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River spot: Nut flush on 4 flush paired board

ChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 38Subscriber
edited January 17 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
This hand was played on the Live Stream 1/3 game at Texas Card House in Austin. I'm the player in seat 7.

I think this hand relates to a concept that Bart discussed recently on his podcast: the idea that 4 flush boards are underbluffed because it is so easy for any player to have the nuts and it is often difficult to find natural bluff candidates on these boards.

Villain in this hand is a regular at 1/3 and 5/5. He's loose passive, playing 39/9 (VPIP/PFR) on the evening. He's an aware player in that he thinks about what other players are representing.

Hero has a TAG image, playing 20/13 on the night.

Villain starts with $750, Hero has $1k.

Villain limps UTG, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises to $26 with A Q, BB calls, Villain calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 9 3 7 ($105)

Villain now leads for $50, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, BB folds

Turn: 3 ($205)

Villain bets $125, Hero calls.
(I realize there is an argument for jamming turn, but I'm trying to keep my opponent in the hand, and I think jamming at this SPR would get him to fold out his K x combos).

River: J ($455)

Villain bets $225 (leaving $325 behind).

If I jam now, Villain will have to call $325 into a pot of $1230, getting roughly 4:1.

The question is whether a 1/3 reg is going to call off with K x often enough for this to be a profitable jam (and realistically how many combos of K x would take a strange line like this on the flop/turn?).

Here's a link to the hand (spoiler warning) @ timestamp 1:36:25. You have to click through to the YouTube html because it seems the forum doesn't allow inline video in posts.



Comments

  • crux Posts: 119Subscriber
    I haven't watched the hand, so I don't know the outcome.

    One question, what's your normal open in this game? I feel like $26 is a pretty big raise over two limpers pre-flop.
    On the flop, I think the flat is fine.
    The turn, I'm not on board with a jam but I could see a raise to like $275 with a plan to jam river. What do you think V is holding that continues betting the turn after you flat that flop? Are you only putting him on K X?

    I feel like a lot of players at 1/3 and 2/5 are going to check that river if they were holding the K after you called down all the way. The fact that you didn't raise flop or turn obviously disguises your hand to a point, but also looks a lot like a naked A X that then gets there.
    I'd be a little concerned about V having better than a flush here since he continues firing. Does he limp 77 and 99? What about the heart gappers to the straight flush?

    If you jam river, V is getting a pretty good price to call with a K high flush but I don't know that a good reg is calling with that hand. You may only be getting called by better. I think I just call here.
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