Villain (350) 40s European guy. Not a pro - I think he might be a semi reg as I kind of remember the face but don't remember much about his play. He bought in for 400 and just sat down maybe 1 orbit ago. Pretty much total unknown.
Hero (1000+) Don't think villain knows me. I've been fairly active as I've got decent hands. Maybe 2 hands before this I 3b an aggressive regular with qj and ended up showing it down. Villain saw the hand (although who knows if these guys pay attention) so maybe he thinks I'm aggro and open light.
Hero opens to 20 Utg+1 A
Villain calls in co
Everyone else folds
Hero bets 30, villain calls.
Hero bets 70, villain calls
Villain called flop fairly quickly and thought for a little bit before calling turn.
I doubt villain has a monster like a set as you'd expect him to raise. Aces up is unlikely. He could have jack/ten although he might fold the turn when I bet fairly big.
I don't have the A
so he could have flopped the nut flush and turned TP and the nfd. Not sure if he calls a big river bet. That's kind of the main hand I think wouldn't bet if I check but probably calls if I bet.
Could I actually check here though? I think he has a flush draw a lot of the time that isn't going to call a bet. I normally should have a big hand when I bet flop and turn, but even fish know the ace is a good bluff card. He has about a psb left so realistically if I had a hand like queens maybe he thinks he can ship and get me off of it.
Or is that too fancy, and I just bet and hope he somehow calls.
Is there any reason to bet small here? I figured with this runout either he thinks I'm fos and calls a 180-200 bet or he's folding and not calling like a $110 bet, so why not bet bigger?