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encore 1-2 very crazy game! $5000 pot. Why raise PF

I post a fairly simple hand in terms of strategy as a setup to ask a question about preflop aggression in a crazy game. Any comments welcome.

1/2 PLO game at encore/wynn, 3am 8 handed, super loose crazy table

H: (mP1) ($2300 has everyone covered) fairly new PLO player transitioning from long NLHE past for game selection benefits. Been playing very tight—only premium hands. (FYI I’ve Studied CLP PLO podcasts and vids a ton over past 3 months and played about 5000 hands .25-.50 online — up about $800. Played less than 20 live 1-2 sessions).

V1, (MP2 $2100) very laggy 50ish Ohio loud drunk tourist w 2100, been vpip-ing literally 100% of hands.

V2 (HJ 400) hip hop garb decked out 30 something LA Asian LAG but not as loose as V1. Been up and down, willing to call large flop, turn bets w any 2 pair.

V3 (button 600) 30 year old Australian tourist been playing moderately tight but open raises in EP a lot.

V4 (BB 225) tight 50 year old local Asian been playing tight aggressive, good player but has been taking a beating. Rebuys $200 each time he gets felted which has been a lot. Likes to get all in w good hands as quickly as possible.

$10 straddle by agreement. H opens $30 w AcKsKd8c. V1,2,3 call, v4 (BB) raises to $120. All call (H reraise?)

Flop ($500) Qc9c8d. V4 goes all in for $125, H calls (reraise?), V1pots for $1500, V2 call all in, V3 calls all in. Hero (after letting the dizziness clear) should ????

(I know — not much strategy interest in this hand but I use it as background to ask my next question).

here is my very serious question I thought of all night. What is the point of PF raising in a game like this? The rest of the night I played only premium hands and just tried to see flops as cheaply as possible even w good AA suited hands. Virtually every hand was raised, 60-70% of hands were multi-way preflop, and some were calling big flop/turn bets with baby flushes and 2 pairs. My strategy was very simple—see flops cheap and play for the nuts. Until I hit the nuts I stayed passive and no one tightened up against me (they seemed too worried about each other since I was in few pots). Should I still stay aggressive preflop and with big draws? Why?


  • GarlandGarland Posts: 415Subscriber
    edited August 2019
    Here's my 2 cents given that I'm effectively a newbie. Pre-flop, I look at the stacks around, and I'm definitely re-potting your hand. The only stack you really fear is MP2. As to why we raise and re-raise pre-flop? Unlike NL where people actually fold, in PLO we raise to reduce the stack to pot ratio and destroy people's implied odds. Either they fold out their speculative hands or pay dearly to see the flop. If you re-pot, this flop becomes very obvious to play if anyone comes along. As played, you cannot raise the flop, only call because the world is out there and they ain't folding. Unfortunately the worst case scenario of big stack MP2 pots, so when it comes back around to you, I'd probably just give up the dry nut flush draw/backdoor broadway/backdoor boat draw. Among the hands that are all-in, you're probably looking at at least 1 straight, 1 set which has redraws to boats and 1 inferior flush draw which reduces your outs. The pot odds are about 2.1:1, and I do not think you have the proper equity to call this off.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    The stack to pot analysis is something I still don’t understand. I know there are podcasts/videos on it that I’ve listened to but didn’t understand. Must be an important PLO concept I need to get on top of. There are so many premium hands in PLO that completely whiff of flops I’m getting raise shy.

    I didn’t have nearly enough time to do a pot odds analysis. It just seemed I was getting a very good price but I guess I should have taken the time to try and add it up. It happened so fast and was so crazy I just estimated. I didn’t want to commit my stack but thought it was the right price, knowing there had to be straights and sets. Backdoor boat did cross my mind but I called thinking I was getting at least 3-1 or more just looking around quickly. I also thought the side pot would be big enough to give me good odds even if a smaller stack caught a boat. Your comments are a helpful reminder I need to be more precise.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    edited August 2019
    My call on the flop is $1375 into a pot of $2875. which is 33%. If I don’t count outs for a paired board I’m getting a price to call. Implied odds give me another $600 if I hit. So I think it’s closer than you suggested.

