Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

2/5 - Raise Turn to Uncap My Range?

dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,040Subscriber
Here's a simple one that maybe isn't so simple in hindsight?

2/5 $500 Cap
$1100 Effective

Villain in BB is a mid-20s white guy, seems regish. Hasn't gone to showdown much, but has taken lines that make me believe he's a solid winning player.

Hero has been pretty tight/quiet, not playing many hands due to distribution of cards, but everything shown down has been nuttish.

Other players typical loose/passive recs.

Preflop: UTG limps. Hero in MP with A Q raises to $25. Button calls. Villain in BB calls. UTG calls.
Pot $100. Flop: T 7 2. Checks around.
Pot $100. Turn: Q. Villain bets $80. UTG folds. Hero calls. Button folds.
Pot $260. River: 4. Villain bets $250. Hero?

I got to the river and feel like I capped myself by just calling the turn. Is raising the turn an overplay? MDF says I need to call this river, right? Even to this sizing? Kinda feel like everyone and their mother knows what I have here...
Tagged:

Comments

  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 431Subscriber
    I'm not a fan of raising the turn. Raising will likely get him to fold all of his weaker Qx and Tx hands that we might get a crying call from otr.

    OTR, I think you have to call. If he's a pro or a very good reg, he should have some bluffs here like KJ,98, and maybe J9 that will want to bet. Sizing up makes sense with these hands to try to get you to fold out a Q,T or something like 99. Without more info/history, call the river.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 146Subscriber
    I don't think you have a better hand here unless QT is in your flop checking range so I think you have to call, but I don't feel good about it. I don't think we can raise turn here either.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 382Subscriber
    edited October 21
    All streets played well. Cannot raise turn and cannot fold river without reads. Hope he has some KJ/J9 for bluffs or AQ for chops. Call and take notes on this holding. River sizing is unfortunate, but win or lose, probably not posting this hand if he bets around $180, right?

    In regards to not capping your range, you should probably have most TT in your flop check range.
    by 1CycleV
  • CycleV Posts: 1,141Subscriber
    I think you're overthinking this. You line looks super standard. his line looks also like it could be just about anything, from set to 2p to a missed sd.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    I agree with everyone else that it probably makes more sense to not break flow and not raise the turn when you are in position. You’ll be able to see what he V does and fine tune your play better on the river.

    Also I don’t think there are enough good bluffs on this board for you to checkraise without being unbalanced and value heavy, making it easier for V to play correctly.

    But same applies to V. I don’t think he has enough bluffs to bet this big without being heavy on value. So this seems like an exploit.

    Your call on the turn makes it likely you have at least a Q - probably with a good kicker since you opened pre. Does a smart, winning player really try to bluff you off TP on a board where a good Q looks to be the best hand? This just doesn’t seem like a bluff to me. And if it is, it’s most likely a low-equity bluff, which doesn’t fit with what we would expect from a solid winning reg.

    Based on all that, I think he’s targeting a Q and going for max value here. Curiosity might get the better of me, leading me to call to see what he is doing. But I don’t think you’re good 1 out of 3 times here.

    When did I become such a nit on the river? Seems like every HH in the forum recently the consensus is to call and I am saying fold. Lol
  • CycleV Posts: 1,141Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    When did I become such a nit on the river? Seems like every HH in the forum recently the consensus is to call and I am saying fold. Lol
    People don't usually post HHs when they call and are good. So for every HH you read and a fold is correct, how many hands didn't get posted cuz H called and mhig?
  • Steveo76 Posts: 53Subscriber
    I am folding in this spot. I agree with the reasoning of @Superfly.

    My question is: Do we need to be worrying about uncapping our ranges?

    What is wrong with our hand being face up in a spot like this and challenging our opponents to bet us off it? I would argue that it actually makes our decision easier.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,040Subscriber
    I won't give what I did on the river yet - in real time I thought the hand was straightforward on all streets, but then second-guessed myself when reviewing my notes the next day.

    One kinda important factor that may be getting glossed over: Villain bets 80% pot into three other people on the turn on the driest of boards, including one who checked naturally to the PFR on the flop (albeit after limp/calling UTG preflop). What range do we give villain for that?
  • CycleV Posts: 1,141Subscriber
    You can give him the sets, you can give him QTs. In game I'm likely to think he wants to blow us off of anything we might have, so he could have anything from a baby PP to SC to KJs, as well as all the value hands.

    Is he trying to get value max from a Q, or is he looking for folds from a hand like 88 or maybe a weak T we checked otf? The turn bet, I wouldn't read much into sizing, as I disagree this is "the driest of boards". Sure no FD, but every card above a five changes the nuts. The river bet, now that's polarizing. He shouldn't need to bet so much to get us to fold any missed BW draws, but if all we can ever have here is 1p, betting so much should generate too many folds (if he has a set or QTs which blocks all our calling hands).

    The only way to know for sure is to look him up. ;) I don't fault a fold, sorta. But if we are folding top-top here, it looks like we are calling with exactly zero % of our range that arrives at this spot. So I call.

