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River spot at $1-$2, call or fold?

I am on the big blind with K:d: J:s: with 6 limpers. UTG is a 40-ish previously unknown player to me, except I have not seen him raise pre, and have seen him show down AK at the river in a limped pot, his vpip does not seem to be high for the game and I have seen nothing out of line except on the passive side. In view of this I decide to limp. UTG is main villain, has about $450 and I have him covered.
Flop J:s: T:c: 7:h:
I lead out for 12 (pot bet) and I get 3 callers, UTG and two middle position players.
Turn J:h:.
I bet $50. UTG calls and the others fold.
River 4:s: and I lead for $70.
UTG takes his time and then raises to $170.
He seems pretty comfortable.
I tanked, and folded.
Thoughts?



Comments

  • QueensRook Posts: 17Subscriber
    Correction: of course there is only one J:s: either I had J:c:
  • joshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    Tough to fold getting 4:1, but based on the fact that V did not raise pre with AK previously, I can get behind an exploitative fold. Guys like this just aren’t raising as a river bluff very often (if ever).
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,550Subscriber
    What very likely happened here is that he has Jack 10 Suited under the gun and was afraid of a strait. Then he fills up and raises the river. When I find it low stakes is that when the board is a made hand the fish tend to play all of their non nut hands possibly
  • Daddyslap Posts: 110Subscriber
    I'm just not sure we can fold here - Even with Villain's passiveness and now all the sudden getting aggressive on a blank river, he can do this with Any J including QJ, J9, J8, etc. He might also be doing with with QQ, KK, and AA) that he limped (being so passive, as you describe). Yes, Villain's behavior is heavily weighted toward value with the raise (almost entirely), but you are at the top of your range on this board. It is a close spot, but we are getting good enough odds to pay this off if we are behind.

    I'd shrug call here.
  • JredA Posts: 100Subscriber
    The question is does villain do this for value with hands we tie or beat: KJ, QJ, J9. Maybe 1-2 combo's of AA/KK as mentioned above. A pure bluff would be very rare in this spot.

    We lose to AJ and JT. I would expect them to raise 77 with a high frequency on this turn.

    We are getting great odds with his sizing. If we assign villain the range of AJ, JT and 1 combo of 77's for value thats 8 combos. So we only need villain to do this with 2 combos we beat to basically break even.

    I would expect to get shown a full house often, but due to the odds and possibility of villain doing this with hands we beat, I would have a hard time folding in this given spot.
  • abstractls Posts: 35Subscriber
    I puke fold. I can't find a bluff and at this level river raises are almost always nutted hands unless it's a complete spazz player. JT seems like a very plausible hand I dont think even AJ is raising that river. If he has AJ he certainly would be afraid of the straight.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 516Subscriber
    I'm not making a hero fold with this hand. You bet small enough on the river to induce a smallish raise from any J. For the price, I would just shrug call it and not sweat the actual results much.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,550Subscriber
    Garland said:
    I'm not making a hero fold with this hand. You bet small enough on the river to induce a smallish raise from any J. For the price, I would just shrug call it and not sweat the actual results much.
    I got down my list if I can't find what strong/bluff range to put him on.
    #1 passive and now shows aggression - bad
    #2 raised the river - bad
    #3 raised river over $100 at a 1/2 game - really bad
    #4 took his time - which polarizes his range to nuts or bluff. Leaning on nuts. Usually I see low stakes players do quick actions when they are bluffing.
    #5 you are getting 4:1 to call...... You have to ask is he bluffing 25% of the time here?
    #6 what bluffs is he repping? That 4 is meaningless. Usually I see players in low stakes bluff when the 2nd or 3rd care pairs trying to rep they called down with middle pair and now have trips. I say "rec plz" and call always and 90% of the time they got some busted draw.

    If he min-raised..... ugh... I'd sigh and call that off. That's more than 5:1 to call. Can he be bluffing 18% of the time or misread his hand or the board? Yea that borderlines my call with the 10% spazz ratio limit. There is also future ev that is they see you lay down to a river min-raise you are asking to get bluffed by a fish later.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,195Subscriber
    Judging from the responses, this seems like a close spot, but I'd lay it down. There's hardly any worse Jx he can have, but a whole lot of better hands than ours.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 516Subscriber
    edited February 19
    We are asked to call $100 to win a pot of $400. This means we need $100/($100+$400) = 20% equity to make this call. We only need to be good 1 in 5 times!

    Combo counting:
    Hands we are beaten by: AJ (4 combos), JT (3 combos), J7 (3 combos), TT (3 combos), 77 (3 combos), 89 (16 combos) = 32 combos

    Hands we beat: QJ, J9, J8 = (3x4 = 12 combos)

    12/(12+32) = 27.3% which surpasses this threshold.

    If we take J8 out of the equation, then it's 8/(8+32) = 20% and it's a break even call, and I'm gaining information, which you can't really assign a dollar amount, but is still valuable.

    I'm not putting it past an unknown rec player to overplay a worse J, and I'm just going to find out what he's made of. If I get more information down the road about his raising range obviously, I can make an adjustment. For KJ, I'm calling and for QJ or less, I would fold.
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    I don’t make big folds at low stakes games getting good prices. Just shrug call. Let’s not fold near top of our range getting such a good price. People do weird stuff. It’s 1/2. Poker isn’t about not getting stacked. Sometimes you’re going to lose a pot and it’s ok. But folding here is a little too much of a deviation
  • abstractls Posts: 35Subscriber
    edited February 19
    Garland said:


    Hands we beat: QJ, J9, J8 = (3x4 = 12 combos)

    I agree we beat these but I almost never if ever see a player of that type raise the river in this spot with any of those hands. It's exploitable but players just play way too face up at 1/3 and I think you have less than a 5% chance of being good here. I expect to see JT or 77 here often
  • QueensRook Posts: 17Subscriber
    I have enjoyed reading the input, thanks to everyone who weighed in on this. I was doubtful that J9/J8 offsuit was in his early position limping range, and even more skeptical that he would raise these on the river. I am sure he limps QJ but I don't know if he raises it on the river. So yes there are 12 possible combos that I beat, but these I considered low probability combos compared to all that beat me. I wanted to call, but felt the only way I am winning is he has QJ and risked a river raise.
    by 1CycleV
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