Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

2/5, river dilemma

Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
It's my 6th hand at the table and I won my 2nd hand by opening pre and cbetting. V in the hand is a younger Indian guy that I have never noticed before. He hasn't played a hand yet and I obviously don't have a read on his play.

Eff. stacks are 500.

4 limpers and I check it through in the BB with 57o.

Flop (20) 37J rainbow. I lead for 15 and V is the only caller.

Turn (50). 7. Awesome. I lead for 35, he snap calls.

River (120) J Not that awesome. I lead for 85, He makes it 185.

I think his range has a ton of J's in it. He could also have 88, 99 although I think most players will raise pre, but I don't know the V at this point. Is it possible that V could have floated to hit a scare card and take it away? That is probably way overthinking things at this point.

How do you proceed?

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Don't love the flop bet. While it makes sense to bet to fold out overcards in this situation a lot of the time, your kicker is so low than I don't think you can get called by anything worse, unless the last player to act is going to hang on with an A.

    At the river, I think you have to fold here. There's nothing you beat that he's doing this with for value. You didn't say which position the villain is in, but he could be as strong as KJ here, and in late position he has lots of combos of J9+ in his range. And a player that is sophisticated enough to call twice on a float should know enough that you are repping three Js here and that $100 more isn't going to get most people off any jack. This is a pretty easy fold in my book.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    As played, too many J's in your range for him to bluff here. I wouldn't lead flop or river, but would fold very quickly as played to raise
  • BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro
    No one, and I mean no one is raising 88 or 99 to turn their hand into a bluff to get you off of a 7. You have way too many Js in your own range here.

    Unfortunately this is a simple check fold on the river. It is a little different if say, you had raised out of the blinds and were heads up. In that scenario it is possible that a guy could have held on two streets with a now counterfeited pocket pair, but in a limped pot, after seeing you lead into three people, there is very little chance that this guy is bluffing.

    Bart
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    I insta-mucked when he raised. I hadn't thought about check/folding the river though, although it makes sense in hindsight.

    I'm not sure why I got hung up on this hand after several hours and a great session, it just kind of haunted me all night long thinking about it.

    Thanks for the feedback.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    Flop bet is really bad. Why are you betting MPWK on a rainbow flop into the field?
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    David Chan said

    Flop bet is really bad. Why are you betting MPWK on a rainbow flop into the field?
    Because aside from this person, I have played at least 300 hours of poker with the other 8 players at the table this year and I never expect anyone to have anything here aside from a weak J. Knowing the significant history with all of the players, I would estimate that I am going to take it down outright >50% of the time.

    I would never bet the flop anywhere other then this poker room. We have 1 table of 2/5, it is the biggest game spread, and everyone knows each other. Out of that pool, there are a handful of winning players, etc...
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    "Taking it down" is not a good reason for betting middle pair weak kicker on this flop into the field.
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    David Chan said

    "Taking it down" is not a good reason for betting middle pair weak kicker on this flop into the field.

    First- how about, as mentioned, I have hundreds of hours with 8/9 players on the table and I expect it to win the pot outright >50% of the time.


    You don't think making a bet that has +EV expectations is better then checking and then presumably folding due to the relative weakness of the hand? Of course it seems wrong in a vacuum, but given the dynamic and the history, what is another way to have a +EV outcome? I would think that if check/folding has a negative expectation, check-raising is suicidal and leading is +EV, this would be an easy choice?
  • ILYA Posts: 129Subscriber
    I am more curious about the source of this wild imagination. I see it in the posts way too often. Floating with air, calling down with underpair then raising river as a bluff... where is this happening? where do people witness this and make this part of their reads? And most importantly, why does that become one of the primary reads, as opposed to "I got rivered. 90% chance is I'm beat. I'm checking." ?
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    If a bet here from you takes down the pot more than 50% of the time, then I assume that you must be betting this flop with 100% of your airball range, right? If so, then I have no problem with your turning MPWK into a bluff here since you are bluffing this flop with 100% of your airball range.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    BTW, check/folding here can never have a negative expectation because folding doesn't cost us any money.

    The real question is whether betting MPWK on a rainbow flop into the entire field of 5 Villains (4 limpers and the SB) will be more +EV than checking. (with intention of folding to strength or maybe check/calling or CRing against a weak bet)

    FWIW, 75 will run into Jx+ more than 50% of the time when you bet into 5 other players. You can see this easily if you do a Flopzilla simulation. I really doubt that anyone will really fold Jx for you. So, I think your assumption that your flop bet takes this down more than 50% of the time is probably an overly optimistic assumption.
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    . So, I think your assumption that your flop bet takes this down more than 50% of the time is probably an overly optimistic assumption.
    I don't want to keep going around and around about this, especially since this wasn't the point of the question to begin with....

    In this particular game, leading out into almost every flop when the action preflop was limped is profitable, assuming the board is not connected and does not have an A. I realize this is completely not standard play and not something I would do anywhere but here. I spent 2 weeks at Borgata for their tourney series and didn't play like this. I am headed to Parx and don't plan to play like this, etc... A friend of mine and I have been tracking this specific trend. For the last 3 sessions, I have won on the flop when leading into a limped pot (with air, mp, tp, etc...) I have won 8/11, 5/12, 6/10 hands.

    The game is so pitiful that I worry about the impact it is having on my game as a whole and work dilligently to try and not develop habits that can be dangerous in other games.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    So, you bluff 100% of your airball range here in this spot in this casino, right? Then I am fine with bluffing with 75 too.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    Zach Z-H said
    You don't think making a bet that has +EV expectations is better then checking and then presumably folding due to the relative weakness of the hand? Of course it seems wrong in a vacuum, but given the dynamic and the history, what is another way to have a +EV outcome? I would think that if check/folding has a negative expectation, check-raising is suicidal and leading is +EV, this would be an easy choice?
    The way you're calculating EV has some mistakes in it. If you set open-mucking your hand at 0 EV, then checking any flop is ALWAYS +EV.

    In summary, just because a bet is +EV does not make it better than a check. As a simple example, let's say you're in position on the river with A-high and you lose to 90% of villain's range, but you think villain will fold 54% of the time to a pot-sized bet (and never call with worse). So a bet here is +EV since we only need him to fold 50%, but a check is better.

    Basically ditto everything David Chan said here- unless you bet your entire range of air, then betting middle pair doesn't make any sense. Also, what are you doing with J7 here?
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    As played you fold. River betting is a clear mistake with this runout in a limped pot when you are check/called to the river. It is 100% a check/fold. FWIW I think your history with the rest of the table shouldn't matter all that much if even one of the Vs in a limped pot is unknown. I think whatever marginal value you accrue from playing this 100% lead out style in limped pots isn't worth consistently making mathematically fundamental mistakes.
Sign In or Register to comment.