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Crazy Spot. All 3 options are on the table.

Live 2/5. I have 1200, main villains cover.

UTG raises to 20, +1 calls, I call in cutoff with 7h6h. Button, SB, BB all call (Pretty nightmare spot with this hand 6 ways since I figure I'm about to get coolered).

Flop 7d 4h 3h (Pot 120)

Checked to UTG. UTG leads 75, UTG+1 raises to 275. Hero??

Reasons for Folding: I'm dead vs AA and a higher flush draw (which is what it really feels like rn). +1's range is gonna be horribly tight raising with 4 behind. UTG has been playing pretty snug so I think he 100% has an overpair. Also, I'm not doing too hot vs a set.

Reasons for calling: I think it's extremely unlikely UTG raises behind me or anyone else opens up the action again. I can call in position and realize my equity and re-evaluate on turn and river.

Reasons for raising: I can knock UTG out of the hand if he likely realizes that his overpair isn't doing too hot. In a heads up pot, I am at least flipping against every hand except a straight or a set both of which I have at least 35% against.

Honestly have no idea what to do and probably the toughest spot I've seen in the last year. Would love to get an opinion. @Bart

Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    edited August 22
    Funny enough I lean on folding. If you flat here your draw is obvious. You won't get paid on a 4 straight so really you have a naked low FD with 3 people left to act vs possibly a set or made hand 65s. If the raise was smaller maybe. You are getting 3:1 implied and have a 3:1 chance to hit OTR and this is really roughly 3.7:1 considering he has a set or a straight already.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,027Subscriber
    Maybe i've been playing too much PLO lately, but this seems like an easy fold, tbh. I'd have to be shown a straight and 2 black aces, with everyone behind me making pre-mucking movements, to consider the call. (Slight exaggerration but the point holds, I believe.)
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 92Subscriber
    I'd also fold. Heart may be no good here and even a 5 may be a chop at best. But, like you said v a pair and a higher flush draw you're in a bunch of trouble so I'm also folding here
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    My gut says 76s is probably better folded preflop from the CO vs UTG open and UTG1 call. Seems kind of speculative with 3 players left to act behind, but maybe ok in passive game.

    Luckily you got one of the best flops possible for your hand. With TP, FDFD and gutshot I think your hand is too strong to fold, but I don’t think you want to 3bet vs EP cbet and raise on the flop. Calling seems like the best and only play to me. You’re hoping for a 7, 6, 5, or heart on turn.

    Even if UTG comes over the top with a 3bet and UTG1 calls or shoves, you’re still getting close to 3:1 pot odds, which is enough to call with all your outs and two cards to come. Its possible you’re drawing dead to a bigger flush, but you still have your set, 2P and straight outs, which are probably clean. Even just those 9 outs give you about 36% equity to the river.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited August 22
    On second thought, given you have 17 outs on the flop, maybe a big 3bet is in order here? They may not all be clean, but that flop hits you harder than either of the EP players. So may be at least an option and or even the best move. Like to hear what others think.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    edited August 23
    Superfly said:
    On second thought, given you have 17 outs on the flop, maybe a big 3bet is in order here? They may not all be clean, but that flop hits you harder than either of the EP players. So may be at least an option and or even the best move. Like to hear what others think.
    He doesn't have 17 outs. Very likely someone already has his pair beat and 2 pair is no good. And if it is he isn't getting paid because it makes a straight for a 5.
    His GS outs are no good because it the 4 straight hits he isn't getting paid. And it's not the nuts. And he can already be facing the nuts.
    All he has is a FD basically vs a bet and a raise into 6 people.

    Very likely his FD is good but he is facing a very possible stronger hand in a set or a straight. So if he is facing a made straight he needs 4 for 1 to call and he doesn't have it.
    by 1CycleV
  • hustlin Posts: 299Subscriber
    very interesting spot indeed.

