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AK on interesting flop. Interpretation of pot sized bet on flop (2 part question)

GarlandGarland Posts: 515Subscriber
Location: Lucky Chances in Colma, CA
Stakes: $3/$5, $1000 max

I cover the two villains.

Fairly loose average aggression game. Villain is passive pre-flop as evidence by observing him limp calling a raise with KQ in MP, check calling an Kxx monotone flop, but then betting calling a raise on the turn against PFR who flopped a flush, but a river made KQ the winner.

Pre-flop ($8 - 9 players) - UTG limps, button limps I'm in BB with A K and raise to $30, both limpers call.

Flop ($87 after drop - 9 players): A Q J. I opt to check, UTG checks, button bets $100.

What is your interpretation of his action and response if he has:
(a) $220 remaining in his stack?
(b) $1000 remaining in his stack?
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Comments

  • HurtLocker Posts: 25Subscriber
    What was the rationale for checking the flop vs. leading out for value? I’m guessing in either scenario you’re not up against KTs/KTo as villains at $5 blind stakes like to trap and prob would check back?

    (a) = villain’s range is strong enough to get it all in so TPTK might be behind. Villain is saying they will go with the hand. Check-raise to isolate and take this HU. I think it’s too weak to fold AK here and you do have some better two pair/broadway outs.

    (b) = less strong than above, so villain wants protection against a bad beat? Call and assess the turn. If it goes check check, bomb the river?
  • fozbo Posts: 143Subscriber
    Calling in both scenarios, some weak Ax hands maybe, some straight airballs, some times QJ, gotta call once after checking
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    I also think this should be cbet the vast majority of the time. I think you can check sometimes ip, but checking oop makes things a little awkward and will likely cost you money in the form of a missed bet.

    AP - with 220 stack, probably just jamming. There's some merit in calling as well because the board is so good for our range, the c/r looks super strong.

    With the 1000, call. Prob have to check the turn to him as well.

  • Superfly Posts: 590Subscriber
    edited January 14
    I’m going to take a different perspective here. First, I like the check on the flop. This board is very wet and AQ, AJ, QJ and maybe even KT are definitely in Vs range. This idea that you need to push TPTK on wet multi-way boards seems like a big leak to me.

    I’m not too worried about SDs. The only real scare cards here are a Q or J, and you can easily fold to continued aggression if one of those hit. T is great for you and even a K Is mostly good, because it’s highly unlikely that V bets QT or JT on the flop. AT... maybe? Pretty much rest of deck is blanks.

    Also I don’t see anyone calling 3 streets with a worse hand so don’t think you lose value by checking a street. Asking yourself “is this a 3 streets of value hand? 2? 1?” is something Rob Farha hammers home in his videos. Ax, for example, is def not calling three streets in this hand.

    Facing the bet on the flop I think you should be LESS likely to call against a short stack. Assuming it goes AI on the turn, it’s going to cost you 320 to win 510, so you have to be right about two-thirds of the time to make this profitable. With deeper stacks you get better odds to spike a T or K.

    Nothing in your example hand indicates that V is overly aggressive or bluffy post flop. And it certainly doesn’t make sense to bluff on a wet multi-way board with a short stack. So his 100 bet seems to me more like value/protection with the intent to get it AI on the turn. So I guess I would fold vs short stack and peel vs deeper stack.

    That’s how I see it anyway...
    by 1crux
  • Superfly Posts: 590Subscriber
    @Garland, any final thoughts or spoilers on this hand? It was a good learning exercise from a number of angles.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 515Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I don't hate my flop check as it is one strong hand to check. Conversely I would not check AA. villain had 320. I figure he could have a hand like AT enough to commit him.
    I moved in. He had QJo, turned a Q, and I did not improve. I wonder if I can make the read to fold on the flop on that sized bet or call and evaluate turn.
  • fozbo Posts: 143Subscriber
    I mean even vs QJo there you basically have the equity to call a shove from V if cards were face up, not quite but close, and that's the top of his range there lol, if you give him any Ax its a snap call all day IF he shoved, thats giving him a 0% bluffing frequency.
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