    I predict he had pocket 4s.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    edited October 22
    @dpbuck, yes, 80% pot-sized lead on turn is interesting. Does he ever do this as a bluff? Seems risky leading into multiple players when overcard hits turn. Then continuing on the river after being called? Low probability in my experience.

    I could see BB leading large with a Q on the turn, but does he continue with PSB on the river with less than AQ (which you block) after being called? Again,seems unlikely to me.

    On the other hand, if he had 2P+ wouldn’t he bet less on turn to get called? Heads up I’d assume so. But 4-way I can see him betting bigger for value, esp if he doesn’t block the Q. So I don’t think turn bet rules out monsters. And once you call the big turn bet, that gives him the green light to go for max value on the river.

    So I’m still stuck at not seeing any likely hands we beat, and we’d most likely be calling to pick off some ill -advised, low-equity bluff, which doesn’t seem to match Vs profile.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    CycleV said:
    Superfly said:
    When did I become such a nit on the river? Seems like every HH in the forum recently the consensus is to call and I am saying fold. Lol
    People don't usually post HHs when they call and are good. So for every HH you read and a fold is correct, how many hands didn't get posted cuz H called and mhig?
    LMAO. You’re right. But I have the curiosity of one hundred cats and often find myself calling off just to validate my read or see what V is up to. Luckily I’m less inclined to give into the urge at 5-10. But at 2-5 for a couple hundred bucks, I too often find myself climbing the Christmas tree to see what’s on top.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 382Subscriber
    edited October 22
    Obviously, there's selection bias when choosing hands to post for review, and it's often second guessing after losing the hand:
    Either (a) hero made a call as prescribed as he is on the top of his range and lost the hand or (b) hero made a exploitative fold, but got shown a bluff.

    My guess is (a) and my belief is people advising a river fold are doing so because of this inherent bias. The thing is, we are given very little to go by. We are given no hand histories with villain and nothing with a near pot-sized river bet. The only thing we have to go by is villain "has taken lines that make me believe he's a solid winning player". But if he's a solid winning player, then he should have some bluffs in his range. As uncomfortable as it is, sometimes you're gonna have to plug your nose, call and expect to see the bad news. Even if he has the goods up to about 2/3 of the time, it's still a winning play. I like the KISS (Keep it simple stupid) principle, fold out your KQ, but call your AQ.

    Just for a little exercise, let's combo count (I'm going to exclude 44 and KQ from this analysis as it seems unlikely the hand plays this way. Also going to exclude AA and KK as a solid winning player would almost certainly 3-bet pre especially with a button caller, but keep QQ to balance out out the rare times I'm wrong about AA/KK):

    Hands that beat us:
    QQ (1 combo), TT (3 combos), 77 (3 combos), 22 (3 combos), QTo or QTs (6 combos) = 16 combos

    Hands we beat:
    KJo or KJs (16 combos total), J9s (4 combos)

    Hands we tie:
    AQ (6 combos)

    We can obviously play around with suited and unsuited variations of QT/KJ/J9, but even if he only shows up with KJs or J9s, that's 8 bluffs vs. 16 value combos which gets us to the 2:1 odds we are looking for.

    by 1CycleV
  • JredA Posts: 71Subscriber
    edited October 22
    I don't think there is any need to stray away from the straight forward play due to the fact we are multi-way.

    As played, Im not so sure this is a MDF call 100% of the time.

    OTR Villain is risking $250 to win $510. So our MDF is 51%.

    Personally, Im facing this river bet a large percentage of the time holding AQs, AQo, KQs and QJs. Thats 18 combos. I only need to defend w/ 9-10 combos. Im for sure folding KQs and QJs to most villains.

    That leaves 12 combos of AQ in our range. So we don't technically have to call w/ all our AQ combo's.

    However, it does not take many bluff combo's to get us to our needed 33% equity to make a call. If we give villain all the AQ's, QT's, set's (TT,77,22) for value and only 6 bluff combos (all the KJ suited's and a few J9 suited's) we are getting the right price to call.

    Im also kind of a station and if a relatively unknown does this w/ KQ combos or even AK we are getting the right price to call. If I think villain is solid and capable of going aggressive into multiple players, then it's a call. If he is more on the straight forward side I could get behind a fold. I don't see too many players taking this line as a bluff in my $2/$5 games though.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,040Subscriber
    If you're curious on results...

    Spoiler:
    Garland said:
    Obviously, there's selection bias when choosing hands to post for review, and it's often second guessing after losing the hand:
    Either (a) hero made a call as prescribed as he is on the top of his range and lost the hand or (b) hero made a exploitative fold, but got shown a bluff.

    My guess is (a) and my belief is people advising a river fold are doing so because of this inherent bias.
    (c) None of the above. Hero folds, and villain doesn't show. In reviewing the hand the next day, though, hero realizes he is close to the top of his range, and needs to call against a competent villain.


    Thanks for the discussion, guys. I appreciate the feedback.
    by 1CycleV
Sign In or Register to comment.