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5/5: Should I Call a River Bet After Underrepping My Hand on a Monotone Flop?

Jax1234 Posts: 53Member
edited September 4 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5/5 Portland Meadows. The villain in this hand is one of the better regulars on the Poker Guys "poker time" stream. I am the effective stack in this hand with around $1650 while the villain has around $2000. I am in the lojack. The villain is on the button. I have ace jack

Pre-flop: I raise to $25. The cutoff and villain call. The blinds fold.

Flop ($85): Ace 6 3 I check, the cutoff checks, and the villain bets $45. I call and the cutoff folds.

Turn ($175): 4 I check and the villain bets $95. I call.

River ($365): 4 I check and the villain bets $200.

Should I call on this river card after underrepping my hand on the flop? Doesn't my flop check and the passive line I took through the duration of the hand make it look like I have kings or queens rather than a reasonably strong ace? Based off of what I've seen from this villain on the "poker time" stream, I excluded ace-queen and ace-king as possible holdings because this villain would three-bet pre-flop with ace queen and ace king on the button. I also think the villain would three-bet with king/queen of clubs and possibly king-ten clubs and queen/ten clubs, the remaining suited broadway clubs, but I didn't exclude them from his range.

The value hands that I'm ahead of on the river are Ace/ten-ace/seven suited, ace-five suited, and ace-deuce suited assuming that he was fooled into believing that I did not have an ace with my flop check.

The bluffs that I'm ahead of are king/queen offsuit, king/jack offsuit, king/ten offsuit with the king of clubs or queen/jack offsuit, queen/ten offsuit with the queen of clubs.

The value hands to which I'm losing are all flopped flushes and then non-flush bluffs that get there on the turn and river like ace/four suited, four/five, five/seven.

This villain has no previous history with me as this time represented the first time I've ever played in Portland. We've only played for two hours but I was up a decent amount on the session before the start of the hand and may appear reasonably competent as I have not limp-called any pots pre-flop and have raised every hand that I've entered. Quad aces is the only hand that I've shown at showdown.
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Comments

  • tbake6 Posts: 15Subscriber
    I think he has more value here than any bluffs. All of the hands you named that you beat like Ax probably aren't betting all 3 streets here. He has all the flushes and full houses and just not many, if any bluffs
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,844Subscriber
    I'd fold. It would exploitive. Villain bets river IP value sizing, we call two streets we got A ton of Ax hands that want show down.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    If this guy is a fish I'd fold.
    If this guy plays fairly well I might lean on calling. I'd actually construct his hand range on the river. I need 25% of his range to be bluffs. It is also important to note WHERE you raised because that changes his value range

    If you raised late less likely he has AK/AQ
    If you raised early more likely.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited September 4
    I feel like good Vs would typically bet more on turn and river if bluffing to try and maximize fold equity. Don’t know how he perceives you, but not sure most good Vs would follow thru with a med-sized river bluff when you could have the made flush or now 2P w big kicker. Seems value-y to me and I just don’t see many likely bluffs. Close call and right or wrong I sometimes call in such spots if I’m not sure what an unknown V is up to (for future reference). But I think fold is probably the more profitable decision.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    I feel like good Vs would typically bet more on turn and river if bluffing to try and maximize fold equity. Don’t know how he perceives you, but not sure most good Vs would follow thru with a med-sized river bluff when you could have the made flush or now 2P w big kicker. Seems value-y to me and I just don’t see many likely bluffs. Close call and right or wrong I sometimes call in such spots if I’m not sure what an unknown V is up to (for future reference). But I think fold is probably the more profitable decision.
    His bet size is pretty good because our hero has played it so weak. Effectively hero's hand is some weaker ace or an underpair. Weaker might lean on calling like AJ, AT (24) while underpairs folding TT-KK (24) and on occasion slowplayed flush say 5 combos. Also the bet is $200 which in 5/5 most players consider that a large bet in absolute amounts.

  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited September 5
    @fuzzypup. So you think a savvy V is bluffing when he bets 55% pot on the river after getting called on the flop and turn? That seems like an smart, effective bluff? The poster made it clear that this is one of the better regs in the game, so seems unlikely to me that this is a bluff. Also, $200 might (might!) be considered a big river bet in an absolute sense in a 2-5 game, but not in 5-5 with effective stacks over $1500.
  • Jax1234 Posts: 53Member
    edited September 5
    Spoiler:
    I called the river bet and unfortunately the villain showed the 8/9 of clubs for a flopped flush


    My two follow-up questions regarding this hand are as follows:

    (1) For those advocating a fold, should I have folded on the turn or should I just call the turn with the intention of playing fifth street chicken if the fourth club did not come on the river.

