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Weird Turn Spot leads to river decision

$5-10 uncapped. Effective stacks $4000. Villain in the hand used to be a huge spot in the game but has improved. Now is only a small losing player and sits very deep all of the time. He is the same opponent that shoved on me in the DPP podcast "My Heart Session from Hell"

From Mp1 and my immediate right villain raises to $45 and I call with Ah Jh, bttn calls. Pot $140.

FLOP: jd 2s 3h. Villain checks, I bet $80, bttn folds, villain calls. Pot $300

TURN: Ad. Villain checks, I bet $200, Villain makes it $500, I call. Pot $1300

River Ts. Villain bet $1800.

I think the turn is pretty interesting. I have seen this guy check-call with Ace high types of hands a lot on the flop after being the preflop raiser. I didnt really know what to make of his craise though as I block JJ and AA and think he would cbet those hands + sets or 45 on the flop. I think that calling is best because this guy still tends to overplay his hands and figured he might have AK or AQ and would check-call a huge bet on the river. When he overbets the river I pretty much dismiss AK or AQ but find it difficult to put him on a hand.



  • Doug Hull Posts: 15Member
    Bart said
    I think that calling is best because this guy still tends to overplay his hands and figured he might have AK or AQ and would check-call a huge bet on the river. When he overbets the river I pretty much dismiss AK or AQ but find it difficult to put him on a hand.

    When I am confused like this, I tend to call. However...

    My first impression was AT, but as I read it over trying to think of what he has, I think it is exactly KdQd. He check calls with two overs and backdoor diamonds. He backs into nut diamonds, Broadway draw and Royal possibility. He hit broadway on the end and figured it was disguised enough to really overbet the pot for value.

    He thinks he is ahead, I don't think he is bluffing. I gotta think you are against broadway. A strong case needs to be made for calling now. I hate it, but I fold. I gotta be ahead a lot to call, and I don't think I am.

  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    The check/call on the flop and the CR on the turn when an A hits seems like some type of AX hand or possibly some type of broadway diamond draw. The overtbet on the river might be a bluff with a missed draw or what he thinks might be a chop. He may be thinking he can move you off your hand because you never raised. Most players don't realize how strong a call can be from a thinking player (was that a tweet? if not, it could be).

    In the heart sessions from hell (May right?) I think he told someone he had two pair, AQ? Can't remember all the details. I know you didn't believe him, but I think some percentage of the time he may have been telling the truth.

    Based on how he "overplayed" that hand, I think a call here is good. It's hard to imagine that he would call a raise with worse.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    A permutation of eselspiel's thoughts: A4 or A5 suited, which continues because of a gutter on the flop and pairs the A on the turn. Perhaps he CRs because he thinks his A is good since you bet the flop -- thinks he has outdrawn your jack. He then overbets the dangerous river card trying to get a fold.

    In general, this kind of hand is exactly the type that I struggle especially with deep stacks. Unlike Doug, I tend to fold to big bets and raises with medium strength hands (or boards that get ugly) unless I have high conviction that I am ahead, but I think I get exploited as a result. I'm trying to reason out the spots to make courageous calls / re-raises, especially against loose/unpredictable opponents.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I am all over the place. If he is betting for true value then I think even how unlikely he has JJ or KQ, but I actually discount KQ diamonds because on this board I think he cbets a fair amount of the time .. You know this player has he check called with a back door draw then check raise the turn when the ace hits? I think that is key is narrowing his range .. If he has done this then I think its a fold..

    If you havent seen him overcall a flop bet and not check raise the turn with a combo draw then I think he can have AQ or AK and as you said is overplaying it..

  • I'm going to go over this hand on the show this week. Thanks for the responses--

  • JerseyJay Posts: 181Subscriber
    Wow. I hate this spot. This feels like a badly played set of Jacks. I think the most important aspect of this hand is exactly how often is this particular player capable of craising a turned draw. Seems like a lot of people are not capable. Secondly, how often is this player betting a top pair (AK, AQ) hand for value on the turn, and then turning it into a bluff on the river? Or is he betting it for value on the river? I'm calling a 1/2 pot sized bet, and folding to this overbet muttering "if Im folding the better hand good, for you".

  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    If he isnt cbetting that flop is he really raising the turn?

    Id say this is a pretty clear cut call.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Hard to believe that he is value betting a worse hand here. I don't think he bets anywhere close to 1.5x pot with a worse aces up (or any other 2 pair hand). Polarizing bet by definition otr. Your range is strong when u bet/call turn, and it seems like he is trying to get paid with a small set 2s / 3s.

    Tough fold.
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