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River Value with KK

100/200 in Budapest, 100K ef. it's about $400.

500 btn straddle, Hero KsKh from BB call, (the table was very agressive so I felt it's time for limp/raising) 4 more calls, btn checks. (3000)

Flop Qs5s6d. Hero bets 2500 Btn calls. He's a normal average player. (8000)

Turn 5h. Hero bets 5500 Btn calls. (19000)

River 5d. Hero bets 20000 Btn thinks for a while and calls.

What is my best river line here? I also had the idea of check/raising river because he bets Qx anyway. Againts calling station oppoents using a bigger overbet size maybe even all in?



Comments

  • LatvianMissile Posts: 254Subscriber
    I think I'd just jam. It's a ridiculous overbet, but if someone has a Q, you're probably getting called enough to make it more profitable than a pot sized bet or a 2x pot. I think most players are still going to talk themselves into a call with a Q and nittier players will fold it out.
  • Daddyslap Posts: 96Subscriber
    I like it all the way around - You know your river sizing is good when the villain tank calls. I can argue for a larger turn bet, but your sizing was within the range, so kudos.

    If you check the river, the result is typically going to be a check back - none of the draws got there and only nutted hands remain. Casual players will check back a Q assuming they are chopping, so your overbet lead on the river is very polarizing leading you to get called lighter than a Q in some cases.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 453Subscriber
    You can look up Zeebo theorem. People don’t fold full houses. I would like to try 25-30K overbet.
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