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$2/$5 What solves this problem?

ds2uared Posts: 305Subscriber
This is more of a broad question, but what information solves this problem? Combo work? 3! and 4! theory? Putting my phone down during hands I don't play and paying attention?

Villain smart, late 20's local who always wants to bump game up to $5/$5 so he can match my stack. Has full repertoire of plays available to him. 3bets often, and seems to recognize right configurations to do so. (LAG opens CO $20, V3! $65 ATs otb). Slows aggressiveness when he plays me but versus others, he really does go after weakness. And most of the regs where I play will overfold when the pot gets big. He doesn't seem to have the touch with the downbet early in the hand and plays more by feel, worried others will view it as weakness and play back at him (from what I've seen versus our competition he might be right).

Hero likely viewed as competent. Talked shop a couple times with villain. He is aware I will call him down lighter than most without too much monetary concern. Probably views me as solid.

3 limps. Hero $1,200 raises to $40 from LJ T T. V 3! $140 from HJ. Mp1 calls. Hero calls.

Pot $430. Flop 8 7 3. Check, check. Villain bets $200. Mp2 calls. Hero calls.

Pot $1,030. Turn 6. Check, check, check.

River 7. Check, check, villain bets $450. Fold. Hero?

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Comments

  • JLongo12 Posts: 45Subscriber
    I think a 4! pre is too aggressive as we'd have to fold to a ship. Combo wise, there are an infinite number of overcards to overpairs in V's range. Not to mention we do beat some value: 99. And we have blockers to the nuts: 10-9s. We unblock missed spades. Sucks the river bet feels value heavy but if we're not calling this hand here, what are we calling?
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited August 22
    The river seems like a good spot to try Bart’s bet-fold strategy esp since MP has checked and he’s more likely to have connected with that board. Maybe like a 35% PSB? It might keep V from stabbing with a bluff on the end.

    I’m not sure if the turn is a check or a bet for value/protection/info. But not sure you want to lead out here. Better to try and get to showdown cheaply?? @bart?
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    edited August 22
    Superfly said:
    The river seems like a good spot to try Bart’s bet-fold strategy esp since MP has checked and he’s more likely to have connected with that board. Maybe like a 35% PSB? It might keep V from stabbing with a bluff on the end.

    I’m not sure if the turn is a check or a bet for value/protection/info. But not sure you want to lead out here. Better to try and get to showdown cheaply?? @bart?
    The river is not likely to be be a bluff, but why on earth would you want to stop villain from stabbing with a bluff?

    I do not see how a turn bet is correct, but I can see an argument for a river bet. Personally, I think it's too thin.
    by 1CycleV
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    I think in this case you have to make a GTO basically.

    The fish in the hand very likely has nothing or a weak hand and the absolute amount of $450 is enough to get him to fold.
    The question is you. What do you call his 3b and XC, X, X. He is also in his early 20s which means he will have more balls than brains. He pretty much can pin your range and the range of the fish down. He knows you will call him light.

    So basically you have to put in his range with frequency of betting and make a mathematical call enough not to be exploited. The bet vs the fish is a gimme bet in which the fish will fold most of the time because $450 is a large bet to him. So he is targeting you since he knows he can't beat the fish most of the time but the fish will fold very often.

    His sizing is only 40% of the pot. He only has to win 2 of 5 times as a bluff to make it successful.

    Since he 3bs light you have all sorts of hands in his range that include draws on this board. Your's and the fishes 3b call range don't include that board. You beat the fish most of the time.

    I'd probably lean on calling without doing the math since there are only 18 combos of pairs that beat you and at least 15 combos of FDs he can have that busted the river. He also can have a few GSSD that busted too J9s, T9s, no sets though. His bet is polarized to a big pair or a busted draw.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,027Subscriber
    I think you played it fine on all streets, as long as you called the river.
    by 1Jonesey
  • ds2uared Posts: 305Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    Hero calls. V shows JJ.


