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Value Bet or Check on the River in Two Situations?

Jax1234 Posts: 53Member
edited September 11 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hand 1: 1/2 uncapped game at the Golden Nugget. The villain in this hand appears to be a competent and aggressive player. He is the effective stack with $800. I have $1000. I am on the button. He is in the small blind. I have Ace King

Pre-flop: Hijack and cutoff limp. I raise to $18 on the button. The villain calls from the small blind. The big blind and the limpers fold.

Flop ($42): Ace Seven Five Villain checks, I bet $25, Villain then check-raises to $65. I call.

Turn ($172): Ten Villain bets $90. I call.

River ($352): Two Villain checks. Is this a value bet or a check? About an orbit earlier, I doubled up through this villain by hitting a set of queens against his pocket aces.

Hand 2: 2/5 at the Venetian. The villain in this hand again appears to be competent and aggressive. I am the effective stack with $950. The villain has $1300. He is utg. I am utg +1. I have 10 10

Pre-flop: The villain raises to $20. I reraise to $65. Everyone else folds to the villain who calls.

Flop: ($142) Seven Four Three He checks. I bet $75. He calls.

Turn: ($292): Jack He checks, I check.

River: ($292) Jack He checks. Is this a value bet or a check? This villain had just hit the $600 random seat half-hour drawing at the Venetian just a couple minutes before this hand commenced.


My thoughts are that hand #1 is a value bet on the river while hand #2 should be a check.
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Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    edited September 11
    We have opposite views on both hands regarding which to check and which to bet.

    Hand 1: Take the river showdown. Betting here is too thin. Not necessarily saying to do this, but if you're going to put in aggressive action, it should be on the turn with a raise where flush and combo draws still exist and a worse hand can still call. Now on the river, the draws brick out, and I doubt a competent player is going to pay you off with a worse hand. He may be savvy enough with 2 pair+ to try to pick off a bluff when draws brick.

    Hand 2: Not sure what that $600 random seat half-hour drawing has to do with this hand other than maybe his normal effective stack would have been $700? I think this is actually a clear value bet. Does he really have AA->QQ in his range based on no pre-flop 4-bet and action to the river? Don't really think so. Does he have a J and check on the river? Don't think so. The only reason not to bet the river is you think villain can potentially put you in a miserable spot by check-raising big. Think about the worse hands you are targeting and bet accordingly. He could call with 55/66/88/99/7x. I would bet ~$130 hoping villain is trying to snap off a bluff.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 92Subscriber
    On the river, I probably bet small on both of these. Probably 100 on the first hand as it looks like he missed his flush draw, but I'm trying to get called by AJ or AQ that he may have done this with.

    2nd hand, I'd bet like 75 and hope to get called by A-high or lower pockets. Him going check-check on the turn and river tells me he never has a jack so we probably have the best hand. Betting big will fold out some of these weaker hands that may make a crying call.
    by 1CycleV
  • CycleV Posts: 1,027Subscriber
    I'm betting both rivers as well
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 315Subscriber
    edited September 11
    LatvianMissile said:
    On the river, I probably bet small on both of these. Probably 100 on the first hand as it looks like he missed his flush draw, but I'm trying to get called by AJ or AQ that he may have done this with.

    2nd hand, I'd bet like 75 and hope to get called by A-high or lower pockets. Him going check-check on the turn and river tells me he never has a jack so we probably have the best hand. Betting big will fold out some of these weaker hands that may make a crying call.
    It was my first quick instinct to check back river on hand #1, but I'm revisiting to see if this can be a value bet. We are targeting specifically AQ/AJ for value betting. This hinges on whether villain puts in this type of action with AQ and AJ (Maybe AJ should check the turn for pot control?) and whether villain will ever check 2 pair+ on the river.

    Combos:
    Hands we beat - AQ/AJ (8x2 = 16 combos)
    Hands that beat us - AT/A7s/A5s (6+2+1 combos = 9 combos), 77 (3 combos), 55 (3 combos) = 15 combos total.

    Combo-wise: It's close but a bet.

    If it's a standard villain it would be a lot easier to make a bet knowing they should go for 3 streets for value with all two pair+. If it's a competent tricky villain, it may still be a bet, but I think it's a lot closer than people may assume.

    For Hand #2, I think we are missing a lot of value if we're only betting $75. I think A-highs are folding regardless and all the pair are candidates to call around $130.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 92Subscriber
    Garland said:
    LatvianMissile said:
    On the river, I probably bet small on both of these. Probably 100 on the first hand as it looks like he missed his flush draw, but I'm trying to get called by AJ or AQ that he may have done this with.

    2nd hand, I'd bet like 75 and hope to get called by A-high or lower pockets. Him going check-check on the turn and river tells me he never has a jack so we probably have the best hand. Betting big will fold out some of these weaker hands that may make a crying call.
    It was my first quick instinct to check back river on hand #1, but I'm revisiting to see if this can be a value bet. We are targeting specifically AQ/AJ for value betting. This hinges on whether villain puts in this type of action with AQ and AJ (Maybe AJ should check the turn for pot control?) and whether villain will ever check 2 pair+ on the river.

    Combos:
    Hands we beat - AQ/AJ (8x2 = 16 combos)
    Hands that beat us - AT/A7s/A5s (6+2+1 combos = 9 combos), 77 (3 combos), 55 (3 combos) = 15 combos total.

    Combo-wise: It's close but a bet.

    If it's a standard villain it would be a lot easier to make a bet knowing they should go for 3 streets for value with all two pair+. If it's a competent tricky villain, it may still be a bet, but I think it's a lot closer than people may assume.

    For Hand #2, I think we are missing a lot of value if we're only betting $75. I think A-highs are folding regardless and all the pair are candidates to call around $130.
    Thanks. Yeah, I thought hand 1 was really close as check might be ok. Hand 2 this V seems really tight so I worry that anything over 75 gets him to fold. Of course, if he does call 130 than betting 75 is a big mistake. I just worry V is overfolding here. We're also leaving value on the table if he would call a bet of $100.
  • Jax1234 Posts: 53Member
    Spoiler:
    I checked back the river in both hands. Hand 1: the villain announced that he had an ace and I was good. Hand 2: the villain showed pocket sixes and I was good.


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