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Encore 2-5, facing triple barrel river overbet from LAG villain w underpair.

JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
edited September 10 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 encore, 1900 effective 5 handed

H: (1900) has OMC looks but I’ve been catching cards and playing a few more hands than usual over the past 45 minutes. Shown down a two hands from the bottom of my PF range that flopped well but no bluffs.

V (3000) is a young man from japan who speaks very little English wearing expensive designer clothes, as does his girl sitting behind him. Was moderarely tight but has opened up playing very LAGgy since table got short handed.

H opens $20 in CO w 9s9h. V calls in SB. Others fold.

Flop ($45) is Js, 8d, 4h, V x, H cbet $25, V raises to $75, H calls

T ($195) Td, V bets $150, H calls

R ($495) 4s V bets $600. H???
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Comments

  • LatvianMissile Posts: 92Subscriber
    I'd probably fold. It looks like some J8 BS. Nothing really bricked out here and if he raised with 109 otf it hit the river (although I think most Vs would check a T). You're really only beating air or an 8 and there's not enough air here.
    by 1Jonesey
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
    I think I can exclude a lot of strong hands here. He3! Quite a bit so overpairs, JJ and probably TT are out. AJ is borderline 3! For him PF. 88, 44, A8, and A4 are good candidates in addition to J8. Not sure he would be this aggressive w KJ or QJ. JT would make sense and T9 but I block that. I really thought A8 and A4 were in his flatting PF range big time.

    Overbets always make me suspicious. And being short handed sometimes brings out big bluffs.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    I'd fold by the river. I would need evidence from past showdowns that this could be a bluff from this villain before entertaining making this type of hero call to an overbet.
    by 1Jonesey
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
    I'm not disagreeing with you, @garland, but I think we can probably agree this is an extremely polarized river bet? I wouldn't expect him to do this with medium strength hands.
  • rbenuck4 Posts: 11Subscriber
    I'm folding this river. We have 2 nines which block some of the bluffs villain may have (98), and even though we don't have diamonds, there are so many other hands in our range that we can call this river bet on (AJ, KJ, J10, overpairs, etc...). I think we can safely fold, especially to his sizing on the river.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    With that description the guy is an amateur.

    You block semi-bluff SDs = bad
    There is no FD on teh flop = bad
    He overbet $600 OTR = bad
    I rarely see people bluff big on the river, even more rare having a player like overbet bluffing OTR. His turn bet was very small compared to his river bet. He wouldn't need to bet that much to bluff here.
    He can't have some semi-bluff SD that turned a FD with a Tx hand = bad.
    You are OMC who just called the turn = bad


    The way the hand played out this looks like a set that made a boat+ on the river. He might be smart enough not to think you have a GSSD that hit the turn in most cases.

    I usually say construct a bluffing range but in this case his bet is so large OTR that the bluff would be well below what is needed to call.

    I'd really think back if he has overbet bluff like this or bet this large with marginal holdings.

    I'd fold.

    Now how could you make this hand easier? Bet more on the flop. If you bet more on the flop like $35 or $40 and he calls. you can X the turn and call his river bet. This makes for an easier decision, saves money, and increases his bluffing range by quite a lot.

    If you were planning to X the turn definitely bet larger on the flop. If he XRs a large bet, you call, then he barrel bombs the turn, you can lean more on folding the turn because you block SDs.

    This play might not work on pros because they see patterns better but it works in bad players. What they will see is that you bet large when you have it and when you have a different hand. Then they see you B,X,B then try and bluff where you call and it frustrates them. This balancing of betting confuses the fish to the point they start shifting their play to be more predicable toward you. This leads to better decision making on your part. Overall it saves and makes money. This is just my observation from when I play. This doesn't mean you shouldn't have smaller betting like in this hand. It just means sometimes betting larger is better due to a variety of factors vs the right opponents.

    On the flop take time to plan your hand and play out the logic tree for what you will do in what situation realizing the SPRs and your opponent or typical opponent behavior if you have no reads.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    Jonesey said:
    I'm not disagreeing with you, @garland, but I think we can probably agree this is an extremely polarized river bet? I wouldn't expect him to do this with medium strength hands.
    Yes, it's polarizing but he can realistically have many different two pair/set combos. This is what he's representing and some people go for the kill. I'm not going to be the guinea pig with this hand in this scenario to find out what this polarizing bet really means. I'm going to give him credit for now and move on.

    This post feels results oriented. Did you fold and he show something like A Q?
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited September 10
    Jonesey, next time say “Kaado o ichido dake misete moraimasen ka?”after the hand. That’s “won’t you please show me your cards this one time?” in Japanese.

    “Jyu dola o haraimasu yo!” I’ll pay you 10 dollars.

    When you see he bluffed you say “baka yaro” (roughly equivalent to f*cking idiot). Be ready to fight. Don’t say this if he has tattoos and a missing pinky finger (yakuza).
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
    I'm nominating Superfly's response for the Budweiser funniest post of the year.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:

    Now how could you make this hand easier? Bet more on the flop. If you bet more on the flop like $35 or $40 and he calls. you can X the turn and call his river bet. This makes for an easier decision, saves money, and increases his bluffing range by quite a lot.

