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Hero or Fold ?

Effective stacks 900. Villan, who covers is a competent foreign player.


J♦J♥ SB. UTG raise 20, Hero call. Flop 40 K♣5♥6♣. Hero check, UTG bet 35, Hero call. Turn 110 5♦, Hero check, UTG bet 70, Hero call. River 250 2 ♠, Hero check, UTG bet 160,

Hero ?

What are thoughts on flatting pre in this configuration?
Tagged:
by 1Niklius

Comments

  • Niklius Posts: 18Subscriber
    edited November 5
    I think 3!ing JJ at partial frequency is good. I prefer the 3! to avoid being squeezed, plus you are OOP.

    As played I think you should be folding the River often. These aren't good barreling/bluffing cards to runout, which means he should be weighted more towards value and has a lot of better value hands in his range vs. You.

    Edit: Thought you were the BB at first because it's early.
  • Steveo76 Posts: 53Subscriber
    Tough spot @Thepokerproneur !!

    Starting pre-flop, have gotten to see any of Villain's opening UTG hands at showdown to get an idea of his range? Also how many handed is the table?

    Assuming a standard UTG opening range at an 8 handed table then we are more likely ahead than behind. So I like a raise for value. Also you are not closing the action so you don't want to let the BB in and be playing OOP against two players. So there's two reasons to raise instead of call.

    AP you have a clear check/call on the flop. Then you make a sticky call on the turn which is fine IMO. On the river you are facing a large bet. You don't block clubs. There are quite a few combos of FDs that have missed (AQc down to say 10c9c) and do these outweigh the most likely value hand combos of AA, KK and AK? I am assuming Villain didn't open pocket 5s, 6s, 2s or 6 5 suited. It is £160 to call to win £410 so you need to be right 39% of the time. Do the bluff combos total 61% of his range? I wouldn't be capable of crunching these numbers in the moment. I would just conclude that the bet is more bluff heavy and then revert to my live reads to tip the scale if I was on the fence with the percentages. You say Villain is 'competent'. Have you seen him run big bluffs before? Setting aside any reads or history with Villain I think I am making a painful call here.

    I am looking forward to seeing the more experienced subs wade into this one to see how my analysis stacks up!
  • Niklius Posts: 18Subscriber
    edited November 5
    Steveo76 said:
    Tough spot @Thepokerproneur !!

    There are quite a few combos of FDs that have missed (AQc down to say 10c9c) and do these outweigh the most likely value hand combos of AA, KK and AK? I am assuming Villain didn't open pocket 5s, 6s, 2s or 6 5 suited. It is £160 to call to win £410 so you need to be right 39% of the time. Do the bluff combos total 61% of his range? I wouldn't be capable of crunching these numbers in the moment. I would just conclude that the bet is more bluff heavy...

    I don't think it is more bluff heavy. The K being the Kc reduces those missed FD combos more.
    Value (KK+, AK): 21 Combos
    Bluffs (87cc-QJcc, AQcc, AJ, AT, QT): 9 combos
    30% Bluff Combos

    160 to 410 is about 2.5 to 1. We need to be good 28.5% of the time.

    Mathematically it seems very thin +EV. However, I think the V should not be bluffing at a high frequency on the river given the low/dry runout. Nothing changes and you've called twice, so I'm not sure what he thinks you would be folding on a triple barrel bluff.

    For that reason I stick with a fold.
  • Steveo76 Posts: 53Subscriber
    Oh dear I fudged my numbers badly here!

    Combo calculating / pot odds is not my forté lol. Back to school for me!

    Nice crunching @Niklius.
    by 1Niklius
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    In addition to the comments above, turn and river bets are each about 64% pot. That sizing seems like V wants a call. I would think he would bet more on the river if bluffing.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 382Subscriber
    Relevant questions: What is BB's stack, pre-flop selection and style of play?

    If I'm not 3-betting pre (which I think is perfectly fine), I think taking one off on the flop is fine, but I think you can just fold the turn as you can have many K yourself to continue. Competent Villain range is value heavy with AA/AK/KK (6+12+3 = 21 combos) and his bluffs will consist of A Q, A J, A T (3 combos + possibly 2 or 3 suited connectors like Q J). He's probably going to check back turn with a lot of his pocket pair holdings.
    by 1CycleV
  • CycleV Posts: 1,141Subscriber
    edited November 5
    At a certain point, we just gotta believe people. Even competent players don't always triple barrel--shouldn't always triple barrel--when it looks like we're getting sticky w a KQ type hand.
  • pray4blank Posts: 139Subscriber
    So I think the simple answer is this a decision you need to mostly make on the turn.

