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Too thin on the river?

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
2/5 200-1000

Villain ($1000) Older recreational player. Plays somewhat stationy especially preflop but isn't really paying off for big bets postflop without a hand. Maybe 2 hands before this I had the following hand vs him. I overlimped the button with Q8hh 5 ways. Flop came like 963hh, he bet $25 and I called. Turn was the Kh giving me a flush. He bet $30, i raised to $90 and he called. River was an offsuit Q and I thought at that point a nine isn't calling anyway, so I decided to bet $150 and he thought for a while and folded. It seemed like he wanted to call so maybe he thinks I'm bluffing.

Hero ($1200) Pretty good image. I won a few pots without showdown where I actually had hands, but villains don't know that. Besides the hand I mentioned above, I took down a pot against another villain where I turned aces up and raised turn, then rivered the nut aces full and put the guy all in for a PSB and villain folded. Again this was not the villain in this hand, but it may look like I'm playing aggro and bluffy.

Folds to Villain in MP2
Villain limps MP2
Hero raises to $25 AspadeQheart
Blinds fold
Villain calls

$50
Flop: Qclub5club5diamond
V checks, hero bets $35, V calls

$130
Turn: Qclub5club5diamondJheart
V checks, hero bets $85, V calls

$300
River: Qclub5club5diamondJheartKdiamond
Villain checks, Hero ?

Villain called flop without too much hesitation and thought for a little while before calling on the turn. Not super pained, but not a really enthusiastic call either.

I really hate not getting thin river value, but I was torn on this runout. I lose to basically QJ, Kxcc, and I guess KQ. I think KQ might lead the river but I dunno. I tend to discount a five because most guys will raise at some point before the river, or donk if they didn't raise earlier. He might not lead or CR QJ because the board is paired and QJ still loses to KK/AA.

He does limp a lot, although I don't think he calls really bad suited queens like Q6s heads up OOP. So I guess I beat QT, Q9s maybe and maybe Q8s if he plays that. If he had a hand like JTcc, AJcc that picked up a pair OTT, might he call a small river bet just to see what I have?

The river sucks because if he was calling me down with a hand like a PP 66-TT the board is so scary it's tough for him to call. I think I'm ahead a lot of the time - but can I get called more than 50% if I bet?

I might have a bluffy image, but is this river too thin to bet? What if I bet really small, maybe as small as $75 or $80? Maybe even an Ed Miller like $50 bet?

Comments

  • nahcretep Posts: 108Subscriber
    do you know what the villains limp call range is?. I think its not too much of a mistake to check back the river. don't like betting $50 cause I don't like to level my self into thinking I am inducing if villain check raise. it seems like you have not shown down a hand yet, so there could be a reason to bet even if villain will not call so you still keep the other players in the dark.
  • I haven't played with him a ton. I raised a few times to iso and I've seen him do the "If someone called I would call but I can't call you heads up" so I'm assuming heads up he doesn't call super super wide. I'm thinking more high cards or PP's than random big/little suiteds.

    This guy is a pretty passive rec player, so I really doubt a small bet would induce a raise from a hand that AQ beats. Maybe he'd raise like KQ but I don't beat that anyway.

    I didn't actually bet $50 so I'm not trying to justify a play but I'm wondering in these spots where I think maybe a bet is too thin if that means I could make a stupid small bet.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    as someone who uses the stupid small bet more than anyone I know, I probably check this river. board is too scary to expect to get called by worse
  • Yeah I probably should have checked.

    I bet 90 because I thought maybe the guy would just get tired of me betting and take a stand with worse.

    He actually tanked a long time and called with qj, but he actually said "you win" and was about to muck until he saw he was good. Based on that I don't know qt calls although in reality the hands aren't much different.
  • JKH Posts: 831Subscriber
    I love the bet and not too thin in my opinion unless the opponent and u have history where he takes passive lines intentionally to get u to value own yourself. But against an older opponent that will not bluff raise I like a smaller bet sizing like 180 or... Even considering flat betting it.
  • nahcretep Posts: 108Subscriber
    the thing about some passive players are that they don't raise even with hands that is worth raising unless its the total nuts, so often you will value own your self when they take the calling station line. playing against your perceived aggro/bluffy image, I think he payed the hand fine post flop.
  • Johnny G Posts: 15SubscriberProfessional
    Bet-fold the river $120 into $300. It really seems like you will be getting called for value more often than you are being-value owned in this situation. If you are getting called for value over 50% of the time then it is profitable over the long run. This guy is a calling station and it seems like he would call down with Q & weak kicker most of the time. He got lucky on the turn and hit two pair but this only happens rarely --12% over two streets to make 2 pair.
  • IPIW247IPIW247 Posts: 91Subscriber
    I love the bet. I would of bet $70. You definitely could be called by worst & you don't have to show down your hand. I think this is an important factor.
  • Aria Posts: 8Member
    Check back see what he shows up with and use the info for later hands
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