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1/2 facing turn shove with a set on a dry board

Villian (MAWG) has $650, I have $450. I have only been at the table with this player for an hour or two. Decent player that plays aggressive but can also show up with some garbage (I saw him show down Q3 suited)

OTTH

Villian: UTG+1 raises to $20 (pretty damn sizable open for this 1/2 game)
Hero: 99s cutoff (should I be 3! this to such a big open?)
Hero calls

Flop ($43): Kd 9s 2h

Villian leads for $30, I call

Turn ($103): As

Villian leads for $65, I raise to $160 (leaving me with 240 behind)
Villian snap shoves, covering me

Hero: ??

I know he could do this with AK or potentially worse, but he could also easily have AAs or KKs. Should I be laying this down? Thanks for any feedback.

Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 515Subscriber
    edited February 5
    Snap call.

    Given what you've outlined, this is a combo counting/equity calculation:
    Combos you beat: AK (full 9 combos)
    Combos you are beaten by: AA, KK (3 combos each = 6 combos)

    The math is a little skewed, because AK has 4 outs, and against AA/KK, you only have 1 out, but for simplicity let's say the river is inconsequential. You are winning (9/15 = 60% of the time. That means you need 60% equity to make this call (slightly less because AK has more outs than you if he over-set you)

    You are asked to call 240 into a pot that has 728: you need 240/(728+240) = 24.7% equity to call. Again we are ignoring the river outs disparity, but you can see you have a clear call.

    There are some lol live dynamics including him maybe having 22 or K Q, so there are some fudge factors, but even on the strict range you presented, this is an easy call.
  • cdevine Posts: 3Member
    Garland said:
    Snap call.

    Given what you've outlined, this is a combo counting/equity calculation:
    Combos you beat: AK (full 9 combos)
    Combos you are beaten by: AA, KK (3 combos each = 6 combos)

    The math is a little skewed, because AK has 4 outs, and against AA/KK, you only have 1 out, but for simplicity let's say the river is inconsequential. You are winning 60% of the time. That means you need 60% equity to make this call (slightly less because AK has more outs than you if he over-set you)

    You are asked to call 240 into a pot that has 728: you need 240/(728+240) = 24.7% equity to call. Again we are ignoring the river outs disparity, but you can see you have a clear call.

    There are some lol live dynamics including him maybe having 22 or K Q, so there is some fudge factors, but even on the strict range you presented, this is an easy call.
    Thanks for the detailed reply! I ended up making the call and he showed KK. The river was a 9 :)
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 515Subscriber
    edited February 5
    cdevine said:
    Garland said:
    Snap call.

    Given what you've outlined, this is a combo counting/equity calculation:
    Combos you beat: AK (full 9 combos)
    Combos you are beaten by: AA, KK (3 combos each = 6 combos)

    The math is a little skewed, because AK has 4 outs, and against AA/KK, you only have 1 out, but for simplicity let's say the river is inconsequential. You are winning 60% of the time. That means you need 60% equity to make this call (slightly less because AK has more outs than you if he over-set you)

    You are asked to call 240 into a pot that has 728: you need 240/(728+240) = 24.7% equity to call. Again we are ignoring the river outs disparity, but you can see you have a clear call.

    There are some lol live dynamics including him maybe having 22 or K Q, so there is some fudge factors, but even on the strict range you presented, this is an easy call.
    Thanks for the detailed reply! I ended up making the call and he showed KK. The river was a 9 :)
    No problem. Nice suck out! I would also say that I would discount KK from his range because you very often see people slow-play top set on dry rainbow boards or at the very least not bet 3/4 pot.
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