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Call down with a set?

GarlandGarland Posts: 515Subscriber
edited February 24 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Location: Lucky Chances in Colma, CA
Stakes: $3/$5, $1000 max

Villain (covers) is UTG and a TAG pro caliber player: very disciplined, capable of thin value bets and making big lay downs. His range UTG is very snug.

Pre-flop ($8 - 9 players) - Villain (covers) raises UTG to $20, I am in HJ with 5 5 ($660) and call, button calls ($500), SB calls ($700).

Flop ($79 after drop - 4 players): K Q 5. UTG bets $50, I call, button folds, SB calls.

Turn ($229 after drop - 3 players): 7 UTG bets $160, I just call again, SB folds.

River ($548 after drop - 2 players) - J. UTG bets $180, I ??? (have $430 remaining)

Comments

  • MattyB Posts: 66Subscriber
    What were your reasons for not raising on the flop? With just over 100 bbs, seems like we should be looking to get it in.
    by 1CycleV
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    Never folding. Might just shove because there is no risk of the bet 3! Coming. Flop seems like a clear clear raise. I wouldn’t sweat getting set over set 100bbs deep. I would sweat not getting that last value bet in against two pair though
  • joshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    What a terrible card. If you think he is folding AA, AK, and possibly KJs/QJs for $250 more, then it's just a call. Agree with others though that raising earlier in the hand would let us get max value from AA, AK and KQ.
    by 1CycleV
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 515Subscriber
    joshofalltrades said:
    What a terrible card. If you think he is folding AA, AK, and possibly KJs/QJs for $250 more, then it's just a call. Agree with others though that raising earlier in the hand would let us get max value from AA, AK and KQ.
    Villain is capable of making big lay downs, so I don't believe I'd get AA or AK to pay off if raised in earlier streets.
  • joshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    If he's folding AA and AK to a raise on KQ5 then he is very exploitable and I would be applying pressure often.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,549Subscriber
    Ok so construct his range....

    AA, AK, KQs, KJs... you beat all those. 30 combos of which 18 will call a large raise well maybe.
    KK/QQ = 6 combos. Which you lose to.

    It is very clear you don't have a straight. It is clear he doesn't have a straight. There was no equity to pick up OTT.

    So reverse it. Say you were him and got small raised on the river. What hands do you think the raiser would have that got called down?

    KJ and 55. If you hold a King then it's 6 combos vs 3 of sets. He really has no room to 3b back with the 3 straight on board. You can hold AT (rarely though) he is less likely to hold it.

    So basically your raise is targeting KQ because you might have KJ and there are more combos of that than 55. He has more KQ combos than sets. So I think raising is good. It is also very likely he doesn't perceive you to be as good as you are. Most players don't.

    If you know he is tight UTG and will never raise KQo then I think this is a call.
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    Although we never had T9 or AT its definitely possible for villain to have some combos. If villain is actually good he will have some bluffs in all ranges. He’s not just going to have zero turn bluffs because there is no bdfd. I would assume he would take 1-2 combos of T9s to the felt. The T9d combo is a really good combo because it doesn’t block any flop floats.

    Either way none of these matters enough to get me to not shove. I’ve given up trying to avoid coolers. Especially 120bb deep. It just doesn’t matter

    I’m here for the value
  • ds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
    Play versus this villain's UTG range anytime you can if he folds AA, AK, or KQ on this board. Bombs away, friend.
    by 1CycleV
  • Superfly Posts: 590Subscriber
    edited February 25
    I’m confused by Vs small bet on the river. He has strong nut advantage - you can’t have KK or QQ. Despite that you’ve called a two-thirds PSB on flop and turn, so there is no reason for V to expect that you are weak. He should feel comfortable that you will call a bigger bet, I would think.

    So small river bet makes me wonder if he is weak himself and doing some kind of blocker bet, planning to fold to a shove. But that doesn’t seem to really jive with your description of him as a solid pro-caliber player.

    Or - on another level - is he trying to induce you to shove? That would be pretty damn next level stuff. But could also be looking for monsters under the bed.

    So I’m confused and not sure what he is up to. Seems pretty weak but if this guy is super good I might default to a flat call? Not proud of it tho, and I expect to get roasted by the forum. ;-)

    On a side note, I’m ok with flat on flop with intention to lure BTN and/or SB in. Heads up I could see a raise since it would be very hard for PFR to fold AA, AK, AQ on the flop. And I don’t think he has air when he cbets from EP in 4-way pot. If you raise, however, it’s probably just a one or two streets of value hand since what bluffs could you have? You would probably just call and chase your equity with JT, no? At some point by the river he has to put you on precisely KQ or 55 and give up his one pair hands.

    At first I also thought a turn raise might be in order, but with only $600 back anything less than a shove would be weird, leaving you with a little orphan stack. And a shove could scare off AK/AQ. With less than PSB left on river as played, you would expect it all to go in most of the time anyway, so I actually think flat on turn is fine too. There was even a chance that you could keep SB in that way.

    Interesting hand. Look forward to hearing what happened and what others think.

