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$2/$5 Bottom Full House on Check-Raised River 8-Way Preflop Versus Angleshooting Villain On a Saturd

ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
I ran out of space in the Title. The last word is "Saturday".

On to the hand.

8 ways preflop. 0 cards in muck. Hero decides to flat 55 otb. Utg+1 $200 eff. Villain mp2 $1k eff. Villain shot a stupid angle with me about a month back. He's annoying but he brings money to the table. He's loose and aggressive preflop, but weak in postflop play. The angle: he acted like he was going to check with the nuts in position heads up and literally said the words, "I didn't think you were in the hand," then raised when I bet. I had to call down and he had the nuts.

$35. 5 6 A. Checks to Hero who bets $30. Utg+1 calls. Villain calls.
$123. 8 Utg+1 checks. Villain checks. Hero checks behind???
$123. 6. Utg+1 checks. Villain checks. Hero bets $75. Utg+1 calls.

Here's the thing...Villain goes to put in chips (Hero cannot see what amount when he does) and says to me, "I thought only you and I were in the hand." Villain then goes back for more chips and check-raises to $275.

Hero tank calls. Utg+1 folds.

I think the question I'd like answered the most is how do you work on your discipline in those spots? I'm getting 5:2. I only need to be good little less than 30% of the time, maybe less so if Utg+1 calls. But the words, "he doesn't have a river-check raising bluff frequency" in Bart's voice went through my head. Yet, I sigh called.
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Comments

  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 431Subscriber
    I'm curious what you mean by "loose and aggressive preflop, but weak in postflop play" Do you mean weak like a nit or plays bad?

    I agree he's likely not bluffing, but would he overvalue a flush or maybe even a straight here?

    It just seems the only hand he gets here that beats us is 86. AA should raise pre and bet the flop on such a wet board. 56 and A6 should also def bet flop for protection so multi-way. I guess he could limp 88 pre, but that seems unlikely, especially with his loose aggressive preflop tendencies. Obviously all these hands are still possible, but they do seem unlikely.

    I'm not sure what to make of the verbal cue. It seems like he's trying to convey that he is either indifferent to calling or is trying to send you a miscue (ala Zachery Elwood) which both can be perceived as strong.

    There's a very good chance you are beat here, but I could not fold here needing to be good 30%.

    When you say "work on your discipline" have you concluded that this is an easy fold? If so, I do not agree.
  • ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
    edited October 20
    He doesn't bluff often, and when he does, it's smallish bets. He plays his medium hands medium, his small hands small, and his big hands somewhat passively overall.

    Do I think he would check-raise a flush or a straight? Seems very unlikely. Nut flush, sometimes I suppose a villain might over value that hand. But he's never doing that with a straight. When the board pairs, a check-raise with those hands is usually suicide, even to the most average rec.
  • ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 29SubscriberProfessional
    edited October 20
    He has 6 combos of FHs that beat yours, and 45 combos of flushes that will mostly take this line up to the river. X/raise river is surely a strange line with any flush here, but he just has to button click like 7% of his flush combos to get to 3 combos of value that we beat. There's always a spaz factor in live poker, so it's not hard to get to that 7%. I think a fold here is just wrong....it's not a matter of lacking discipline.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    D-man, I think you should have listened to the Bart In Your Head. A lag could easily have A6 or 86 in a limped pot. And if he doesn’t get much out of line post/flop like you say, it seems highly unlikely that he reraises even the nut flush vs a bet and a call when the board pairs on the river. The bet size is super value-y.

    On top of that, while I don’t ilundersrabd what he was saying, just the fact that he made some verbal wisecrack indicates confidence and strength.

    I don’t think you’re good 1 out of 3 times here.
  • ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 29SubscriberProfessional
    edited October 21
    Superfly said:
    D-man, I think you should have listened to the Bart In Your Head. A lag could easily have A6 or 86 in a limped pot. And if he doesn’t get much out of line post/flop like you say, it seems highly unlikely that he reraises even the nut flush vs a bet and a call when the board pairs on the river. The bet size is super value-y.

    On top of that, while I don’t ilundersrabd what he was saying, just the fact that he made some verbal wisecrack indicates confidence and strength.

