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Hand from 2/5 this morning

commanderflatus Posts: 11Subscriber
edited January 24 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I’ll start out and say I folded but I kind of wonder if this is too nitty.

Bellagio 2/5

Hero on button stack 1000
Villian is older Asian guy, seems to be a regular, just sat down. 300 stack

Limps 5 ways to hero with Q♣️Q♠️raises 45
Villain raises 135 from SB
Hero calls
Flop 3♣️8♣️9♣️
Villain goes all-in

Hero?

My thoughts are he has all the aces, kings, AK’s
I block some club draws, but there’s no way I’m good here.

Curious if anyone thinks this is a call and why...
Also, does anyone think this is a raise pre-flop?
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Comments

  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 245Subscriber
    edited January 24
    I think this is a slam dunk call, for all the reasons you mentioned above and also, it's only $165 to win ~$270 and even if he does have AA-KK you could still have outs to a Q or a club. He "just sat down" and "Seems to be a Reg" implies that you don't have a ton to go on so what made you so sure at the time that you weren't good? Why can't he have JJ, AK, AQ or even JT? If he had you covered then maybe, with the right read, but as it stands I'ma callin'.

    I like the preflop raise. I would squeeze with a lot less than QQ which incidentally might be another reason to call the all-in.
  • Daddyslap Posts: 101Subscriber
    Could be doing this with all sorts of shit - 67 one club, 1010, JJ, Axcx, etc. While I can understand the hesitation and don't think this is necessarily a slam dunk/insta call, I'm not folding in this spot vs. an unknown.
    by 1crux
  • commanderflatus Posts: 11Subscriber
    I had no real read except he seemed OMCish.
    I’m a nit I guess...
  • commanderflatus Posts: 11Subscriber
    And last thing - thanks Bart and the members for the great disclosure here. I’m loving this site. Had a great session today despite this hand.
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 245Subscriber

    deadinaditch said:
    I think this is a slam dunk call, for all the reasons you mentioned above and also, it's only $165 to win ~$270 and even if he does have AA-KK you could still have outs to a Q or a club. He "just sat down" and "Seems to be a Reg" implies that you don't have a ton to go on so what made you so sure at the time that you weren't good? Why can't he have JJ, AK, AQ or even JT? If he had you covered then maybe, with the right read, but as it stands I'ma callin'.

    I like the preflop raise. I would squeeze with a lot less than QQ which incidentally might be another reason to call the all-in.
    I forgot about the 5 limpers who I assume folded so it's actually $165 to win ~$295. The thing is, you were probably right, he most likely has AA or KK and if you could see his cards then folding is obviously correct, but you are getting 1.8:1 and all you would have to do is add AKs into his range and it's break even, add QQ and AKo and it's a race with the dead money being the prize.

  • commanderflatus Posts: 11Subscriber
    edited January 24
    Yes, sorry. Limpers folded.

    Here is the solver output for what I estimated his range. I guess I had adequate odds to call.

    Looking at this and running the numbers I think I should have 4 bet or shipped it pre flop.

    PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.12.4.1

    (Equity, Win, Tie)
    Player 1: 43.3% 41.7% 3.32% [QcQs]
    Player 2: 56.7% 55.0% 3.32% {QQ+, AKs, KQs}

    Board: [9c 8c 3c ? ?]
    Deal To: River
    Dead Cards: {}

    Monte Carlo Simulation: 1000000 trials

    Notes:

  • LatvianMissile Posts: 263Subscriber
    Two important things:
    What position is V in? and did he limp re-raise?

    Has he played any hands or is this is first hand?

    I think I'd honestly lean towards a fold, players that buy in short at 2/5 tend to not be the type to 3! TT or JJ. I think he'd have the AcKx or at least the Kc if he's jamming AK so you're either a slight favorite over AK or a dog to AA, KK. Yes, it's nitty, but unless the V has shown to be loose, I fold, especially with these not so great pot odds.
  • commanderflatus Posts: 11Subscriber
    I believe V was SB and he’s only been here for an orbit or two. I think he was moved from a 1/3 table and I haven’t seen him being active.

    I know it looks like I am still trying to sell myself that this was the correct play. I think my fold is also reflective of too much online play recently (where I think it’s a fold unless you have HUD stats to push you to a call).

    What I’ve taken away from this thread is that if this guys seemed looser it’s probably a call. Also I need to loosen up somewhat, not necessarily in this exact spot, but definitely in general.
  • hustlin Posts: 354Subscriber
    given the Pot to stack ratio you cant fold. you said he started with 300 right?
    and u called 135 preflop. and hes left with 165?
    am I missing something or is this not an auto snap call?
  • commanderflatus Posts: 11Subscriber
    edited January 25
    Apparently I’m an auto-snap nit!
    At the time I was reading this V as OMCish. If I had to do it over again I would call having done the solver above.

    Actually if I had to do it over again I would shove pre to try to achieve whatever fold equity you have against the Villian.
  • Superfly Posts: 558Subscriber
    With V at only about 60 bbs, I think 4bet shoving QQ makes the most sense, even against an OMC.
    by 1crux
  • commanderflatus Posts: 11Subscriber
    I hadn’t run this spot through a solver but that’s the conclusion that I have reached as well. Even against a tight OMC range we have about 35% equity plus some amount of fold equity (even from OMC).
  • PBJTIME Posts: 345Subscriber
    Math is off from some of the previous posters. It’s 165 to win 460. I’m never folding getting almost 3:1.
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