I had a couple of interesting spots @ 5/10 at the Horseshoe in Hammond.
LJ limps ($1K effective) V1. Loose young asian guy V2 opens to $70 on the BTN ($1.2K effective) he's been opening wide and has blasted off with air on a number of flops. Took a recent downswing from his $5K stack 90 min earlier. Hero SB K♣ Q♣ given his profile, are we 3B / flat / fold? Argument can be made to fold since both villains are a little shorter. Hero elects to 3B to $280 (thoughts on sizing?). V2 only caller.
Flop: Q♥ 6♥ 5♥
Check or bet? What is our sizing? We can get value from 77-JJ with a heart and if he checks back and a heart comes on the turn, we are in a dicey situation where he can turn nearly ATC into a bluff.
Hero opens UTG to $30 with K♦ J♦ Pro 3B to $100 ($2.7K effective) who has been fairly active thus far in the session. He's familiar with PIO and seems balanced from our limited hours together. Folds to Hero and he calls. An argument can certainly be made to 4B with some frequency though.
Flop: K♥ 9♣ 3♠
Hero checks and V1 bets $70. Given the V1 still has the nut advantage with top set can we be merging our range here and raising to get some value from TT-QQ if we would do the same with QJs / JTs / QTs? As played, Hero calls.
Hero checks and V1 now fires $340 > $355. This is a player that can be repping range and can fire all heart combos, some 9x as he blocks are most likely set, as well as some straight draws. We block part of his value range KK and AK. We are still losing to AA / AK / KK / 99. AQ / AJ and maybe some weak suited Aces if he elects to bomb those. As played, Hero calls.
Hero checks and V1 jams for ~$2.2K. From a MDF perspective we have to call 40% of the top of our range and as played we are near the top. The only better hands we have are 99 that haven't raised the flop or turn. There shouldn't be a huge distinction between KQs and KJs and as a matter of fact with KQs we block hands that he may turn into bluffs such as AQs or QJs.
Breaking down his range:
-Value: 3 combos (AA) 1 (KK) 3 (AK) 3 (99) = 10 combos
-Bluffs: 2 combos (T9s) spades / diamonds if we assume he gives up with heart combos, 2 combos (98s) for the same reasons mentioned earlier. This also is a great candidate for this opponent as he blocks our most likely full house. 3 (QJs) 3 (JTs). 1 (45s) hearts. = 11 combos.
In reality, we only need him to have ~7 combos of bluffs to call given the pot odds. Any thoughts appreciated here.