    I don’t think you’re good 1 out of 3 times here.
    How can we give him that many full houses here after the flop action? He doesnt bet out with top two on a super draw heavy board, and then he doesn't check raise the flop? I guess he could check/call flop with 68, but even that's incredibly loose after UTG+1 has already called. He only has 5 combos of full houses if we give him 50% of his 68 combos (many should fold flop), 25% of his A6 combos (many should lead flop or x/r flop) and 50% of his 56 combos (many should lead flop). Meanwhile almost all 45 combos of flushes get to the river this way. This is hardly an easy fold IMO.
  • ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
    edited October 21
    ChaosInEquilibrium said:
    He has 6 combos of FHs that beat yours, and 45 combos of flushes that will mostly take this line up to the river. X/raise river is surely a strange line with any flush here, but he just has to button click like 7% of his flush combos to get to 3 combos of value that we beat. There's always a spaz factor in live poker, so it's not hard to get to that 7%. I think a fold here is just wrong....it's not a matter of lacking discipline.
    I appreciate the feedback. But you really think he's got 45 flushes here? I can barely imagine a rec. player check-raising the nut flush on the river in this spot, much less any flush. Not only did he not bet the turn, but I didn't either. You think any rec. checks the turned flush and checks it again on the river when no one else shows aggression?

    And if-or-when a player checks a turned flush and then checks behind on the river, do you really think they are suddenly going to show up with a bunch of aggression with a non-nut hand?
  • CycleV Posts: 1,141Subscriber
    D, you know I love you. So just spit it out already. Dude either showed up with a straight flush (played well), or a horribly played AA, A6, 86 or 66. I've come to accept the fact that sometimes V's play a hand so bad that we call (and pay off) based on, "It doesn't make sense." Fact is, the fucker could've won a grand off of us. And that doesn't mean we should always pay off, but if we (virtually) never fold full houses at this level, we'll be OK.

    If your live tell is so strong that you feel you have to fold, then OK, do what you gotta do. I don't fault you. Just remember that your read that he is nutted here is based on an N of 1. OTOH, I mean damn, you're getting almost 3-1 against a weak LAG who angleshoots. He's gonna fuck this spot up often enough that a call has to be 95% correct.
  • ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 29SubscriberProfessional
    edited October 21
    ds2uared said:
    I appreciate the feedback. But you really think he's got 45 flushes here? I can barely imagine a rec. player check-raising the nut flush on the river in this spot, much less any flush. Not only did he not bet the turn, but I didn't either. You think any rec. checks the turned flush and checks it again on the river when no one else shows aggression?

    And if-or-when a player checks a turned flush and then checks behind on the river, do you really think they are suddenly going to show up with a bunch of aggression with a non-nut hand?
    I meant to say that he has 45 combos of flushes that get to the river. This isn't quite accurate because some of his NFDs will bet flop. But all of his other FDs will always check/call flop and make it to the turn.

    You're right that some of his flushes will bet turn so we should multiply his flush combos by a factor of p, where p is the proportion of times that he slowplays a flush on the turn. But by the same token we'd expect him to bet turn with his full houses some of the time. So those FH combos are reduced also by a factor. Maybe it is reasonable to think that he is equally likely to slowplay a FH and a flush, and so it's safe to neglect the "turn slowplay factors".

    Therefore he gets to the turn with 5ish FH combos, and 40-45 Flush combos (depending on the proportion of NFDs he chooses to bet on flop) and we can pretend he gets to the river with 5 FHs and 40-45 flushes. Now the question is how often does he spaz with a flush? I think that 10% is a very conservative estimate.
    It's important to remember that he doesn't put you on a flush after you check back turn, so your hand may look weak to him. So I'd say it's safe to assume he may sometimes overvalues even a K or Q high flush here.

    You said "You think any rec. checks the turned flush and checks it again on the river when no one else shows aggression?"
    My answer: No, not really. But I don't think any rec. would check turn with a FH and check again on the river when no one else shows aggression. So by the same token, it is extremely unlikely he shows up with a FH here. I have no idea which of these two infinitesimally small proportions of combos is larger, but I'm not about to hero fold a full house to a 40BB raise getting nearly 3:1.
  • ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
    @ChaosinEquilibrium @CycleV

    I am swayed. This is a call.

    I just hate hate hate calling check-raises on the river versus some rec. f*ckers. But, you're both right. Too good a price.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    Admittedly A6 is likely to c/r flop. But 68 and 88 still make sense, checking back 2P and set when flush hits turn, then check raising the effective nuts when they fill up on the river.

    But my suggestion to fold here is not based on combinotorics or whatever it is called. The deciding factor for me is that I just can’t imagine any V raising $200 into a $300 pot with just a flush vs a bet and a call when the board pairs on the river. That seems infinitely less likely to me than V hitting the admittedly limited number of hands that give him a better boat.

    Then on top of that the verbal tell that indicates he’s having fun and not worried.

    Square D, I assume you folded. Did you ever find out what he had?
  • ds2uared Posts: 433Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    V showed 4 7 CycleV nailed it, though I really thought it was a fold at the time that I just missed.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    edited October 22
    lol. Guess we were all right. He did have a flush and he did have you beat!
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