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Thin river value bet? If so, how much?

GarlandGarland Posts: 514Subscriber
edited January 13 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Location: Lucky Chances in Colma, CA
Stakes: $3/$5, $1000 max

Effective stack $1000.

Fairly loose average aggression game. Limper is loose passive MAWG.

Pre-flop ($8 - 9 players) - UTG limps, I am on button with A Q and raise to $25 and only UTG calls.

Flop ($52 after drop - 2 players): Q 9 4. UTG checks, I bet $30 and he calls.

Turn ($112 - 2 players) - 3 UTG checks, I bet $95, he pauses and calls again (most likely holding at this point is Qx)

River ($302 - 2 players) - K UTG checks, I bet ??? If so, how much?

Comments

  • fozbo Posts: 143Subscriber
    Im all for thin value, not this river, your targetting QJ and QT, which he may have a ton of offsuit combos, but he still has to CALL you more than half the time for it to be good. Weak villans limp KQo alot too, JT gets there, some 9x spade hands get there, if you insist on betting, im going tiny, 115-125
  • neutron212neutron212 Posts: 23Subscriber
    If the guy is open limping from utg and you're placing him on Qx then QK could most likely be an open limp. Also I'd like to think if the utg had a flush draw he'd lead the turn unless he's that passive. So if you fire the river for value 100$ and if the V come over the top for 300 more puke call and hope for the best.
    by 1crux
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    This is super thin, but you might be able to get value from a loose passive type. Probably sizing down 125ish. Just be prepared to fold if he raises.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 289Subscriber
    I'd bet 150. A bunch of V's will convince themselves to call with a QJ, QT.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 514Subscriber
    edited January 16
    Spoiler:
    I checked back and regretted the decision. I think I could size down to $75 or so and expect a call. Villian had QJo
    by 1crux
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