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Bad jam?

1/3 NL 500 effective 910DD middle position open to $12 ,cut off call, button call, big blind 3 bets $40. I flat and button flats. Flop, Qd9s3d. Check, check , BB leads $100 I Jam for roughly $450 hoping for a fold but okay with a call. Button folds BB tanks for 5 minutes and calls AhQc . Turn Js , river 2c. Airball.

Comments

  • Djmballer Posts: 2Member
    Big blind had about $700 effective
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 391Subscriber
    Raising the flop accomplishes nothing unless BB is misplaying JJ/TT (which you block). BB has a nutted range and will call all hands that beat you and fold AK, which you beat. I'd call the flop and take the equity with your combo draw/possible best hand against AK. It's possible the turn will slow him down (the J very may well slow him down as many amateurs will be scared). Then you can get a free river card.

    I'm on the fence about calling 9Tdd to a 3-bet even though the price is so good.

    In the future, I'd avoid giving out results right away to avoid biased replies.
  • joshofalltrades Posts: 91Subscriber
    It's all very Villain dependent, but in general when I see someone 3! then lead the flop for a sizable amount, I don't think I have a lot of fold equity. That said, you're basically flipping against AA, KK, AQ, and bigger flush draws, and only 70/30 when Villain has a set, so it can't be that bad.
  • Superfly Posts: 445Subscriber
    My take would be it’s not bad per se, just high variance. Vs 3B pre from BB and 80% PSB OTF indicates strong holding. If you think he might cbet on the flop with QQ+, AQs, AKdd and AdKx, you’re a slight favorite. If you remove AdKx you’re a slight dog.

    V has to call 360 to win 680. Since there are FDs and SDs but not many 2P or set combos on the board, you probably don’t have a lot of fold equity.

    I myself tend to take a lower variance approach and prefer not to shove pair + FD hands in these near flip type situations, but I don’t think its necessarily wrong to do so and my guess is there are more aggro CLP subs who would say it’s the right move.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    What Garland said. And fold T9s to the 3b, you still got people behind. If it was 2 others that called and you were getting around 25:1 then call. In 1/3 you gave no bluffing power vs a 3b pot because they mostly 3b big pairs.
  • Superfly Posts: 445Subscriber
    I don’t play 1/2 so may be wrong but my assumption is that it would be extremely unlikely for a caller from CO or BTN to reraise the 3B. They are much more likely to call or fold, no?

    This combined with the fact that BB sized his 3B way too small makes me think the MP call here with 9Ts is fine. Does 9Ts not play well multi-way? Is there some other reason to fold that I am missing?
  • JLongo12 Posts: 49Subscriber
    I may be a total psycho, but I am probably going to 4! to $120 for a couple reasons. We have CO and BTN who are dead money. The BB 3! is so tiny considering that dead money I am certain he's weak. I believe we scoop pre over 80% of the time here. Well what if he jams? We didn't put in 1/3 of our stack so I'm rage folding I guess.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 391Subscriber
    edited August 13
    The one thing I'll add to this is psychologically you may fall into the trap of thinking "I don't want to call, miss the turn and have to fold to a massive bet with this beautiful draw when the equity drops considerably". So you raise flop with little/no fold equity to ensure you see this through to the river. My response is, take it street by street. Opponents will make betting mistakes. By raising the flop you forfeit your position and the ability for your opponents to make mistakes on the turn and river. There is a decent chance he'll check the turn or bet something like $100 again and you can easily take your equity calling with your now massive draw (you can actually call all-in in this particular case). You can also contemplate an all-in at this point if you feel there's fold equity based on his bet size, mannerism and previous play. If you call, when the river bricks, you can save whatever amount he doesn't put you in for.
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