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 515Subscriber
    edited February 28
    Spoiler:
    I was actually the UTG with K K and was shocked to see HJ just call river and turn over 55. So I wondered if a line such as his is viable, hence the post.
    Other thoughts:
    - I couldn't envision a way to get value except for a crying call from a hand like AK, KJ, KT.. so I sized it as such. I don't know if I made a sizing error on the river.
    - I don't necessarily agree with @3BBRC in regards to having bluffs in my range if I'm a good player. In a 4-way pot, I should be playing relatively straight forward and have virtually no bluffs. My minimum betting hand should be AK. With AQ, I would check-evaluate and most likely call a reasonable bet.
    - If I am in HJ and raising with 55, what bluffs am I representing? There are no flush draws possible. I don't want the possibility of AK or AA to fold and forfeit allowing him to value-own himself. I don't necessarily mind getting some over calls from gutshots/JT or Qx/Kx, backdoor flush draws.
    - I do not have T9s in my UTG range (unless I'm super deep and game conditions warrant it). I may have KQs depending on the game dynamic, but not KQo. Given this fact, I think @Fuzzypup and @Superfly is correct that a 55 is just a river call.
    - For @ds2uared and @joshofalltrades, talk about being exploitable by putting pressure on villain to fold AA or AK by raising I think is silly because on that texture, I have a nut advantage and there are two more players left to act. The hero fold with AA or AK to a flop raise is villain specific, not absolute. I am not folding KQ.
    - Due to the way villain played this hand, a round or so later, I was able to play a hand in a very similar configuration with QQ UTG !20 and get 3 callers, flop came 865r, I bet $40 and same villain in position raised to $120 with 2 players left to act, and I insta-muck.
    Thanks for all your thoughts!
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    Spoiler:
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    I cannot imagine a 2/5 1000 max game that is tough enough to not have T9s utg. And I don’t think we need to have a ton of bluffs but we definitely cannot just bet value on the flop. Maybe we pull it back a little and only bet Four JTs or just the 3 with the bdfd if we really want to reign it in. But I think “4 ways I should never bluff” is an extremely flawed strategy it just means we need to be more selective
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    I cannot imagine a 2/5 1000 max game that is tough enough to not have T9s utg. And I don’t think we need to have a ton of bluffs but we definitely cannot just bet value on the flop. Maybe we pull it back a little and only bet Four JTs or just the 3 with the bdfd if we really want to reign it in. But I think “4 ways I should never bluff” is an extremely flawed strategy it just means we need to be more selective
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    I cannot imagine a 2/5 1000 max game that is tough enough to not have T9s utg. And I don’t think we need to have a ton of bluffs but we definitely cannot just bet value on the flop. Maybe we pull it back a little and only bet Four JTs or just the 3 with the bdfd if we really want to reign it in. But I think “4 ways I should never bluff” is an extremely flawed strategy it just means we need to be more selective
  • Superfly Posts: 590Subscriber
    Nice twist at the end, @Garland. You should consider writing murder mysteries. Maybe with a poker theme .... now that I think about it, I believe poker murder mysteries are a genre ripe for exploitation, and might do it myself!
  • CycleV Posts: 1,195Subscriber
    3BBRC said:
    I cannot imagine a 2/5 1000 max game that is tough enough to not have T9s utg. And I don’t think we need to have a ton of bluffs but we definitely cannot just bet value on the flop. Maybe we pull it back a little and only bet Four JTs or just the 3 with the bdfd if we really want to reign it in. But I think “4 ways I should never bluff” is an extremely flawed strategy it just means we need to be more selective
    There are very few 2/5 lineups in my casino where I would open T9s from UTG. It's an aggressive, reg-heavy game, with a lot of 3! There's usually only 1 table, sometimes 2 on weekends, must move system, and it's usally the biggest NLHE spread in any casino within 200 miles. Your game conditions may be better, but for many of us who play in smaller markets, the 2/5 we see is so different from CA, TX, FL, etc that sometimes I wonder if it's even the same game.
    by 1crux
  • ds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
    CycleV said:
    There are very few 2/5 lineups in my casino where I would open T9s from UTG. It's an aggressive, reg-heavy game, with a lot of 3! There's usually only 1 table, sometimes 2 on weekends, must move system, and it's usally the biggest NLHE spread in any casino within 200 miles. Your game conditions may be better, but for many of us who play in smaller markets, the 2/5 we see is so different from CA, TX, FL, etc that sometimes I wonder if it's even the same game.
    I play in Florida but in a smaller city. Regularly there are 2 games with a must move, sometimes 3. Players are often loose and insanely passive preflop and overall not great at hand reading or understanding board texture. Obviously there are a couple exceptions of good, not great players; there are also villains who will never fold preflop and there's a lot of value to be had.

    I go 50% of the time opening T9s UTG. Stacks are usually pretty short and when they are I just fold. But versus a few deep stacks, the passive nature of everyone's preflop play inclines me to open a bit wider from EP. Everyone just flats with QQ, sometimes KK, and way more often than makes sense, AA. It's quite comical. It doesn't surprise me anymore but it does amaze me.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,195Subscriber
    ds2uared said:


    I play in Florida but in a smaller city. Regularly there are 2 games with a must move, sometimes 3. Players are often loose and insanely passive preflop and overall not great at hand reading or understanding board texture. Obviously there are a couple exceptions of good, not great players; there are also villains who will never fold preflop and there's a lot of value to be had.

    I go 50% of the time opening T9s UTG. Stacks are usually pretty short and when they are I just fold. But versus a few deep stacks, the passive nature of everyone's preflop play inclines me to open a bit wider from EP. Everyone just flats with QQ, sometimes KK, and way more often than makes sense, AA. It's quite comical. It doesn't surprise me anymore but it does amaze me.
    I swear if the weather is nice I'm going to take a spontaneous trip to FL and sit on a beach during the day and play poker at night. Maybe Daytona post spring break. I could use some sun, and I could use some sitting at a table where less than 6 of my 8 V's are playing CLP ranges. (Last night I ended up at a 1/3 table with another 2/5 refugee.)
  • 3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    I think in general people give the regs in their games too much credit.
  • Superfly Posts: 590Subscriber
    @CycleV, I could really use some beach sun and fishy poker fun too! Unfortunately I have moving expenses and tax bills on the horizon. On top of that, down shifting to part-time at work, putting the crunch on my free cash flow and poker bankroll. So sadly stuck in Chicago unless I can run it up big time tonight. Lol.
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