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Running it only once: inducing future folds


There seems to be a dynamic at the low limit Vegas PLO games where players are making calls/raises all in when they have smaller draws (8-9 outs) that are either barely or clearly not warranted by the pot odds, with the anticipation that most players run it twice, therefore giving them the mistaken belief they have more outs — better odds— than they actually have.

My understanding is: 1) In situations where they have pot odds to call (but are an underdog to my hand) I want a fold, but 2) where they do not have odds to call, I want a call. For example, 1) OTT if there is $1000 in the pot and I have 70% equity, with only $100 effective behind, I make $300 with a fold, but only an additional $70 if the villain calls (an extreme and unlikely result to be sure — just to demonstrate the point). 2) On the other hand if there is $1000 behind I make $300 with a fold but $700 with a call all in OTT.

It seems I can influence the call/fold decision by making it clear I run only once. But I’m trying to figure out if this is, in general, beneficial to equity (situation 2) more frequently situation (assuming I’m indifferent to variance) or if more often they will be in situation 1 where I want a fold.

In general I like it when people fold.

Comments

  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 307Subscriber
    I've come across this dynamic by playing across the state of MI. The Detroit casinos do not allow running it twice in PLO. Meanwhile on the west side of the state and in Chicago, you can run it twice, or even three times in some spots.

    Once you become known as someone who only runs it once in the player pool, other players will gamble less against you, I've seen it happen. This can induce more folds.

    I run it twice b/c I want to promote positive feelings in the game. But my win rate is better in games where I only run it once.

    If you are truly indifferent to variance (assuming your bankroll can withstand some), a good PLO player is always, always better off running it once. B/c you're going to be the one most often with the equity advantage. And you'd be surprised how often people continue to put their money in bad vs you, even when it's known that you only go once. Also, it ends the silly back and forth of "you wanna go twice? I don't care. I will if you want to. I don't want to pick. Ok, we are going twice then? Whatever you want buddy".

  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 140Subscriber
    edited November 16
    Thank you. Though I’m still taking credit for the strategy as my own original thought. We call it “jonesing for the win.”
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 140Subscriber
    edited November 16
    Run it once result tonight at Aria 1/2. I'm in early position w AAQT suited A diamonds. I limp. Cutoff raises pot, 3 callers, I repot and get 4 callers for $125 each (not what I hoped for). Flop is Ac6c2h. I pot. All fold except one tight reg who calls all in for $450 (he had to know what I had). He immediately signals twice like its automatic. I say "I only run it once." Face falls and shakes his head. Turn 4s, River Jd. Never saw his hand.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 307Subscriber
    Nice scoop Jonesey. Glad to hear the story didn’t end with “the club binks the turn and now I’m rethinking all of my life choices”
  • CycleV Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    We don't have RIT here. When I played in Vegas in Feb I hated it, because split pots don't lead to a lot of extra money on the table. Staring at all the short stacks for a couple of hours was annoying, so I didn't RIT just cuz I wanted more money on the table.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 140Subscriber
    Cycle V there is a popular Pilo instructor on YouTube who argues that when you’re shortstaffed you should never run it twice because you’re trying to build a big stack and punish small stack. But once you have a big stack then you should run it twice to reduce variance. Never bought into doing the stack size switch — seems unethical to switch midsession. your strategy is certainly better
  • CycleV Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    I can see if someone usually buys in for 500 and suddenly it's 2K effective, hell yeah RIT. But frankly, if I have so much money in front of me that I am worried about variance, then unless it's an epic game I should have stood up already. In both PLO and NLHE I'd stand up if I had 4 BI in front of me and so did some dangerous V's.
    by 1Jonesey
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