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Facing a River Donk

LatvianMissile Posts: 268Subscriber
1-2-5 PLO 8-handed. 310 eff. H covers. Table just opened up, this is still the first orbit.
(H and the PFR have 1K eff, which is why I called pre on the button)

UTG 1 to 10, HJ (villain in this hand an Old white guy) calls, Hero calls on Bu with A 7 8 4, SB and BB call.
Flop (50): T 9 6 .
Checks to H, who bets 30, only HJ calls.

Turn (110): T . Hero bets 80, HJ snap calls.

River (270): A. V leads 100. Hero?

Comments

  • High__Rolla Posts: 798Subscriber
    His range for check calling on the flop is mainly weaker flashes, sets, and top two pair. All of those hands have now improved to a full house except for weaker flushes. So, if you think he is capable of turning a weaker flush into a bluff here, then you could call but in my opinion the described villain is unlikely to be doing that. So I’d fold.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 320Subscriber
    Check/call, check/call, lead screams straight flush/quads/FH here, any K-high diamond flush is shaking in their boots at this runout. Fold and show your hand, offer him the $100 to show you four cards that can't beat A-high diamonds.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 481Subscriber
    edited February 11
    I agree we should be folding on the river for the reasons stated above. However, I think another important question is: should we be checking back the turn? Are we really protecting against QJxx, J8xx or any hand that doesn't have boat outs? I think we can only get one more street of value from inferior flushes, and it can be the river depending on runout and villain reaction.
  • Liveshark Posts: 15Subscriber
    edited February 12
    Edit
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 268Subscriber
    Garland said:
    I agree we should be folding on the river for the reasons stated above. However, I think another important question is: should we be checking back the turn? Are we really protecting against QJxx, J8xx or any hand that doesn't have boat outs? I think we can only get one more street of value from inferior flushes, and it can be the river depending on runout and villain reaction.
    That's a good question. I thought I could get a worse flush to call the turn. Maybe a check is a better play there?
  • NLTOPLOPRO Posts: 16Subscriber
    On the river, I think it is a fold.

    However, I think the more important question in this thread is to bet or check the turn..... I think the decision should be Villain dependent. If we are playing vs a competent Villain, he will realize that we are almost never betting the flop without the nuts. When the board pairs, and Hero bets again, the Villain can C/R with any 4 for a very profitable play.

    However, if we are playing vs the typical drooling recreational player, they will call with trips and only raise with the absolute nuts. This will give us the opportunity to bet for value on the turn and check back the river. This gives us 1 street of value that we miss if we check the turn. I suppose we could check the turn and bet/fold the river, but we are giving the V a free look to boat up when he has trips so, I think the turn play is better.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 798Subscriber
    NLTOPLOPRO said:

    However, if we are playing vs the typical drooling recreational player, they will call with trips and only raise with the absolute nuts. This will give us the opportunity to bet for value on the turn and check back the river. This gives us 1 street of value that we miss if we check the turn. I suppose we could check the turn and bet/fold the river, but we are giving the V a free look to boat up when he has trips so, I think the turn play is better.
    Your point is valid, however how many bare trips hands make it past the flop? I think it is a small part of his range since (except for flopped two pair or a set) he would need a flopped flush with a bare ten to make it to the turn and allow Hero to get this value.

    If we assume the calls the flop with the following range, that is 17230 combos:
    50%:dd, 50%:TT!dd96, 50%:99!ddT6, 50%:66!ddT9, 50%:T9!dd, 50%:T6!dd

    Of these total combos, only 1239 combos make it to the turn with a flush with a ten, but are not full (50%:ddT!96). That is only 7% of his range that makes it to the turn.

    About 46% of this range on the turn has filled up and the rest still has a weaker flush. I think this is the part to focus on and so I contend a turn check followed by a river evaluate is best.
  • LatvianMissile Posts: 268Subscriber
    High__Rolla said:
    NLTOPLOPRO said:

    However, if we are playing vs the typical drooling recreational player, they will call with trips and only raise with the absolute nuts. This will give us the opportunity to bet for value on the turn and check back the river. This gives us 1 street of value that we miss if we check the turn. I suppose we could check the turn and bet/fold the river, but we are giving the V a free look to boat up when he has trips so, I think the turn play is better.
    Your point is valid, however how many bare trips hands make it past the flop? I think it is a small part of his range since (except for flopped two pair or a set) he would need a flopped flush with a bare ten to make it to the turn and allow Hero to get this value.

    If we assume the calls the flop with the following range, that is 17230 combos:
    50%:dd, 50%:TT!dd96, 50%:99!ddT6, 50%:66!ddT9, 50%:T9!dd, 50%:T6!dd

    Of these total combos, only 1239 combos make it to the turn with a flush with a ten, but are not full (50%:ddT!96). That is only 7% of his range that makes it to the turn.

    About 46% of this range on the turn has filled up and the rest still has a weaker flush. I think this is the part to focus on and so I contend a turn check followed by a river evaluate is best.
    How do you figure out how many combos V has in his range? Just want to find a way to figure it out, because that's what helped my NLHE game the most.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 798Subscriber
    LatvianMissile said:


    How do you figure out how many combos V has in his range? Just want to find a way to figure it out, because that's what helped my NLHE game the most.
    You have to use the count function on propokertools.com. Be sure to enter the dead cards on the board and in your hand to get an accurate count. You also have to be careful to not double count which is the reason for all the “!” in the syntax above.
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