    If you were planning to X the turn definitely bet larger on the flop. If he XRs a large bet, you call, then he barrel bombs the turn, you can lean more on folding the turn because you block SDs.

    This play might not work on pros because they see patterns better but it works in bad players. What they will see is that you bet large when you have it and when you have a different hand. Then they see you B,X,B then try and bluff where you call and it frustrates them. This balancing of betting confuses the fish to the point they start shifting their play to be more predicable toward you. This leads to better decision making on your part. Overall it saves and makes money.
    This is a very interesting suggestion. Everything you read and study now screams "don't give bet sizing tells" so I've become very nitty about making the same bet sizing pre-flop (standard raise plus $$ for prior limpers), and the size of my C-bets. Only after the c-bet do I start varying sizes because then the hand is complex enough not to be creating tells for anyone but a Bot. I watch for bet sizing tells constantly. Are you saying I'm the only one doing that at 2/5 and 5/10 in Vegas? This is very interesting to me. Thanks.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
    Results:

    So everyone says fold. I said "fold" to myself. It's a pretty obvious fold right? All the math, all the ranging analysis, MDF, every way you look at this hand, it screams fold. But my read was he wanted a fold. The way he bet, the way he acted, was very strong. I had a gut feeling, or spidey sense, he was bluffing, and I came so close to calling.

    Then I decided to go with the CLP forum's suggestions (I could hear you nitty lot flaming me for the call in my head before you even wrote out the insults) and folded. He showed A8hh and made clear he was showing what he considered to be a bluff (@superfly you'll be pleased to know he kindly offered to help me commit hari-kari to alleviate my shame in having folded).

    So when do we ignore the math and ranging analysis and go with traditional old Texas poker instinct born of the million hands we've played over the past 25 years?
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    edited September 10
    Jonesey said:
    Results:

    So everyone says fold. I said "fold" to myself. It's a pretty obvious fold right? All the math, all the ranging analysis, MDF, every way you look at this hand, it screams fold. But my read was he wanted a fold. The way he bet, the way he acted, was very strong. I had a gut feeling, or spidey sense, he was bluffing, and I came so close to calling.

    Then I decided to go with the CLP forum's suggestions (I could hear you nitty lot flaming me for the call in my head before you even wrote out the insults) and folded. He showed A8hh and made clear he was showing what he considered to be a bluff (@superfly you'll be pleased to know he kindly offered to help me commit hari-kari to alleviate my shame in having folded).

    So when do we ignore the math and ranging analysis and go with traditional old Texas poker instinct born of the million hands we've played over the past 25 years?
    Problem with this is he's shown he's capable of bluffing a made hand. Just imagine how awful you're going to feel if you call and he shows up with a T.

    You're going to have stronger hands to call the river. You're gonna have your Jx, overpairs, sets, etc. Just stick to basic principles and you'll find your spots to call.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
    I like that advice. I think I would have called with Jx. 99 was just so weak.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    @jonesey, your mistake is no where near severe enough to warrant hara kiri. This time it will suffice for you to do what the yakuza sometimes do to atone for their mistakes: cut off the top digit of your little finger (yubitsume). No anesthetic and you have to do the cutting yourself.

    Pro tip: use a very sharp knife and make sure you cut thru the joint, not the bone. Send photo when your done.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited September 11
    Deleted. I misunderstood what you were saying.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    Jonesey said:
    This is a very interesting suggestion. Everything you read and study now screams "don't give bet sizing tells" so I've become very nitty about making the same bet sizing pre-flop (standard raise plus $$ for prior limpers), and the size of my C-bets. Only after the c-bet do I start varying sizes because then the hand is complex enough not to be creating tells for anyone but a Bot. I watch for bet sizing tells constantly. Are you saying I'm the only one doing that at 2/5 and 5/10 in Vegas? This is very interesting to me. Thanks.
    The key is don't think statically about how you play. Think dynamically and do actions vs opponents that make sense for the board, the ranges, the frequencies, the SPR, and your position. If your table dynamics allow for bluffing and you have an excellent grasp on bluffing hand ranges it should automatically balance out enough that it works where players don't realize that you are highly unbalanced.
    by 1Jonesey
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 109Subscriber
    Thanks fly. Perfect instructions.
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited September 11
    PPS. Ah, I think I understand what you were saying now. You don’t match your flop cbet to the size of your preflop bet. But you do cbet the same amount each time. That’s not a good rule of thumb either. Different flop scenarios require different cbet sizing.

    Watch Ki’s Fast Track videos on flop play if you have not already done so.
    by 1Jonesey
  • Superfly Posts: 321Subscriber
    edited September 11
    Jonesey said:
    Thanks fly. Perfect instructions.
    @jonesey. LMFAO. Well done, grasshopper.
    by 1Jonesey
  • Jax1234 Posts: 53Member
    Any merit to checking back on the flop? Nines does not seem to be the type of hand on that flop that can easily withstand a check-raise and then call two streets of bets from a loose agressive player without hitting a set or running straight cards.

    Taking away a street that a loose aggressive player can utilize to bluff us off a medium-strength hand on that type of flop such as nines probably works against this player type. You can just call the turn and river against him as his bets on the turn and river would probably be smaller.
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