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10/10 Parx 66 UTG

ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 23SubscriberProfessional
edited September 11 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is a clueless tourist. I have not seen him 3bet once in 3 hours at the table. Two headscratchers I observed:

HH1: I open MP to $30 with A K, SB calls, V calls in BB with J 6 . Flop: Q Q 7 . V leads $30, I call. Turn 9 . V checks, I bet $100, V calls. River 7 goes check/check. Villain said he knew I had a better flush and he would have folded to a large bet on a blank river (??)

HH2: V opens MP1 to $50 with AA, BTN calls, BB calls. Flop: AQJr. V checks, BTN bets $90, V calls. Turn: 3 bringing bdf. V checks, BTN bets $160, V calls. River: 7 completing bdf. Check, check, and V is good with his top set against BTNs QJ. He said that he was nervous about the flush coming in and may have folded to an overbet (which I doubt).

OTTH:
$2k effective.

Hero opens 66 UTG for $30 (bottom of my opening range), V flats in CO, BTN flats, SB flats, BB flats.

Flop: A K 2 ($150)

My analysis: I don't have many good bluffing candidates on this board, and actually 66 is a decent hand to use as a bluff as it has more equity against a calling range than a hand like 98 with a bdfd. In a vacuum I feel a small range bet cannot be awful on this board. I plan to evaluate the flop action and possibly lay down the hammer with an 80-100% pot sized bet on good turn cards (non A and non K), especially if I get called in 2 spots.

Check, check, Hero bets $50, V calls, fold, fold, fold.

Turn: 6 ($250)

Hero bets $175, and V snap raises to $400, Hero calls.

River: 7 ($1050)

Hero checks, V bets $300, Hero?

I mainly wanted to get feedback about the flop bet. I know a small range bet is theoretically okay in HU spots, but I don't know how being multiway affects things.

Obviously against a good player, raising here is automatic and we would expect to get calls from AK. But based on Villain's cautious tendencies observed in the HHs, and based on the fact we cannot be sure he never has AA or KK in his flatting range, I wonder if raising OTT or OTR is too thin.

Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    edited September 11
    Betting the flop into 4 other players with this hand is lighting money on fire. You have better candidates for bluffs including QJs/QTs/JTs with backdoor flush draws. That said this is a multi-way hand and with shared responsibility I don't think this planned multi-way barrel gets through enough to warrant the attempt.

    As played, kind of a sick spot based on villain not 3-betting once in 3 hours, but it could mean he was never dealt premium pairs. Given the villain type, I doubt he even 3-bets AKs pre and prefers to see a flop. In this type of spot, I would replay pre-flop in my head to see if villain took any time contemplating a re-raise. HH1 doesn't really concern me as much as HH2 where he was not aggressive either because he was slowplaying or because he was nut-fearing afraid of KT/rivered flush. If it's the latter, I would be very concerned.

    You have a clear at least call on the river. The bet size on the river is peculiar. Why less than the turn? Does he really have AA/KK and bet this much? I might make a min-click to $675 with the intention of folding to a jam expecting to get called by all 2 pair, 22 and maybe even KK given his nature, and only jammed if he has AA and maybe KK.
    by 1CycleV
  • Fetterfool Posts: 5Subscriber
    Given history I think this is just a call. Sure he has twice as many combos of value that you beat: nine AK and three 22 vs three AA and three KK, but if this guy is check calling top set when it's not the nuts I feel like you're actually beat here.

    As for the flop bet, you'll have to get another opinion. I just play 1-2 haha.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,844Subscriber
    I think we can raise here. We assuming he flats AA and KK which has to be very low frequency considering he still has BTN behind

    Combos that raise turn include 22, two pairs , and combos draws like AXcc. Also his River bet is somewhat small considering we called his turn raise and was PFR.

    I would raise to 700.
    by 1CycleV
  • BartBart Posts: 5,921AdministratorLeadPro
    From the work that I have done with Conlan and his use of proprietary software giving solutions multiway, I would tend to think that starting a bluff bet with 33-55 is slightly better than 66 because of the backdoor. I know you dont have that in your UTG range, but in 3 blind ante games most pocket pairs are supposed to be opened from up front as a note.

    In this specific spot, I think betting into this many people is not advisable, especially if you are worried about players trapping preflop with big hands (causing to not have the ability to mindlessly fire an AKx board).. As far as turn and river goes, obviously 99/100 times I am putting in a raise somewhere but perhaps your particular villain is the 1/100 where you just call. Bart
  • ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 23SubscriberProfessional
    edited September 11
    Garland said:
    Betting the flop into 4 other players with this hand is lighting money on fire. You have better candidates for bluffs including QJs/QTs/JTs with backdoor flush draws. That said this is a multi-way hand and with shared responsibility I don't think this planned multi-way barrel gets through enough to warrant the attempt.
    Thanks for the feedback. I am really interested in constructing baseline c-betting ranges for different board textures in multiway pots. Certainly the tools Bart mentioned would help. My concern is that we're hard-pressed to find enough bluffs on this board if we only include 12 combos of gutshots (with or w/o bdfd). As Janda showed in his book, if we're betting a range of pure value (100% equity hands) and pure bluffs (0% equity hands) across 3 streets (this is not accurate, as we're never perfectly polarized), with a standard bet sizing of around 1/2 pot per street, then the ratio of bluffs to value will vary like 2:1, 1:1, and 1:2 on flop, turn, and river, respectively. This last ratio corresponds to the fact that when betting half pot on the river, we need 33% bluffs to 66% value in order to make our opponent indifferent to calling with bluffcatchers. As I understand, in multiway pots, the main difference is that we need to tighten our definition of "value", as even strong HU hands like AQ on AK2 are much less strong against 4 ranges, any one of which can include A2s or AK. However, even if we restrict our multiway value range on AK2 to just {AA,KK,AK}, we have 15 combos of value, each of which has 90% equity or more against a standard continuing range (assuming our flop bet is called in 1 spot for simplicity) and therefore we need 30 combos of bluffs. Gutshots alone amount to 12 combos. Where do the other 18 combos come from? As far as I can tell, to balance our range we will need to include pocket pairs or really shitty hands like 87s.

    Obviously multiway is complicated, but it's difficult to find resources for this stuff, so I have to satisfy myself by using very loose approximations and playing around with equities and hand ranges in PokerCruncher.

    P.S. When we further account for the fact that AQ has >75% equity against a standard continuing range of {A2-AK, K7s+, KTo+,QJ,QT,JT,22}, we get another 12 combos of value and we can add another 12-24 combos of bluffs OTF (this is an estimation because I don't know the formulas for bluffing frequency when our range is not close to polarized).
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