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1/3 Very Deep 4bet pot with river jam

doctorj Posts: 3Subscriber
edited February 18 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3 with standard opening to $20-30. I am in CO with 98ss ($4,500 starting)

MP ($1,500 effective) opens to $25 and a passive player to his left, doing a lot of limp folding, calls.

I make it $125

Villain in SB ($4,000 behind, seems like a solid, knowledgeable young player, capable of 4bet bluffing and value betting) makes it $375 and original raiser and caller fold.

History: He has seen me be pretty active 3betting the weaker players. This is the first time he has 4bet, but he has also been active 3 betting.

I call and we are heads up



JsJc5d (Pot $800)

Villain bets $175
I call (I think about raising here, but decided to see a turn and see if he shuts down or gives me an opportunity to bluff on a T, 7, 6 or spade and could even hit an 8 or 9 for a pair and be ahead of his AQ, AK)

Turn 9c (Pot $1,150)

Villain bets $750 and I call

River 2d (Pot $2,650)

Villain jams for $2,800

Hero?

My thoughts...If he is a thinking player, he should be playing pot control with QQ+ since I have TJs, JQs, JKs, AJs and JJ all in my range. I have now called 2 streets of aggression and could easily have a jack. So his bet could be turning a club draw into a continued bluff and now just jamming the river, he has AJ or he is overplaying QQ+. More combos of AKcc, AQcc, A2-5cc than AJ....but I haven't played with him enough to be confident he wouldn't overplay his QQ+ here.
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Comments

  • jtm1208 Posts: 14Member
    If he thinks your are 3b too light and is looking to take advantage of you, his range is very wide PF and includes a lot of J's. I think he could have JTs+, AJo, JJ, maybe KJo on small occasions. He also has AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, TT, KQs in his range.

    Flop bet is expected: I don't think you can eliminate much of his range here. Same range moving forward to the turn. For you though, I think this is a flop you can simply let go of. to outplay your opponent here, you are going to need to get a large chunk of your stack in, if not all of it. That's very risky here, when he's probably not letting go of any Jacks.

    If you decide you are going to try and outplay him, I would raise this flop. Which I would do a certain percentage of the time with trips.

    As played to the turn: I think we can start narrowing his range here. I think we can eliminate offsuit combos of AK/AQ, TT, all suited combos of AK/AQ except clubs, QQ, KK. I think his range moving forward consists of AA, JTs+, KQ suited and not suited, AKcc/AQcc, JJ.

    Turn: this spot sucks, yes you've made a pair, but you don't really know where you are in the hand. Folding, calling, raising, all seem sucky. Folding is fine, better than calling IMO. Could also click-back raise here. I think that'll give you a good indicator of where you are in the hand, + you take the betting lead from him and will have the option of checking the river a lot more often. I'd probably go raise, fold, call in that order here, but like none of them are really clear cut defined best options.

    As played on the river: when he shoves, I think we can remove combos of KQ from his range. I think he shoves all of his jacks, and his missed AQ/AKcc. Occasionally, AA will check and occasionally it will shove. I don't think there are enough bluff combos here to justify calling. Partial reason I like raising the turn, I think you are able to define his range a little better as he will 4b shove his really good hands and call with his marginal drawing hands

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 516Subscriber
    One aspect of the 89s hand I dislike is the fact that QJT boards hit both AK and 98. You can call me a nit, but I'm folding to the cold 4. As described you are going against a good thinking villain, and I would focus on exploiting other weaker players than trying to out think said villain in a 4-bet bloated pot with this particular hand even with position.

    As played, I'm folding the flop. You have a better case if it's TsTc5d as it's much easier to pick up equity.

    As played on the turn, I think calling or folding is in play, but raising is out.

    On the river, as you mentioned he could have busted clubs, but you don't know if he's overplaying a hand that beats you. Therein lies the difficulty of playing such a marginal hand. I wouldn't be in this situation, but I'm probably folding unless villain shows maniacal tendencies.
  • crux Posts: 119Subscriber
    Given the description of the Villain in the hand, I think it's a 5! or fold pre, but mostly should be a fold. As @Garland mentioned, catching the bottom end of the straight doesn't feel great and neither does a flush. You're really hoping for trips, two pairs or top end of a straight and that is a lot of wishful thinking.

    As played, on the flop, same decision: raise or fold. You only have weak backdoors and a good opponent betting into you. Should probably just be a fold since you don't really block any combinations of Jx that villain could have turned into a 3! bluff pre.

    On the turn, if I didn't raise the flop, I'd consider the raise here to look like a delayed value bet w/ a J, or 99 hitting, but I'd need some real history with the V to feel comfortable that his line represents overpairs or draws. Otherwise I think it's definitely time to fold.

    On the river, I can't find the hero button for most of my stack. If V is bluffing with AK or QT or some other hand that actually beats you, so be it. Folding.
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