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When sets get real!

Hero is MAWG. Aggro pre. Post, because it is typically multiway, very picky with spots. $500

Villian is a 30's White Male Tatted. I have played PLO twice with him and he blew off a few grand each time just ramming it in with medium strength hands. First time I have played NLHE with him. $300

OTTH 1/3 NL

Hero open $12 with JsJc.
V in Co calls. Button calls.

Flop ($40) Jd 3s 5s
Hero bets $15. Both call.

Turn ($85) 8s
Hero bets $30. V raises to $70. Button folds. Hero calls.

River ($225) 6s
Hero checks. Villain bets $60. Hero?

Some physical things going on during this bet...
1. Hands were shaking
2. No verbalizing the bet.
3. No eye contact with me or the dealer.
4. All $5 chips were used when he had $25 available.

Twice earlier in the session, he had the nuts and he used larger denomination chips, made eye contact with the dealer and announced the bet. This leads me to ask the following question.

I think in almost all situations, this is a trivial call. Based on the physical aspect, in the moment, I believed that raising might be better. Players at this stake are notorious for a call with weaker flushes even when they are obviously beat. Thinking too much?

Comments

  • Daddyslap Posts: 110Subscriber
    Have you seen them lead rivers in a small manner like this? The river bet is not nutted, but it seems strong like a lower set or a weak flush draw that got there. It almost looks like they think they have showdown value, so I wouldnt be surprised to see something like 88 or 9s8x or 7s8x in addition to 55 and 33. This definitely isn't a bluff and we have #4. I'm caling all day unless I'm certain this bet is pure weakness, and then I'm raising/jamming for fold equity.
  • NLTOPLOPRO Posts: 16Subscriber
    Daddyslap said:
    Have you seen them lead rivers in a small manner like this?
    I have not. I considered maybe a straight or set that also is turning their hand into a bluff..... I am never folding to this sizing and I think that raising is too ambitious. I pride myself on getting the thinnest of value and I think a raise here is way too thin.

  • NitBetNitBet Posts: 40Member
    NLTOPLOPRO said:


    1. Hands were shaking
    Immaterial. I saw once a player who was 'shaking' while playing every hand.

    2. No verbalizing the bet.
    Are you a story-teller while involved in a hand?

    3. No eye contact with me or the dealer.
    Do you want to flirt with your opponents?
    In my experience you need to play a man quite some hours before you can spot a tell (if ever possible), or say
    'recognize his nature'.

    Turn-bet way to small.
    Still drawing or behind.

    Cheers


    PS: blind friend of mine said once 'Poker is dominated by two incentives - greed and fear'
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