    Thanks for the feedback.
  • pocket11s Posts: 138Subscriber
    edited August 23
    I think the river sizing was the giveaway. He’s betting 40% pot into 2 people on a 87367 board where he’s likely to get called by atleast one person given both of you called his flop cbet. This is a lot more value than bluff.
    by 1fozbo
  • JLongo12 Posts: 45Subscriber
    So we assume V has it every time he bets small OTR into 2 people? Do we only call with 2p+ here?
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    Garland said:
    Superfly said:
    The river seems like a good spot to try Bart’s bet-fold strategy esp since MP has checked and he’s more likely to have connected with that board. Maybe like a 35% PSB? It might keep V from stabbing with a bluff on the end.

    I’m not sure if the turn is a check or a bet for value/protection/info. But not sure you want to lead out here. Better to try and get to showdown cheaply?? @bart?
    The river is not likely to be be a bluff, but why on earth would you want to stop villain from stabbing with a bluff?

    I do not see how a turn bet is correct, but I can see an argument for a river bet. Personally, I think it's too thin.
    @Garland. If we had a stronger holding we wouldn’t want to prevent a bluff. But in close spots like this I often like the bet fold strategy, which enables me to name my price if called and I lose, or to fold more confidently if V comes over the top.

    In this case it didn’t really make much difference because the amount I would have bet was not much below what V bet. But there are cases where passive play with middling hands like this, while correct, leads LAGs to apply tons of pressure on later streets and force you into guessing games for stacks. This may happen more at 5-10 than 2-5, IDK. But I try to avoid such situations and the bet fold strategy is one tool I use to do that.

    Not sure if that is optimal, but seems to make sense to me on the surface. If there are holes in my thinking, or a better way to avoid being put to these high-variance guessing game decisions, I def would like to hear other ideas.


  • BartBart Posts: 5,921AdministratorLeadPro
    Superfly said:
    The river seems like a good spot to try Bart’s bet-fold strategy esp since MP has checked and he’s more likely to have connected with that board. Maybe like a 35% PSB? It might keep V from stabbing with a bluff on the end.

    I’m not sure if the turn is a check or a bet for value/protection/info. But not sure you want to lead out here. Better to try and get to showdown cheaply?? @bart?
    You have to be able to get called by worse in order for this to be a bet. I hate block betting when that can't happen. Betting so that "a LAG won't put you to the test" is not a reason to block the river. Also if you did bet at the end it would be really really strange if you got raised, holding two of the 10s.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,921AdministratorLeadPro
    Fuzzypup said:


    His sizing is only 40% of the pot. He only has to win 2 of 5 times as a bluff to make it successful.

    This is not correct. If he bets 40% pot the he only needs to get it through is 2/7 or 28.5% of the time.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    You are right I forgot to include his bet.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited August 23
    Bart said:
    Also if you did bet at the end it would be really really strange if you got raised, holding two of the 10s.
    I agree with this but I think it supports my strategy. We’re playing against a V who “really goes after weakness.” The passive line we’ve taken is exactly the type of scenario such a V looks for. Therefore, instead of allowing V to put us in “the guessing game for stacks” situation, we short circuit that risk with a blocking bet and basically name our own price if we’re value owned.

    And there are some hands we beat. A 3bet from a LAG in HJ vs a LJ open to 40 with three limps could be pretty wide, no? At a minimum, 99 and some suited connectors are in there with an aggressive LAG, I would think.

    Am I totally off base here? I mean I understand the drawbacks of block betting in general. But in this spot with a decent but vulnerable hand vs a V who likes to put a lot of pressure on, I think I see some benefit.

  • jojacks Posts: 85Subscriber
    edited August 23
    @Superfly Hero might be good, but will V call with these hands? And if you know that V is bluffing too much, then you gain more by allowing him to bluff.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    Bart said:
    Also if you did bet at the end it would be really really strange if you got raised, holding two of the 10s.
    I agree with this but I think it supports my strategy. We’re playing against a V who “really goes after weakness.” The passive line we’ve taken is exactly the type of scenario such a V looks for. Therefore, instead of allowing V to put us in “the guessing game for stacks” situation, we short circuit that risk with a blocking bet and basically name our own price if we’re value owned.

    And there are some hands we beat. A 3bet from a LAG in HJ vs a LJ open to 40 with three limps could be pretty wide, no? At a minimum, 99 and some suited connectors are in there with an aggressive LAG, I would think.