    I think its reasonable that u can fold here.
    however given the situation I dont mind jamming here. The reason is we got the Gutter to a straight. this blocks combos of 56. If you have even a decent spec of fold equity here I'm jamming.

    with no gutter to a straight I dont mind a fold here.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    @fuzzypup, I’m not following you. You say “Very likely someone has his pair beat and 2P no good.” I agree overpairs are very likely. But I think you are ranging V too tight in assuming He has set or straight. He could very well be good if he hits his 6. I’d at least give partial outs here.

    You also discount his straight outs “because he isn’t getting paid” if he hits. But he doesn’t need any implied odds. He has the direct odds to make a call and call off if both Vs go all in.

    Bottom line, you’re folding this hand on the flop?
  • jojacks Posts: 85Subscriber
    @Superfly are you really considering folding this preflop? Stacks are 60x the raise size, and this is EXACTLY the type of hand that can win a big pot from tight EP ranges.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    @fuzzypup, I’m not following you. You say “Very likely someone has his pair beat and 2P no good.” I agree overpairs are very likely. But I think you are ranging V too tight in assuming He has set or straight. He could very well be good if he hits his 6. I’d at least give partial outs here.

    You also discount his straight outs “because he isn’t getting paid” if he hits. But he doesn’t need any implied odds. He has the direct odds to make a call and call off if both Vs go all in.

    Bottom line, you’re folding this hand on the flop?
    IF both villians go all in....

    Vs a set and an overpair (calls or folds) your 37%
    Vs a straight you are 2:1 to win.
    Vs an overpair and a FD your 29%
    Vs 2 pair and a better flush your dead.
    Vs a set and a better flush your dead.

    The 2 pair scenarios are rare in this spot considering who bet and who raised UTG and UTG+1 since 2 pair is either 74s or 43s which are 2 unlikely UTG+1 call ranges. So you are left with 0 gap SCs, sets, other overpairs, big FDs like A 5 or A Q and your best bet is if they both get it all in. In this case you are at best break even. But the equity when you are dead drops the other equities averages to below what you need.

    So say UTG shoves, and the UTG+1 folds for whatever reason or there is a min-3b and shove. So you call? Now you are facing a made hand.

    You are risking so much for at best a very marginal +EV situation.

    You have invested $20 and now want to risk $1200 on almost a coin flip. Remember your raiser is raising 4 other people into a made board in a low stakes game. Very likely he has 65s or a set.

    There is also the future EV impact of this hand. Our hero isn't a pro who is immune to losing $1200. If he loses this will affect his play mentally.

    Remember bad players best shot at you are spots like this where its break even. You have the advantage over time. Use it. Don't take marginal spots in huge pots when you only invested $20.

    If this way a 3 way pot with the raisers in MP and LP this might be a little different but it's a 6 way pot with UTG and UTG+1
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    @fuzzypup, so you’re folding the flop? Or are you saying call but don’t raise? I can get behind the latter, but I’m not folding for $275.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    I'm saying fold. Look you have a range of situations in this hand and some of them are GOLDEN for you to ship it in. But when you average out all situations this is a hopeful risk at best for minor profit, very minor considering all the factors. The results don't matter you play the frequency, ranges, and tendencies.

    As a note there is about a 20% chance someone behind you has the same FD.

    Folding is -$20 that's it. I think your overall EV in continuing is more that losing $20 considering everything.

  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    @fuzzypup, guess we’ll just have to just partially agree on this one. Given the multi-way (almost bomb pot) configuration, I agree it doesn’t make sense for H to reraise. And I agree that a 3-way AI is at best marginal EV for us. I’d agree a fold is the safe play in that eventuality. But at the decision point in question a fold seems way to weak for me.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    You could make this call if you picked up tells on your left of folding and the raiser can't fold a set no matter what. Still marginal.

    In this case assuming almost always the original better just calls because it looks like he has an overpair.
    $275 to win $670 = ~2.4 direct odds.

    Pot will be $945 OTT.... You need to make around $500 to make a slight profit if I am correct if you hit any one of your 12 outs because your pair outs are no good here most of the time.

    Now assume that player who raised never folds a set. You could play it as a bet on the turn for $450 and a bet on the river for $450 if the board doesn't pair or a 4 straight, 4 flush doesn't come.

    These are a lot of ifs.
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