good fold on the flop. Barring you turning an A or T, which will be very rare, you're going to encounter the same or worse scenario on the turn (lots of bad turn cards K, Q, J, ). I'd just dump it on the flop and move on...
    Nice reply but do you really think he should just fold the flop with T&B?

    It certainly sucks to fold 2 pair to a raise, I agree. But before proceeding to make a flop call, you really need to ask a few questions:

    - What are we beating and what is beating us? As stated my assumptions are villain isn't simply raising many hands one pair or less. So we are far outpaced by value hands by simple combo counting.
    - What do we hope to see on the turn? Obviously an A or T is nice, but only 4 of those exist. But how do you feel if you see a K (4), Q (4), J (3) or other (8 non-broadway)? That's 19 cards that may make us puke. There is a term called visibility, we have poor visibility on the flop and the probability it will look any better on the turn is not good.
    - Are we willing to turn two pair into a bluff? I admit I overlooked the backdoor nut flush draw, which actually works in our favor somewhat. If he freezes on a turn K/Q or, are you willing to move in on river? Are you willing to bluff the turn on a scare card?

    Simply put, if you are only considering the pure value of your hand, I'd just fold on the flop and move on. Once the pot ($380) gets this size, I'm not sure if he a will stop his remaining stack ($280) from getting in the middle.



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