    Results: I called, hit 4c on the turn, went all in and V1 made a crying call. Flush held and I scooped and 4 players rebought.

    I made a big error in my description of the hand. The amounts next to each villain were the amounts the had or bet on the flop and did not include the preflop amount of $125 (except the BB, that was correct). I noted the amounts of each bet sitting in front of each player when I was considering the $1375 call. Sorry I know that changes things.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 415Subscriber
    edited August 2019
    I'm taking it one street at a time. You have 9 clean outs for the turn, which is 4:1 in the best case scenario that no one shares a flush draw. If you miss the turn and the board doesn't pair, you're going to have to call to see the river with what little stack is left. You would have to put in some hand assumptions into a simulator and see your equity to the river against a reasonable set of hands for the all-ins. This is not an exercise I've done yet.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    I really appreciate your timein this — it’s heloful. It makes me think better. One very small nit: “Best case scenario that no one shares a flush draw”. Outs simply include all unseen cards. You don’t guess that someone might hold them.

    Top set vs flush draw in PLO is 68-32. Not sure how much overpair adds, but certainly very little. If I call the flop bet we’re very likely both committed on the turn — especially because the side pot is so huge.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,157Subscriber
    I see G's point here. There are FOUR other people who called the flop. Yeah, some of it can be short stack stupidity, but the big stack over 90% has a straight or QQ. What do the other 3 people have? They can't all have sets. It's highly unlikely they all have straights. And unless they are total droolers (which I almost never see in my game), you should be able to rule out naked 2p hands. So we're looking at the very real possibility that one of them has a FD. I'm not saying take 2 outs away from you, but I don't think it's unreasonable to deduct one. Here. the A, Q, 9, and 8 are accounted for, so that does limit some FD possibilities, but with the Kc unaccounted for, I'd expect someone has the 2nd NFD. Wouldn't shock me at all to see KcJcTx from someone.

    "If I don't count outs for a paired board" omg you have to know that you need to account for this! It's like 33%!

    And I'm sure you do know that if you didn't have NFD hand (again, given 4 other players in the hand) that your FD is worthless, but I'm saying it just in case.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    edited August 2019
    The only non nut flush draw I can possibly see is the BB. But he is the only solid player at the table. Once V1 pots to 1500 (he absolutely has the but straight at that point) no one is calling w just second nut clubs. I’m not giving anyone credit for club draws.

    As far as the board pairing I’m putting at least 2 of the players on sets or 2 and 3 pair hands. Plus I have one of the 8s. I assumed V1 had a straight almost 100% so the huge side pot will be mine even if the board pairs. Plus made straights will certainly have board cards that block the board pairing. So while 33% is the typical number, in this case I thought it was a much smaller risk. I think 5 board pairing outs are dead — certainly that’s much more likely than flush outs being dead with these players. I’m not saying it’s a good call w pot odds, but I think it’s closer than you’re advocating.

    If I only had king high clubs I would have folded to the first bet.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    Please don’t take my pushing back as a lack of appreciation for your comments, or an indication that I didn’t learn something. I did. Sometimes I learn the most when I argue a bad position and get flamed.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,157Subscriber
    I haven't done the math on the flop, so I'll let you do that. I'm sure it'd be a good exercise for me, just not right now.

    So my critique isn't about the math, it's about your thought process that seems to be all over the place. This is a complex hand with a million all ins, so that's understandable! But I think you're stating clarity in a couple of spots where it isn't warranted.

    Example 1: You say big stack has the straight, so even if the board pairs you'll win if you hit the flush. But later on, you (correctly imo) look at how a hand with JT intereacts with the board, and will often include some sets and 2p. Even a single pair on top of the straight, like AQJT, has some runner runner outs for the boat. So you can't have it both ways. First you say there is no worry about a redraw. Then you want to (essentially) ignore the disasterous possibility of main V's redraw by claiming that boat outs are lessened anyway by multiple V's blocking each other, but you won't lessen your own outs with the possibility that someone also has a FD. (And if they do, it's likely to have one out to the straight flush, so not only are some of your outs possibly blocked, one of them is not even an out for you.)

