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Should I continue

Paulmul80 Posts: 4Subscriber
edited December 2019 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2-5 $900 effective. Hero has 10x10x in mp1 position. 2 limpers. Hero Raises to $40. Button calls. Flop is 5d9s9d. Hero bets $40. Villan calls. Turn is 4c. Hero checks. Villan bets $135. Strong probability that he has 9x. Should I continue and try to spike my 10, knowing I will stack him if I hit

Comments

  • fishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
    Yes call. I dislike checking though.
  • Superfly Posts: 485Subscriber
    Villain cold called your over-sized raise pre with two limpers behind. He could also have JJ, although that would normally be a 3bet. Does 9x cold call $40? I suppose it’s V dependent.

    If the only reason you’re calling is to spike a T, then you are not getting the right odds. Two outs with one card to come is less than 10% equity. To continue, you need to feel there is some significant percentage of the time where he is bluffing or overplaying something you beat, like nut FD, and will shut down on the river.
  • Daddyslap Posts: 70Subscriber
    I like betting this flop; a down-bet like $35-40 is great, but you need to have a plan before doing this. Specifically, If raised, depending on the opponent, we are likely beat and can fold the flop. If called, their ranges are heavily weighted to draws.

    As played so far (which I like), the turn should be an over bet on a blank, to the tune of $175ish. We managed to get great value on the flop, and now we are changing the draws that came along and keeping in hands like 66, 77, and 88 as well as flush draws with 1 or 2 over cards.

    How did it end?
  • fozbo Posts: 143Subscriber
    I dont think he has a ton of 9x here lol, JJ-77 maybe, call turn evaluate river
  • crux Posts: 88Subscriber
    I like the play to the turn here, but don't see why you'd check that turn card. What 9 does the V really have here? 89ss or 9Tss, maybe A9ss? I think it's just as likely they could could have A5ss, or even something like KQdd.
    If you're scared of anything, I think it would be JJ and QQ as your pre-flop raise was a touch large assuming a normal open of $15-25 in a 2/5 game, and those hands may have just flatted with position pre, and called the flop, now betting the turn as your check signals weakness.
    I think V has a pretty capped range here and a turn bet of like $165-200 will blow them off any flush draw they continued the flop with, as well as under-pairs like 77 and 88.

    As played, I think you call turn and evaluate river.
    If river is non-diamond, I think you check-call most other cards.
    by 1hustlin
  • hustlin Posts: 331Subscriber
    What those guys said.
  • NitBetNitBet Posts: 37Member
    edited January 2
    call-fold or call-blocking-bet.
    fold if you have a read on the player.
    Ranges are still extremely wide here but there is a ton of 9-x hands out there which beat you and your tenners don't beat really much. Ugly spot, too passively played. Like to be on the aggressive side because people much faster telegraph you when you are beat.

    Playing for set-value OTT is well.... nuts :-)
  • Paulmul80 Posts: 4Subscriber
    Sorry for the late response, hero did catch a 10 on the river and stacked villan. Villan turned over 9-10 for a smaller boat
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 239Subscriber
    I think I kick the tires with a small turn bet. Is really going to flat 2 streets with a 9? If he calls again check call blanks on river?
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