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TPGK on monotone board w/ 2nd nut flush draw multi-way

GarlandGarland Posts: 516Subscriber
edited February 3 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Location: Matrix in San Jose, CA
Stakes: $2/$3/$5, $600 max

Effective stack $600.

The table is loose and average aggressive. Main villain in this hand is VPIPing massively (showing up with any trash J6o, K8o, etc to a raise) and is not shy at all about betting and is by far the most aggressive. If he calls a pre-flop raise, he has no virtually no concept of check to the raiser. He will come out betting 2nd pair on turn and/or river just because he doesn't know what else to do it seems. He is hitting a lot of hands.

Pre-flop ($10 - 9 players) - UTG+1 open $20 A Q and I am called in 4 spots including MP, and villain in SB.

Flop ($95 after drop - 5 players): A 8 3. For this number of players and with my 2nd nut draw, I check for pot control, MP bets $30, SB calls, I call.

Turn ($185 - 3 players) - 3 . SB checks, I check, MP bets $50, SB calls, I call. I figure MP probably has a weakish A.

River ($335 - 3 players) - J. SB donks $100. I look left and MP doesn't look happy. I ???

Comments

  • PokerShaman Posts: 107Subscriber
    edited February 3
    You have told us that this villain often, or even generally, donkbets weak made hands. You haven't told us, perhaps you don't have the data, what the villain does with nutted hands.

    One story I can tell myself about this hand is that the villain flopped a flush and LOLslowplayed it, waiting for a safe river card to put the hammer down.

    Another story is that this villain has a hand like KhJx, has missed their nut flush draw, but paired the jack, and is, consistent with their history, donkbetting their pair for lack of a better plan.

    There are only three combos of KhJx. There are some more (not a lot more, but some) flush combos the villain can have -- unless they will play any two suited in this spot, which is not out of the question, in which case they have rather more flush combos.

    Then of course the villain could be spazzing with some amazing hand. Who knows?

    I think though that, even though MP doesn't look like they like this spot, their presence weighs on the "fold" side of the scales, which is already weighted fairly heavily.

    I'd say fold here, and don't lose any sleep over it, even if MP folds behind and the villain shows some sort of irrational bluff.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 290Subscriber
    I think I'd call. I feel like if the SB had a strong hand he'd bet more. I think it's really close, however. It seems like MP has a weaker A, and SB could have J x or JxXh and just betting cause he doesn't know what's going on. MP being behind us makes it close, but I think I'd call getting 4-1.

    Thinking about the flop, I do think this is the best hand for you to check. I don't like checking for pot control, but it's more that you probably don't have a weaker hand your opening with only one heart in it. Maybe AxJh, but I wouldn't open that in a loose game from UTG 1.
  • Superfly Posts: 590Subscriber
    I think I’d just call on the river. With boats and flushes out there seems unlikely that SB or MP would call a raise with worse. And with a little luck by calling you might get MP to overcall getting 5:1. And you never know, SB could have some nonsense that beats you.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 516Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I ended up making the crying call, MP folded and SB showed up with J 2. MP claimed he had AQ no heart which made sense. I was not having a good session and perhaps that influenced my decision. The sizing doesn't seem like bluff, but value. Maybe if I were in a better state of mind, I could have made the disciplined fold.
  • Superfly Posts: 590Subscriber
    In hindsight I think you’re right. $100 donk on river from SB looks very strong, value heavy and sneaky. But it can be tough to get away from such head shaker plays.
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