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River raise fold for value or just call?

5/5 600 cap at the Gardens in LA. Hero is 2k eff and main villain is OMC type who covers the table with about 3.5k. He’s aware of his image and occasionally uses it to exploit tight opponents. We notice in the past that he tends to play looser when up and tighter when down. Hero’s image is generally good/tight.

Hero AKc from HJ. Hero raise 25. Omc calls from BB along with UTG. (80)

Flop Ad2d7s. Hero overbets 100 to look bluffy and also deny equity (mistake?) and omc calls. V3 folds. (280)

Turn Ks giving us top two. Omc leads out 100. Hero calls. (580)

River 8s completing the backdoor. Omc leads 200. What is our best play here? Unlikely sets are in play (I think) so we’re ahead of everything in OMC’s range except the weird flush draw combos. Do we just call or raise fold for value? I think folding is not an option here.

Comments

  • Steveo76 Posts: 157Subscriber
    edited January 26
    I would just call the river.

    When he bets into you on the turn it feels like he has AsXs and he is setting his own price. Or maybe he has AK like you (a lot of OMC types don't re-raise AK pre-flop in my experience).

    Then when he bets again on the flush card river I can't see this being from a worse made hand than yours. I'm struggling to see how he arrives here with a different 2 pair like this. And I don't think he'd wrestle the betting lead off you for two streets with just an ace after you've overbet the pot on the flop with your taggy image and AK is so obviously out there.

  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 408Subscriber
    I think it's just a call. The only value hands he has that you beat are 2 pair in the form of A2, A7 & A8, and it's tough to imagine A8 taking this line, especially when it can't be an A8 w/ a flush draw. There are also fewer combos of A2 & A7 suited given the board & your hand. I have to wonder if he would CR the flop or bet larger OTT with an A2 or A7 hand. I have seen some people check call flop, lead turn when the turn improves their hand in some way. In this case it is more likely to be in the form of a draw, something like Kx of diamonds or other face cards w/ diamonds. It could also be an A with a spade draw, which has you beat OTR. If he took this line with a diamond draw, then he's not calling a raise OTR. This seems like one of those spots where if our opponents range is quite polarized to nuttish hands & bluffs, and our hand is strong but not the nuts then we should just call.
  • HurtLocker Posts: 24Subscriber
    Thanks for the feedback.
    Spoiler:
    We just call and he tables A8o thinking it’s good. He was surprised to see AK so I’m guessing he put us on only top pair or perhaps wasn’t thinking beyond his own holdings.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 461Subscriber
    edited January 27
    Would re-evaluate read of "OMC" due to call pre-flop with A8o in BB. I would entertain a min-click on the river as the turn and river bet sizing does not indicate he is that strong.
  • Baggio95Baggio95 Posts: 10Subscriber
    I would raise fold for value. What about raising the turn to 300?
  • crux Posts: 106Subscriber
    Why not raise turn with what looks like a blocker bet from V?
    Raising on the river seems like an overplay and potential spew if you are planning to fold if jammed on.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 461Subscriber
    crux said:
    Why not raise turn with what looks like a blocker bet from V?
    Raising on the river seems like an overplay and potential spew if you are planning to fold if jammed on.
    I agree that you should lean towards raising the turn, maybe to $225-$250. Disagree with raising river with intent to fold to a jam as spew if you feel you can get value from worse hands, but confidently fold if re-raised.
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