    (2) In retrospect, I do not think it made much sense for me to underrepresent a hand like ace/jack offsuit with the jack of clubs on this type of board. Besides flopped sets and flopped flushes, what hands would be the type of hands to underrep and play passively for either pot control or deception against a competent and aggressive villain on this type of board?
  • fishcake Posts: 962Subscriber
    River is an easy fold. He called button so he should have very few KcX here as bluffs. The only one I would even have is KcQx. There's not that many combos here compared to value flushes and boats, etc. I don't think checking flop is a bad line at all oop against two players. You have to fold the river here. Definitely don't fold turn for this price with this particular hand. Your checking isn't for pot control either and get that out of your head at 5/5 and you'll be a better player. You're checking to induce some bets and get value later whereas it's often more difficult to get value on monotone boards because live players generally play them so passively. imo.
  • fishcake Posts: 962Subscriber
    edited September 5
    and tbh if you think he calls with KJo and all those garbage offsuit hands preflop you listed then your read is wrong and he's a fish. No debate there.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    @fuzzypup. So you think a savvy V is bluffing when he bets 55% pot on the river after getting called on the flop and turn? That seems like an smart, effective bluff? The poster made it clear that this is one of the better regs in the game, so seems unlikely to me that this is a bluff. Also, $200 might (might!) be considered a big river bet in an absolute sense in a 2-5 game, but not in 5-5 with effective stacks over $1500.
    Don't think in absolutes. Go back to the Theory of Poker. Say our villain has a hand that can't possibly win at showdown, like 2 x 2 but he estimates that ~45% of the time you will fold a stronger hand then betting 50% pot is the correct play assuming you will fold 45% of the time. If he pots it you still only have a 45% chance of folding so why risk more. I have made this play many times at the poker table. It is in a spot where the opponent has an absolute calling hand or an absolute folding hand and I can't beat any of his range.

    Note that I said you need to construct a bluffing range for him. You never mentioned where you raised from. And I am going on generalizations about the person. If he plays on some show and you say he is good then I am giving him a lot of credit for advanced plays.

    Also note his perception of you. He might not perceive you as good as you are. Maybe he hasn't played with you enough.

    I have had many regs who at 1st I thought were good then later to realize were bad and vice versa.

    Shit I know one younger guy who plays for a living and he is so bad that I almost can't ever lose to him. He is just excellent and picking the fishiest tables. Read 1-2 books, doesn't do math work, plays by feel, even calls without odds. It's truly mind boggling. He puts in like 60 hours a week.






  • Jax1234 Posts: 53Member
    Fuzzy,

    I wrote that I raised preflop from the lojack.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    edited September 5
    Musta missed it.

    Means his range is wider and your ace is good in most cases unless he has 2 pair + or a flush.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    Superfly said:
    @fuzzypup. So you think a savvy V is bluffing when he bets 55% pot on the river after getting called on the flop and turn? That seems like an smart, effective bluff? The poster made it clear that this is one of the better regs in the game, so seems unlikely to me that this is a bluff. Also, $200 might (might!) be considered a big river bet in an absolute sense in a 2-5 game, but not in 5-5 with effective stacks over $1500.
    Don't think in absolutes. Go back to the Theory of Poker. Say our villain has a hand that can't possibly win at showdown, like 2 x 2 but he estimates that ~45% of the time you will fold a stronger hand then betting 50% pot is the correct play assuming you will fold 45% of the time. If he pots it you still only have a 45% chance of folding so why risk more. I have made this play many times at the poker table. It is in a spot where the opponent has an absolute calling hand or an absolute folding hand and I can't beat any of his range.

    Note that I said you need to construct a bluffing range for him. You never mentioned where you raised from. And I am going on generalizations about the person. If he plays on some show and you say he is good then I am giving him a lot of credit for advanced plays.

    Also note his perception of you. He might not perceive you as good as you are. Maybe he hasn't played with you enough.

    I have had many regs who at 1st I thought were good then later to realize were bad and vice versa.

    Shit I know one younger guy who plays for a living and he is so bad that I almost can't ever lose to him. He is just excellent and picking the fishiest tables. Read 1-2 books, doesn't do math work, plays by feel, even calls without odds. It's truly mind boggling. He puts in like 60 hours a week.
    Blah blah blah. Whatever dude. I know we try to stay cordial in this forum, but I think many in addition to myself would appreciate it if you toned down the “I’m the authority and I’m going to bestow my expertise and instruction on you” attitude. Try adopting a tone of “we’re all studying and learning together” and I think your posts will be better received and appreciated. Anyway, that’s how I feel about it.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    Suit yourself said the lazy tailor.
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