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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
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$1/$3 tricky spot

hero-good image, already won a few small pots, had been raising a lot in late pos, slightly looser then neutral.
V-tag, middle aged Asian male, haven't seen him bluff thus far.
eff-$450

hero-utg raises $15 with Q Q . mpV1 calls, btn calls, bb calls.

($61) flop J 3 2

hero bets $35, V raises to $75, folds to hero who calls.

($201)turn 6

hero checks, V bets $80, call? fold?, I end up calling.

($361)river 8

hero checks, V makes eye contact with me then after 30 seconds bets $140, fold? call?
Tagged:

Comments

  • Jax1234 Posts: 65Member
    Tough spot. I would have pegged him for ace jack based on his turn bet of $80 after what was effectively a min-click raise on the flop. But he actually increased the size of his river bet substantially even though the river bet is actually a smaller percentage of the pot than the turn bet. The pattern for guys "blocker-betting" ace-jack in this spot would be betting $85 or some bullshit like that on the river.

    Even if the guy is not the type to bluff, is he the type to overvalue his hand against a player he perceives as an aggressive player? The logic and reasoning of a lot of middle-aged Asian players is that the aggressive player would have come over the top of his min-raise on the flop if he had an overpair.

    So based on your description of the villain and the action, I do not think the villain's actions are particularly consistent with a set of jacks, threes, or twos or a pair of aces, kings. I think his actions are consistent with ace/jack, king/jack and a call is in order.

    However, the little stare down and the increased size of the river bet suggests that jack/eight is a possibility.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,144Subscriber
    edited July 20
    Good first post! Interesting hand.

    There's 500 in the midde and it's140 to call. You need to be good about 22% of the time. If we think he (almost) never has rando bluffs like A5s or some mid PP in his range, his bets are all what he thinks are value. If we give him 9 flopped sets and perhaps 2 of the 54s (how many he plays this way, it's up to you determine if he has 0-4 of these combos, or any 54o or 32s), he's got 11 value hands. Perhaps he lucked into a set on 6's or 8's but I can't really give him more than one combo max of that, given how the hand went down. So he's ahead of us about 10-15 times, give or take. Do we think he could overplay a jack with three or four combos? Well, he has a whole lot of jacks in his range, and AJs alone is 3 combos. If he could overplay even a couple more AJo combos, I think the math says we have to call.

    I'm not saying we do have to call, just that the math says this is a call. Usually a raise flop/bet/bet line is pretty dang strong, and 1p ain't no good. If this was a 22-year old Asian kid then I'd say we're just gonna have to call it off, but if your initial read is accurate, then it's just a question of if you think this guy is dumb enough to overplay top-top even 5 out of the 12 combos of AJ he could show up with, to say nothing of KJ, QJ, etc.

    In other words, I have no idea! Facing 3 streets of aggression, including the river when he could have checked back but kept firing anyway, you're probably beat. Except that there's so much dumb stuff at 1/3 that (imo) we should always have at least a 10% fudge factor in our math to account for the stupidity, in which case this is a shrug-call. (Which is what I would probably opt for, even knowing we're likely wrong 80% of the time.)
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 234Subscriber
    edited July 20
    You say he's a TAG, but is he going to 3! a UTG open with AJ? That seems more LAGGY than TAGGY. There just aren't many hands he could have that would take this line, you know what they are. You also say you hadn't seen him get out of line. Yes, you're getting 3.5:1 to call but If you do call here what you're saying is that Pot Odds are the only thing that matter, not image, not action, not history, not reads, ONLY Pot Odds. He's shown strength on 4 streets why can't we just take him at his word? If the money isn't important than yeah, go ahead and scratch the itch, otherwise I think folding is the wise play.
    by 1go8l1n
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    No draws really favor us here since we shouldn't have 54. We played it like we got a value hand.

    Yea I'd lean fold river but could make a call and wouldn't think it's a bad play really.
  • GlennJones Posts: 159Subscriber
    Hmm. It's tough to make hero folds at these stakes. What does he have here that beats us?

    I'm thinking of a flop range raising range something like: AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8, 76, 54. If he's a typical 1/3 player, he probably flats sets, but we can through in a couple combos of 33 and 22.

    Turn completes 54. So his turn continuing range would be his top pairs and 54, 33, 22 and maybe a couple of combos of 76 that he's turning in to a bluff. We checked the turn so do you think he is capable of thinking that you have an overpair?

    River really doesn't change anything here. So, now getting 3.5 to 1 with an over pair, can we really fold given his range? Even if we remove his weak Jacks (JT, J9, J8), I would find it tough to fold. Not saying that I would be comfortable about calling, but .....
  • Mackromento916 Posts: 6Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    thanks guys! a lot of great responses. In the end I tank call and he just mucks his cards right away, so it seems like he was bluffing with complete air.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,994AdministratorLeadPro
    I agree with @GlenJones

    It’s really tough to give these guys the credit for fastplaying a set or raising 54 in the flop as a semibluff. Villain is almost playing the hand like he has a J accept for the river bet. Almost like this is some stupid hand like J3. But given the pot odds I don’t think I find a fold.

