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To bet for thin river value or not

Sugarman Posts: 34Subscriber
edited January 17 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5, $800 eff. AdKc on BU, HJ (quite loose) opens $20, I 3b $65, only HJ c.
($124). F: KsJh9h. V x, we bet $45 (ik we can definitely go larger here if we wanted to but live reads), V c.
($214). T: 7c. V x, me $125, V c.
($464). R: 2h. V x, I bet $150, V x jams $400 total, H folds.

** A couple important details. V was certainly loose enough to be calling preflop with most os broadways and many suited hands too. Also, OTR I asked V if he had a flush and he said he would “show me regardless”.

Larger pre? Too small OTF? Okay turn sizing? Too thin OTR?

Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 461Subscriber
    edited January 17
    Pre-flop fine. Not downbetting flop...betting $75ish to get called by KQ, KT, QQ, pair and gutshot and FD all the same...maybe even TT still. Turn as played fine. River value is also fine. Would need read on villain to call XR otherwise default is to fold as these bluffs are rare. Most likely holding is a Ax hand.
  • Superfly Posts: 550Subscriber
    edited January 17
    Agree with cbetting larger on flop faced with this wet board that gives V so many draws.

    I wonder about the turn. If you had bet larger on the flop and got called, seems like a pot-control check on turn might be best. There’s a risk to betting one-pair hands to protect against draws on dangerous boards where you could already be beat. Could you call if check raised? If not it might be better to try to get to showdown cheaply. Pushing TPTK in this spot seems to me like it could be an overplay. But I’d like to hear from others on this.

    Once you’re called on flop and turn I am definitely checking back river. I can’t see someone calling you across 3 streets with worse, esp when the flush comes in.

    As played, it’s 250 more to win 1,000. I can’t see him doing this with sets, straights, etc. so V is polarized to the flush or bluff. For 250 I would call I guess but it’s a V-dependent unhappy crapshoot at best. again prefer not being put in this tough spot by checking back.
  • Superfly Posts: 550Subscriber
    @KiLee, this is a tricky turn spot. If you have time, would greatly appreciate your thoughts. @dpbuck?
  • Beatsme Posts: 599Subscriber
    I think I go larger otf. I mean o this board he has so many that will call a larger bet here. I go at least 1/2 pot... prob larger like 85-90. Our goal is targeting fds and pair plus gutters

    Then ott I continue with 150.

    On this river I prob check back. Front door draw came in so even if he has KQ its gonna be hard to get another call here otr.... imo
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 260Subscriber
    edited January 17
    I think the turn sizing is fine, V will raise if you're beat. The only reason to check it back is if you're playing against a good player that recognizes they can put you in a tough spot by c/r.

    I think the river is actually a check back. Ran it thru an equity calculator and was surprised, but there's 16 hands you beat: KQ and KT and you may only get called by 8 of them. V has 12 combos of 2P alone before we get into flush draws.

    Started with a V loose 3! calling range of Any 2 broadways, Any PP, 54s+, J9s+ and any suited Ace.
  • Sugarman Posts: 34Subscriber
    LatvianMissile said:


    I think the river is actually a check back. Ran it thru an equity calculator and was surprised, but there's 16 hands you beat: KQ and KT and you may only get called by 8 of them. V has 12 combos of 2P alone before we get into flush draws.
    I’m starting to regret posting this hand because there’s so many little details and intangibles here that you only see in live settings, but basically I expect him to call rivers with AJ at a relatively high frequency too.
  • crux Posts: 106Subscriber
    Preflop sizing is fine. You have position, so no need to go any bigger.
    I agree with others that flop bet should be bigger. I probably land in the $75-85 range.
    The turn I'm a little torn on. I probably check here and look to call a reasonable river lead from V or make a small bet on a non-heart board. There are so many draws out there, and given V description even this 7 could have completed one of them, so I'm trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.
    On river, I think this should be a check back, or if you are going to bet it should be larger to like $300 if you think you're good here. I think the $150 is ripe to induce a bluff.
    As played, you were looking at calling $250 to win about $1100, so you needed to be right about 20% of the time. This is where I guess it's totally V dependent... does he have the ability to bluff with A X (Q,J?), or busted straight draw? If so, I think you have to call. Or, is he only jamming with his value hands.. flush, slow-played QT, two pair, set.
    I'd feel pretty committed to making the crying call here, but I definitely would not feel great about it.
  • Sugarman Posts: 34Subscriber
    edited January 18
    crux said:

    On river, I think this should be a check back, or if you are going to bet it should be larger to like $300 if you think you're good here. I think the $150 is ripe to induce a bluff.
    As played, you were looking at calling $250 to win about $1100, so you needed to be right about 20% of the time.
    I get where you’re coming from here but I’m not even sure this V was tracking pot size, I think he was just looking at absolute $ value. You really think he’s going to find a bluff here at least 1/5 times for us to call as required? Seems ambitious
  • Beatsme Posts: 599Subscriber
    Imo the villain is not bluffing this board with a river check raise after we 3 bet pre and then go bet bet bet... our line looks incredibly strong. We could have all the sets... lots of strong flushes. And even possibly QTs for a flopped straight.
  • crux Posts: 106Subscriber
    Sugarman said:

    I get where you’re coming from here but I’m not even sure this V was tracking pot size, I think he was just looking at absolute $ value. You really think he’s going to find a bluff here at least 1/5 times for us to call as required? Seems ambitious
    I guess it would be V dependent. It sounds a bit like the kind of player that will just fire off at the end because they think it's the only way they are going to win the pot, and you didn't go all-in or make a big bet, which they could take as weakness.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 266Pro
    @superfly - I think the flop sizing can be a little bigger. Turn bet is fine. River seems like a clear check back unless he is a HUGE whale. As played, bet-fold, but check back is much better
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