    1. If you believe opponent barrels too frequently on the river, you're calling turn to catch a bluff on good rivers.

    2. If you believe the opponent bluffs far less often than optimal on this river, then you are calling the turn with the intent of folding a river bet.

    3. If you believe the opponent bluffs close to the right frequency on the river, you must fold the turn, as a close to GTO frequency on the river when added to the money lost on turn call, will be a negative EV play.

    ----

    I realize in poker we don't know which of these categories a player falls into, but we have to choose one to make a decision. If you believe he is competent, it seems you believe he will bluff the river about the right amount of time, which means we probably need to just release in the turn.
  • FriendlyFish Posts: 116Member
    edited November 5
    I like the flat pre.

    Villians value hands that can take this line:

    So assuming V is competent and this is a full ring 9 player game. His UTG range that bets 3 streets for value looks something like 6 combos of AA, 12 combos of AK, 3 combo of KQs, maybe the KsJs combo and some KQo but i wont count those yet. I can see 3 combo of KK betting too due to draw heavy nature of board and the good chance u can have 55 66 flatting from sb. The 18 combo of AK and AA we can be pretty sure about and if u add the KQs and KK and some KQo we can arrive at approximately 24. (Note: His flop potential bluff Ac5c turned into a value hand on the turn)

    Villians bluffs: AcQc, AcJc, Ac10c, QcJc, Qc10c, 9c10c. Maybe 9c8c and Ac9c. But if we add those we have to add Ac5c which got there for value hands and more KQ combos for value hand aswell. So all in all imma say 6 combos of bluffs on average to the 24 combo of value hands which means he’ll be bluffing around 20% of the time.

    Base on our pot odds we need to be good 28% of the time making it a fold imo.

    If you also flat QQ in this configuration (I do) and want to call with an under pair to the K in your calling range. I would use those to call since it blocks more value hands, specifically KQ that would be more likely to raise pre and bet bet bet than KJ.
  • fishcake Posts: 990Subscriber
    I think the turn is just a fold. Only beating clubs here and sometimes hes gonna check on this turn.
  • BeauMoore Posts: 15Subscriber
    edited November 6
    Ki's charts say sb vs utg open, JJ is a partial 3b, so I don't mind the flat I guess. On the flop, it's a almost pot sized bet. I think flop can go either way depending on villain, although I'm looking to fold a lot of turns here vs utg open range.

    The 5 is basically a blank, however, when the guy bets again, with more large sizing, I think we have better hands to call with. AXcc, KQs, KJs, 89cc, T9cc, JTcc, QJcc. JJ may have more equity vs a balanced range than a naked flush draw here, but I think its close and our river decision will be much easier and potentially profitable with the flush draws.

    I'm folding river here. The sizing seems too value heavy. I mean, I think Im probably overfolding this spot but I wouldn't have made the turn call. I guess Im just calling with our KQs, KJs combos.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    Superfly said:
    In addition to the comments above, turn and river bets are each about 64% pot. That sizing seems like V wants a call. I would think he would bet more on the river if bluffing.
    This is why I lean on folding. Not only is he betting less but he isn't betting much more than the turn. Generally at these stakes if a player calls slightly over $100 OTT they will also call a midrange over $100 bet OTR which this is. He doesn't know who you are so he assumes you are one of the sheep.

    This is on top of the combo work everyone did for me above.

    He could possibly bluff here. He he has AQ your hand range is slightly weighed more to pairs. If he has TT it is slightly weighted more to Kings.

  • ThepokerproneurThepokerproneur Posts: 106Subscriber
    Thank you all for the feed back. The villain was competent Euro he had us covered. I ended up calling and he mucked.
  • Superfly Posts: 429Subscriber
    edited November 9
    So V was trying to bluff you off a K with roughly half pot-sized bets? When you call the flop, having a K has to be a big part of your range. Doesn’t seem very competent to me. Is smaller bet sizing common in Euro games? Is there a good rationale for doing this that I am missing? I suppose you’re “getting a better price on your bluffs,” but you’re giving up tons of fold equity.
  • ThepokerproneurThepokerproneur Posts: 106Subscriber
    lol I am not sure what he was thinking.
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