    Related is example 2: You seem very certain that you can peg your V's on some pretty specific hands. but what if not one but two of them have a straight (entirely possible), meaning that there aren't as many dead boat outs as you think? There's nothing about your initial description that makes me think you can know exactly what they have. A drunk hyperLAG, a hip hop young Asian calling any 2p, and a super stuck guy with deep pockets who pushes any reasonable piece otf. And they're all short enough that getting it in otf with hands they shouldn't is part of their MO. You can't tell us with any certainty (unless you've seen the cards) that one of these guys doesn't have a K-high FD with some other piece going on.

    And I think you're telling us with such certainty what you think they have because you got to see the cards. We all know that's how our minds can work, making up after-the-fact justifications that weren't merited before we had all the facts. It happens to everyone sometimes, and losing poker players do this--essentially lie to themselves--all the time. But we're CLP, baby! We are better than that.

    If we're going to rigorously attack our own weaknesses, especially in PLO where, speaking for myself if not all the non-pro PLO posters on the forum, I/we make multiple mistakes worth hundreds of dollars in equity every session. That can be harsh to accept, or it can be liberating: let's tighten our though processes and then rake in the money!

    I kinda hate it when NLHE posters @ the pros, as if their hand is so gosh darn special that then will only listen to the CLP superstars. But I know that @Garland and myself, we're probably better than our player pool, but we're early in our journey to Crusherville. And I do think this hand has lots of concepts that come up all the time, it has been fascinating to think about. So thanks for posting is @Jonesey! But I do look forward to reading/hearing what @Terphimself and perhaps @FreeLunch have to say about both the math and how we should think about these spots.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    Here’s the problem CycleV. Look at the last line of your first post. As a throw away you point out the most obvious and common PLO advice given to me from the first time I ever played PLO: you cannot play any flush draws but the nuts. These guys are loose, but they’re not stupid or inexperienced. Every one of them would have given the same advice: don’t play a non nut FD. Now they might do that if gets stsy small, but none of them (BB perhaps excepted but he’s almost certainly got single or double suited aces on that betting line where I have Kings). Yes these hands can be predicted with some level of certainty. You can put players on hand ranges based on commonly-spouted PLO wisdom that regular players follow.

    We are all guilty of assessing situations in a biased way to our benefit, or Monday morning quarterbacking based on results. But in this situation I discounted the likelihood that someone had a king high FD for the exact reason you put the discismer in the final line of your first post: “I probably don’t need to tell you this ...”. Everyone who plays PLao regularly knows this rule. They might violate it sometimes, but not in huge multi-way pots where others are in and all that’s left is to call. I’m not as experienced as most, but that draw seems highly unlikely. And if they don’t have lesser FDs, all that’s left is to block each others boat outs. I’m not convinced I’m right. But no one has yet given me any analysis that convinced me otherwise. You can say “they might have a lesser FD” but you haven’t addressed that most plo regulars think that’s a fundamental error. I would love to hear from Terp or Freelunch too.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,157Subscriber
    Jonesey said:
    These guys are loose, but they’re not stupid or inexperienced. Every one of them would have given the same advice: don’t play a non nut FD.... Yes these hands can be predicted with some level of certainty. You can put players on hand ranges based on commonly-spouted PLO wisdom that regular players follow.
    From your first post:
    "V1, (MP2 $2100) very laggy 50ish Ohio loud drunk tourist w 2100, been vpip-ing literally 100% of hands.

    V2 (HJ 400) hip hop garb decked out 30 something LA Asian LAG but not as loose as V1. Been up and down, willing to call large flop, turn bets w any 2 pair.

    V3 (button 600) 30 year old Australian tourist been playing moderately tight but open raises in EP a lot.

    V4 (BB 225) tight 50 year old local Asian been playing tight aggressive, good player but has been taking a beating. Rebuys $200 each time he gets felted which has been a lot. Likes to get all in w good hands as quickly as possible."

    There is absolutely nothing in your description of at least two and probably 3 of these guys that says, "listens to solid, nitty advice and only plays for the nuts." In fact, the data you gave leads to the exact opposite conclusion.

