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2/5 Jacksonville weird hand

BartBart Posts: 5,972AdministratorLeadPro
$2/$5 Jacksonville. $800eff (the max buyin). V1 is new to the table looks like some sort of young hotshot.

I open Q J +1 $20, MP1 calls, V1 LJ to $105, folds back to me I call, fold. POT: 235

FLOP: J 2 3 X/ 135 I call. 505.
TURN: Q X/x. 505
RIVER: T I check, V1 bets 75 Hero?

Comments

  • ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
    edited October 14
    I think I prefer a bet-fold on this river. It's not such a draw heavy board and a Q and your call might be a legitimately scary card he checks behind for pot control. He has AK, AJs, some KJs, TJs, A4s, A5s, and some medium pairs he's turning in to a cheap bluff, and I like to think every Florida rec. player has a 15% spazz factor.

    As played, check-raisre to $275 and fold to a 3bet jam.

    I find in my game a lot of players who read my 1/4 - 1/3 pot sized bet as weakness and raise me, often read it the other oppositely the backwards way in reverse; when they bet small and get raised, they will call with a some of their hands they were originally intending as cheap bluffs they might have otherwise folded. When it happens, you're gonna see them show up with AT, 99, and KJ sometimes here.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Doesn't seem like AK but we don't block any of those combos here. Not sure what we can do but I like just cling here. Don't want to raise fold either.

    Is preflop ok? Seems like maybe that's a bit too loose vs an unknown but I could be wrong there for sure.

    His turn check when board gets wetter leads me to think he has more one pair hands here and draws then sets or AA.

    Im gonna chicken out and just call the 75.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,972AdministratorLeadPro
    I feel like any decent player there should be barreling that turn with AK. Really lends itself to an unbalanced spot, checking back like AQ, KK and AA. Any merit to be concerned w TT here?
  • JS84 Posts: 33Subscriber
    TT possible. I can see some players checking back turn with AK, so I wouldn't discount that.

    Sizing is... strange. 1/6 OTR? Not sure if this is a blocker to see a cheap showdown with AJ? Or if a nut hand trying to get any value.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Weird hands with new players I’m probably just calling so I can see his cards and try to figure out what his deal is. I’m not sure how he gets here with too many worse hands that also call a raise. It’s either a trap to induce a raise/horrible value sizing or he’s just stabbing with some pair giving himself an easy out if you raise.
    by 1crux
  • Niklius Posts: 18Subscriber
    ds2uared said:

    As played, check-raisre to $275 and fold to a 3bet jam.
    This is also my line. I think lots of worse hands will call as played.
  • ThepokerproneurThepokerproneur Posts: 106Subscriber
    I would call, too good of a price as well as getting some valuable information.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 431Subscriber
    I think this hand is too to strong call. We need to raise the river for value. The problem is the stack sizes are a little weird in that if we raise too big, we will be priced in to call if he comes over the top (pretty gross spot)

    I would raise to 160. We will still get value from his weaker holdings and we are not married to the hand if he 3! Shoves.
  • ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
    The AK check-back on this turn is unbalanced but I see it often enough I consider it part of their range, but I don't think it would dissuade me from raising this river. Conversely, I would expect AK to pound this river, so perhaps not too often.

    As for TT, you're also going to see a bigger bet on the river. In both of these instances, villain's realize they have a really good hand that doesn't block you from having one either, so they bet bigger. He can get there with TT, but this bet doesn't seem it.
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 163Subscriber
    I probably just call. We opened and called a 3bet from OOP, so what does our hand look like? AK, QQ, JJ, TT. I suspect villain has a scared AA-KK. Not sure if those are going to sigh-call a river checkraise.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,121Subscriber
    edited October 14
    Bart,
    What's your reasoning for checking river?

