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Go for it of give up? 2/5 Wynn

lotto33 Posts: 25Subscriber
edited September 20 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 Wynn

Eff 1200

Mp is a station who likes to open a lot of pots and is very splashy. Covers table
Button villain is a reg who I have seen play 5/10 but don't have any history on him

Mp opens to $20 3 callers including villain on the button
I have A Q in BB and I 3! $150 mp and button call. Both have me covered

(450) Flop is 9 9 4
I down bet to $150 mp gives a big speech and folds. Villain on the button calls

(750) Turn is 9 I have $900 behind, what should be my play here?

Comments

  • LatvianMissile Posts: 125Subscriber
    What position are you in? I'm guessing SB or BB.

    I think V's range is weighted towards pocket pairs since you have the A. With the SPR just above 1, I think the play is to check as I don't think we're getting enough folds from a pocket pair to justify bluffing and anything we're folding out we probably already beat.

    I'd think I'd have A5s, A4s, KQhh as my bluffs, check my QQ-AA, bet with TT-JJ and check the rest.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,113Subscriber
    In theory we should have about 1:1 bluff to value ratio ott. I'm never checking AA and almost never KK/QQ so that's somewhere in the neighborhood of 16-18 value bets. Frankly I'd bet JJ as well, since V is extremely unlikely to beat JJ given preflop play. So we're approaching 22-24 bets.

    All the AK are bluffs, so we should have some AQ as well. (FWIW pre if we were in the BB, I'm not likely to squeeze A5s against a sticky OR and half the table as callers. SB maybe once in a while, but only if I think BB could try and squeeze. Otherwise I'd prefer a cheap flop. I say this cuz I don't have many suited Ace-wheels I need to bluff with.) Personally I can see where having the Ad hurts us, as that's a card he continues with otf but on a trips board, he'll fold ott.

    But I just don't see V calling a bet that looks like we're setting up a river shove. $400 ott would make a pot of $1550 with us having just $500 back. He shouldn't have many 9's and 44 is possible but not as likely as all the other PP that should not call a 2nd barrel, "knowing" he's facing a river shove...which I wouldn't do btw, but I think we can set it up to make it look like we will. Depending on who you are/what you look like, is he really going to call TT or even JJ, or will he make the exploitative fold?
  • lotto33 Posts: 25Subscriber
    CycleV said:
    In theory we should have about 1:1 bluff to value ratio ott. I'm never checking AA and almost never KK/QQ so that's somewhere in the neighborhood of 16-18 value bets. Frankly I'd bet JJ as well, since V is extremely unlikely to beat JJ given preflop play. So we're approaching 22-24 bets.

    All the AK are bluffs, so we should have some AQ as well. (FWIW pre if we were in the BB, I'm not likely to squeeze A5s against a sticky OR and half the table as callers. SB maybe once in a while, but only if I think BB could try and squeeze. Otherwise I'd prefer a cheap flop. I say this cuz I don't have many suited Ace-wheels I need to bluff with.) Personally I can see where having the Ad hurts us, as that's a card he continues with otf but on a trips board, he'll fold ott.

    But I just don't see V calling a bet that looks like we're setting up a river shove. $400 ott would make a pot of $1550 with us having just $500 back. He shouldn't have many 9's and 44 is possible but not as likely as all the other PP that should not call a 2nd barrel, "knowing" he's facing a river shove...which I wouldn't do btw, but I think we can set it up to make it look like we will. Depending on who you are/what you look like, is he really going to call TT or even JJ, or will he make the exploitative fold?
    a $400 bet on the turn does sound like the best option. If the villain were to call the $400 turn bet why would you not show the river? AA-1010 I would play exactly the same way so why would you give up on the river?
  • CycleV Posts: 1,113Subscriber
    edited September 20
    I give up on blank rivers--I didn't say blank before so let me say non A, K, or Q rivers--cuz if the dude calls the turn knowing he's going to have to call off his stack, well it's likely he's going to call off his stack. So let's not light money on fire and barrel a guy who doesn't want to fold.

    Turn bluffs are often about using leverage. If he calls the turn he's saying he's prepared to stand up to that leverage.

    We can bet the K though cuz that's the likeliest hand we could have that he was ahead of. That gives us a nice bluff ratio as well, value betting all A and Q and bluffing all K.

    (For the record, this isn't a line I came up with on my own. I've absorbed Bart's teachings on this specific move, and I think against most V's, we win EV with the turn bluff and save money when called by not firing the 3rd barrel.)
  • BartBart Posts: 5,959AdministratorLeadPro
    Yeah this seems like a two street plan moving forward from the turn. Button should be weighted very heavily towards pocket pairs. You could bet $350-$400 and shove overcard rivers and possibly give up on low cards. Bart
    by 1lotto33
  • lotto33 Posts: 25Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I shoved and he tanked for about a minute and called. River was a brick and he showed 1010.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,959AdministratorLeadPro
    This reminds me of the hand I think I majorly fucked up from the WSOP this year that I covered in a summer podcast.

    It was from either the double stack or Millionaire Maker and I had AK from the blinds, squeezed over an MP raise and a few calls and villain was on the button and called my 3! I blasted all in on a flop of T66 instead of playing a multiple street game and was drawing basically dead to TT. In that spot I think the SPR was 1.2-1.5 and I regretted not betting small on the flop followed up by some giveups and some all-in on the turn.
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