    You say you're not swayed by anything you've heard, and that's fine, I could be totally wrong. I acknowledged that already, but it doesn't seem like you're willing to do that yourself. A drunk VPIP'ing 100%, a kid pushing any 2p, and a stuck guy who only buys in short and hopes to spin it up, these 3 guys could totally listen to solid advice and would never show up with a non-NFD, And that it's impossible for one of them to show up with a straight with a lol hand like JT65, thus not blocking the FH draw that you insist they 100% must block. But really it seems like you want to hear that your play was entirely correct.

    I said that all three of us itt have lots to work on in our game, but that doesn't mean that G and I aren't able to point out a couple of holes in your thnking. But you ain't here to hear any of that. I think my responses have been thoughtful and respectful, and I've used your own descriptions to highlight a couple of things you may have missed.

    Heck man, even if you said, "I know I may be giving up some EV but this is a chance at a super session that I haven't yet had in PLO," I'd say, I hear ya bro, and as long as you have clarity, go for it! But w/e, the conversation didn't go that way. I do thank you for posting, this spot has given me plenty to think about. But I don't do internet back and forths where people aren't really trying to hear each other, so I'm out.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    edited August 2019
    If you think I’m not hearing you, you’re mistaken. I do hear you. But there’s a difference between hearing and being persuaded. I have an British university Econ degree and I’m trained at studying and analyzing rationales, percentages, and tendencies. If I’m not persuaded it’s not because I’m a fool. But I very much appreciate your comments and I’ve listened to everyone of them.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    Here is the kind of thing that would persuade me, if someone said “I have played 800 sessions of live low limit PLO in the past three years, in my experience loose regular PLO players would call with a less the nut flush draw frequently even after there has been a pot, call and repot ahead of them in the -flop.” I only have a few live sessions, and I don’t believe that statement is true, but I don’t have the experience to dispute it. No one has said that.

    The BB is too good a player to be in w a FD. V1 has a straight 99.9% of the time. So it’s the last 2 we’re discussing.
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,309Pro
    @jonsey Ive been on a bit of vacation so I did not see this.

    Skipping to the question you used this hand to answer which was "What is the point of PF raising in a game like this?"

    Or: What should we do in PLO if any number of raises does not isolate but instead ends up with 4-5 players per flop and lower SPR? I lean towards your solution of keeping pots small pre if I can and not trying to isolate when it does not actually work. I think a lot of people disagree with me on this a as they are thinking "get the money in with the best hand" is all there is to think about. Thats probably true if you have an infinite bankroll and the emotional fortitude to manage large swings with long down trends but thats not reality for most.

    I find it easiest to think of this starting with old school Sklansky theory of poker premise that the only source of profits is others mistakes. Given that we dont have infinite pain tolerance and bankroll it seems reasonable to think about creating a variance reduction strategy by focusing on creating spots where the villains make the most expensive mistakes where we have the most edge.

    Put another way - would you rather put 500bb in pre when you have a 5% edge or post when you might have a 30% edge? Of course it does not really work that way as you have to pay by putting $x in pre and there is a y% change we increase our equity post. So why not keep pre$x down by keeping pots small and y% large by having a good preflop range? So instead of raising a lot pre when not try to move the game so you get as many chances as possible at small X large Y

    Another way I like to think of it is instead of thinking of the game stakes as a $5 $5 game - if a lot of the time it costs $200 to see a four way flop we are not in a $5 $5 game but something more like a $10-25. Do you want to play a 10-25 at these stack debts and for your bankroll? It the answer is yes go ahead and raise pre. But if the answer is no then are you in the right game? Short stacking is probably the theoretical best exploit but its not fun is it really bad to try to just keep pre$x low ? But a legit answer might be you are not in the right game if you dont have the roll or pain tolerance for the effective stakes.

    by 1Jonesey
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    @freelunch Thank you for your input.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 316Subscriber
    Hey @jonesey thanks for the posts this month. I brought up this hand on the podcast released today. Keep the posts coming and I’ll do a more consistent job responding with my work schedule slowing down.
    by 1Jonesey
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 149Subscriber
    Thanks Terp, can't wait to hear the comments and learn. I started to add PLO to my game selection repertoire 3 months ago. Spent 2 months studying before I played a hand, now I've got about 20 sessions of 1/2 at Aria and Encore, and I'm ahead. Thanks so much for the great content. It's working! Still tons to learn.
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