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How could this ever be a bluff?

JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Wynn 2/5
950 effective

At the table for 15m so no great reads

v2 TP
v4 the spot
v6 unknown but buddy is railing him so I think tourist

v2 $15 MP v4 call, v6 SB calls, H BB 7club5club calls

I did not 3b as I JUST got caught overplaying a hand.

Flop 7heart5diamond3club

ck, ck, v2 ck, v4 $40 v6 call, H $155
v2 fold, v4 call, v6 r $555

Hero tanks folds.... At best I thought I was chopping. How is this a bluff? How is it ever an overplayed pair? Nuts or set was my thought.

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Yeah, that's an unpleasant spot to have to fold, but that's a pretty huge raise in a 5/5 game, and huge raises usually mean huge strength from recreational/tourist type players. In your position, in order for me to make this call I'd have to know that V6 was a huge, spewy fish that would just get it in with anything that hits the board. I'd fold this without worrying about it too much.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    it's just a big mistake to put big money into the pot early in a session without much info in a player-dependent situation. good fold. sure, it's possible he's making a clueless play with AA but you just don't have the info to know that with any certainty.
  • reemas Posts: 100Member
    It's unlikely he has a strong over pair given his flat from the SB since most players don't want to see broadways with TT+. He could have 88-TT sometimes but really all that stuff is very unlikely and very read dependent. That being said there is only 1 combo each of 77 and 55, 3 combos of 33, and 16 46o/46s combos. Vs that range (and some combos of 86 so let's say 86s only) you have 28% equity. Given the raise size and his line this is rarely even 86s so your equity drops to 21%.

    Good spot to fold. Did any reads come up later on villain?

    edit: meant to sat 46o/46s (previously said 34) - was on my iPhone
  • reemas Posts: 100Member
    JCW,

    What do you do if villain min raised you to $310? We are getting 21.5% odds but assuming our outs are only a 7 or 5, and assuming he doesn't give you a free river, do you call to see the turn? We have anywhere from 2-4 outs so we have about a 4%-8% chance of hitting on the turn and 8%-16% if we get a free river.

    I'm in a rush so my math might be off, but essentially does his range even change when he min raises? I think this is why Bart has said in the past he likes a min raise sometimes if we are villain and have a hand like 77 or 46.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    Turns out this guy didn't speak English. On a trip from China.

    I tanked folded. But was never seriously thinking about calling. I just wanted to construct a Range of hands he could have before folding. The range was just ugly for me. Even the more optimistic Range I built where he might be overplaying some hands or semi-bluffing occasionally was still brutal. He always has those 16 combos of 64 in the range.

    I think if he min raises he might have the more optimistic range. Given that I might peel one and see what he does. Also I would expect v4 to do the same. Now with all that implied odds of their stacks in play it isn't horrible (but still not great).

    If I suspected he was a smart played then his min-raise would be as tough a range as his jam here, so I think it should be a fold. But I suspect the my tank to be more real. And if I had any tilt in me I might just call. Just being honest.
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