    Am I totally off base here? I mean I understand the drawbacks of block betting in general. But in this spot with a decent but vulnerable hand vs a V who likes to put a lot of pressure on, I think I see some benefit.

    This pot is mulit-way, so there is some shared responsibility when it comes to bluffing. This along with the river bet size and turn check indicates Villain probably has the best hand.
    In order for the river bet to be correct, you would have to be called by 99 and maybe an 8. Villain played it exactly like an overpair that was properly pot controlling the turn. Not my preferred play, but river all-in as a bluff with TT blockers makes more sense than any blocker type bet.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    @Garland, we don’t know the Vs bet size at the decision point under discussion, so we can’t use that as a factor in reading the Vs hand. I think it’s wrong to assume V has the best hand when it’s our turn to act on the river.

    Also not sure “shared responsibility” (ie, being multi-way) will keep an aggressive V from putting us in a very tough spot with a big polarized bet after both players have taken passive lines in the hand and both have checked the river.

    As for comments about how we want to let known bluffers bluff, I’d agree if we had a stronger hand. With our specific middling hand, I see benefit in making it difficult for V to blow us off our hand with a bluff. I see it as improving our chance to realize our equity while setting our own showdown price in the event we’re behind.

    Anyway, I’ve made my case and am obviously in the minority here, so on to the next HH and learning opportunity! Thanks for the discussion All.
  • ds2uared Posts: 305Subscriber
    Bart said:
    Also if you did bet at the end it would be really really strange if you got raised, holding two of the 10s.
    @Bart. Is there a stack depth combined with a level of villain aggression that makes this a feasible check-raise to turn TT into a bluff? Is it ever truly necessary?

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    edited August 26
    Superfly said:
    @Garland, we don’t know the Vs bet size at the decision point under discussion, so we can’t use that as a factor in reading the Vs hand. I think it’s wrong to assume V has the best hand when it’s our turn to act on the river.

    Also not sure “shared responsibility” (ie, being multi-way) will keep an aggressive V from putting us in a very tough spot with a big polarized bet after both players have taken passive lines in the hand and both have checked the river.

    As for comments about how we want to let known bluffers bluff, I’d agree if we had a stronger hand. With our specific middling hand, I see benefit in making it difficult for V to blow us off our hand with a bluff. I see it as improving our chance to realize our equity while setting our own showdown price in the event we’re behind.

    Anyway, I’ve made my case and am obviously in the minority here, so on to the next HH and learning opportunity! Thanks for the discussion All.
    @Superfly

    There were several messages I'm trying to convey, but it's probably getting intermingled.

    1. As played early on before results came out I had already predicted the river villain bet is not likely a bluff based on the action, multi-way pot nature and bet sizing. Villain has all the overpairs in his range and is most likely taking 99 to showdown. I would actually fold river to that bet.

    2. At the river point when it's our turn, I declared TT bet to be too thin. Let's assume you're not betting to get a better hand to fold. Then you are betting to get a worse hand to call, you just need to count the combos of hands that would call that you beat vs. the hands that beat you.

    (A) Hands we beat 99 (6 combos), A8s (3 combos) = 9 combos (let me know if you see others)
    (B) Hands we are beaten by AA/KK/QQ/JJ (6x4 combos) = 24 combos

    Unless you can find other hand we beat, we are beaten well more than 50% of the time. This clearly indicates checking is correct.

    3. If we determine we cannot bet for value, then our other option is to let villain blast off with air on the river. Now it doesn't matter our hand strength. You do not need a stronger hand to catch a bluff. All you need is a bluff catcher. Candidates to bluff catch include any hand you could reasonably call on the flop for value.

    Let's suppose he has AK, AQ, A T/A wheel. (Given villain is declared as smart, he should actually bet the turn on some of these and not bet AK/AQ on the flop, but let's suspend belief for a moment). Then if we bet, he's going to fold out his air, but if we check he might make a desperation bluff attempt. By betting you are forfeiting giving him rope to hang himself. If it were a bluff, it would probably be an all-in bet.
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