    BTW are you familiar with my concept of “upfront betting” (calling turn to bet the river so a top pair hand doesn’t check back) This one is close and I might have utilized it here, although the board is not that draw heavy for you to have missed something.

    Bart
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    edited July 20
    Don't out dumb yourself here. His turn bet is small compared to the pot because he thinks you might have 54s and is scared even though 54s doesn't make sense for an UTG raise. Very likely he has a set and feels comfortable getting it in on the river.
    OR
    He simple is poker savvy enough to realize you have an overpair and bet sized small his set on the turn to set up a river shove. If I raised the flop like he did I'd size it down on the turn because clearly you have an overpair.

    Also he raised with people left to act.

    His river shove after it's pretty clear you have an overpair means he doesn't fear you. He could also have the overpair which beats your QQ. I have seen tighter tags play sets like this. Where they min-raise the flop to build a pot.

    So I think you made an ok fold and played it fine. AJ could be in his range but mostly he is checking back the river with it assuming you have what you have or better.

    quick flop min-raises on dry boards are so fucking annoying. That alone puts me on tilt lol.
  • joshofalltrades Posts: 91Subscriber
    The virtual min-click on the flop, turn follow-up of effectively the same size, and 30-second tank on the river would probably get a call from me in game.

    There aren’t many logical bluffs, but what value hand would need that long to decide what to do on the river?
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 234Subscriber
    edited July 21
    GlennJones said:
    Hmm. It's tough to make hero folds at these stakes. What does he have here that beats us?

    I'm thinking of a flop range raising range something like: AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8, 76, 54. If he's a typical 1/3 player, he probably flats sets, but we can through in a couple combos of 33 and 22.
    None of these hands make any sense if we go with Mackromento's original read, (Tag, hasn't seen him bluff so far). So now we know otherwise and next time a calling makes sense, but isn't that being completely results oriented? Do TAGS usually 3! 5x UTG raises with hands like AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8, 76, 54?

    Everyone keeps saying "You can't fold at this level getting these odds". Really? Do you all think 1/2, 1/3 (2/5?) players are all so bad that the only thing that matters are the PO's? I'm a rec myself who plays mostly 1/2-2/5 and I really have to disagree here. Big river calls are my bread and butter. Usually when a bet doesn't make sense I call, when it does make sense I fold. Based on the original read, there's nothing about his villains line that doesn't scream JJ-AA. Don't get me wrong, getting these odds calling is never going to be horrible but in my experience, when you do call, you will almost always be shown exactly what he was representing.

    Good post Mack.
  • Mackromento916 Posts: 6Subscriber
    deadinaditch said:
    GlennJones said:
    Hmm. It's tough to make hero folds at these stakes. What does he have here that beats us?

    I'm thinking of a flop range raising range something like: AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8, 76, 54. If he's a typical 1/3 player, he probably flats sets, but we can through in a couple combos of 33 and 22.
    None of these hands make any sense if we go with Mackromento's original read, (Tag, hasn't seen him bluff so far). So now we know otherwise and next time a calling makes sense, but isn't that being completely results oriented? Do TAGS usually 3! 5x UTG raises with hands like AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8, 76, 54?

    Everyone keeps saying "You can't fold at this level getting these odds". Really? Do you all think 1/2, 1/3 (2/5?) players are all so bad that the only thing that matters are the PO's? I'm a rec myself who plays mostly 1/2-2/5 and I really have to disagree here. Big river calls are my bread and butter. Usually when a bet doesn't make sense I call, when it does make sense I fold. Based on the original read, there's nothing about his villains line that doesn't scream JJ-AA. Don't get me wrong, getting these odds calling is never going to be horrible but in my experience, when you do call, you will almost always be shown exactly what he was representing.

    Good post Mack.
    well from my point of view hes not gonna have AA-JJ (most) of the time because he didn't raise pre flop. He was just representing such a narrow range, most guys I play with don't raise on the flop with sets on such a dry flop or with straight draws, with people left to act. From his pov I had been really aggro up to that point so I'll get less credit, and he'll want to (protect) his top pair holdings. in the end I called because of all the jacks he could have in his range. Also I play a match the stack $1/$3 so a 5x raise is standard.

  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 234Subscriber
    Mackromento916 said:

    well from my point of view hes not gonna have AA-JJ (most) of the time because he didn't raise pre flop. He was just representing such a narrow range, most guys I play with don't raise on the flop with sets on such a dry flop or with straight draws, with people left to act. From his pov I had been really aggro up to that point so I'll get less credit, and he'll want to (protect) his top pair holdings. in the end I called because of all the jacks he could have in his range. Also I play a match the stack $1/$3 so a 5x raise is standard.

    Ugh, I blew this one! For some reason I had it in my head that V 3! preflop. I see now he didn't, he just called so yes, AJ,KJ etc are in his range, of course so are alot of other hands that beat you but yes, this changes everything.

    Sorry.

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