    Given your line - your hand looks pretty weak, so I think I would read this as some "young hotshot" trying to get cute and get ultra thin value out of AJ, KJ type of a hand.
    Obviously AK or TT is possible, but strange line... :???:
    Why would AK bet so large on the flop, but then check a very very good turn card (overcard to a J plus picked up gutter? :???: )
    TT is possible I suppose, but riveted sets are so stealthy that I find people usually like to bomb it (make it look like a bluff, etc. etc.)

    Stacks are obv akward, but I think maybe click to 175..I don't think any larger would get a call from a Jx

    P.S.
    Another possibility is that he has AA or KK and taking pot-control line on turn.
    On river he either scared that you have some kind of 2p or doesn't think you have much given passive line, so he's betting ultra small to get very thin value/not to value own himself too badly.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 431Subscriber
    Clock said:
    Bart,
    What's your reasoning for checking river?
    Good Point. I think I would prefer leading the river here.

  • BennyBones Posts: 1Subscriber
    Weird spot. I would lead river here too. As played, I x raise. Awkward stack sizes but I like $300. Click back looks too value heavy but bigger raise could be a bluff (I know you don’t have many but still have some). Have to fold if he jams.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,141Subscriber
    Just cuz he looks like a hotshot doesn't mean he has any idea what he's doing. So even if AK is supposed to pound the turn, he won't always.

    As for TT, I'm not sure why people think the line is strange. Bet flop is standard, check turn seems natural as well.

    As to what his river sizing means, he's an unknown. Who knows if he even knows what it means?

    AP I likely c/r a bit bigger than a minclick, but as to what I expect him to do in response, nothing will surprise me here.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    edited October 14
    I think both AK and TT are in Vs range going to the river.

    More important, I am having trouble finding any worse hands that 1) play that line and 2) call a min c/r on the river. JTs yes, def. I suppose AA/KK *might* play like that and *might* call, but even that is questionable IMO. I don’t think AQ/KQ checks the turn. I don’t think AJ/KJ bets the river (and do they 3B pre?). What worse hand do we put him on remembering that V1 3B an EP open and MP call preflop??

    If I had to guess, I’d say this is most likely JT (which we beat), or AK or TT thinking you don’t have much and betting small to get called (which we lose to). There’s more combos we lose to than beat. But because V is unknown and river bet sizing is so small, I’d still call to see wtf is up. But I don’t see the point in raising.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,972AdministratorLeadPro
    edited October 15
    This hand is covered in the podcast this week. About hand 15 min.

    Spoiler:



    Hero tank jams. Villain snaps Hero is good. Detailed explanation in the podcast


  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    edited October 15
    If you say he is a young hot shot then I have to make some assumptions that he has some skill?

    While you almost certainly beat most of his range how much of that range will call a XR. This is all assuming he is skilled. There is only a PSB XR left on the river giving him ~2:1 to call. But what's he calling with?

    Seems like he has a bluff or some medium hand. I'm working through this as I type.

    AK certainly should be bombing this river since we XCed all the way we could have a set here.

    If he is a good player I'd rather not XRAI here. Only reason for a very good player to make this size bet is to induce a bluff shove. Even if he has a medium hand he isn't calling.

    If he is a wannabe player...... then I think his calling frequency would include more medium hands. QTs is few outs, TT(3), No AK... and just bluffs. Some scared AQ, AJ So if you have medium hands and just bluffs and this guy is willing to call off any of his medium hands or even say AQ, AJ, then shoving here is just slightly +EV. Wannabes aren't complicated enough to make a small river bet like this to induce a bluff. It is almost always a weak hand.

    So if he is really good I XC.
    If he is some wannabe wearing sunglasses I XRAI with < PSB... Pot's too big to fold. I'm hoping he is betting a very scared AQ here and will stack off that range.

    If I knew him to be over aggressive I might bet small to induce a spazz shove from his entire range.


    30s later after reading result.

    Hmm interesting.


  • fishcake Posts: 990Subscriber
    Preflop is a fold imo. I play a lot at this level. So many reasons to fold and very few to call pre. River is a raise as played. At least 200.
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