Villain ($1000) Older recreational player. Plays somewhat stationy especially preflop but isn't really paying off for big bets postflop without a hand. Maybe 2 hands before this I had the following hand vs him. I overlimped the button with Q8hh 5 ways. Flop came like 963hh, he bet $25 and I called. Turn was the Kh giving me a flush. He bet $30, i raised to $90 and he called. River was an offsuit Q and I thought at that point a nine isn't calling anyway, so I decided to bet $150 and he thought for a while and folded. It seemed like he wanted to call so maybe he thinks I'm bluffing.
Hero ($1200) Pretty good image. I won a few pots without showdown where I actually had hands, but villains don't know that. Besides the hand I mentioned above, I took down a pot against another villain where I turned aces up and raised turn, then rivered the nut aces full and put the guy all in for a PSB and villain folded. Again this was not the villain in this hand, but it may look like I'm playing aggro and bluffy.
Folds to Villain in MP2
Villain limps MP2
Hero raises to $25 A
V checks, hero bets $35, V calls
V checks, hero bets $85, V calls
Villain checks, Hero ?
Villain called flop without too much hesitation and thought for a little while before calling on the turn. Not super pained, but not a really enthusiastic call either.
I really hate not getting thin river value, but I was torn on this runout. I lose to basically QJ, Kxcc, and I guess KQ. I think KQ might lead the river but I dunno. I tend to discount a five because most guys will raise at some point before the river, or donk if they didn't raise earlier. He might not lead or CR QJ because the board is paired and QJ still loses to KK/AA.
He does limp a lot, although I don't think he calls really bad suited queens like Q6s heads up OOP. So I guess I beat QT, Q9s maybe and maybe Q8s if he plays that. If he had a hand like JTcc, AJcc that picked up a pair OTT, might he call a small river bet just to see what I have?
The river sucks because if he was calling me down with a hand like a PP 66-TT the board is so scary it's tough for him to call. I think I'm ahead a lot of the time - but can I get called more than 50% if I bet?
I might have a bluffy image, but is this river too thin to bet? What if I bet really small, maybe as small as $75 or $80? Maybe even an Ed Miller like $50 bet?