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I hate slowplaying sets but . . .

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 2-1000

Villain 1 (800) 40s white guy. Playing fairly LP pre and possibly weak tight post. I've seen him limp ak Utg and basically check flop bet small on turn/river with top 2 on an AK10xx board. He also raised preflop in early position and bet/folded what I believe was a somewhat wet board - maybe like T96ss or something like that. I don't remember exactly. He tanked for a long time and it seemed like he might have folded an overpair. He didn't say or show.

Villain 2 (500) Younger kid. Probably here for the tourney series as he isn't a reg. Calls somewhat loose pre but not a ton of info.

Hero (1100) moved to the table maybe an hour ago. I took down several pots without showdown in position when preflop raisers checked and I bet. Besides that haven't been super aggro postflop. I've been fairly active pre won a few smallish pots as the Pfr.

Villain opens $20 Utg
Villain 2 calls in the HJ
Hero 2spade2diamond calls otb
Bb calls

Flop: 6club 3heart 2spade
Bb checks, villain 1 bets 55, villain 2 calls 55, hero?

I hate slowplaying, so I really want to raise now. Unfortunately when I raise I end up squeezing villain 1 who has V2 behind him. I'm not sure if V1 can hand read, but V2 is unlikely to be strong on this board unless he's slowplaying a monster, in which case I'm actually likely to be behind (2pr is unlikely and 45/33/66 beat me).

From my experience guys hate folding QQ-AA but will fold hands like 99-JJ. When I raise flop there's not really any difference, but it's just rec player mentality. So I might actually get him off of tens or whatever even if he thinks I'm FOS because these guys don't want to go broke with Tens.

If villain 1 has a hand like TT there are 16 overcards and 8 more 4/5's that put one liners that he might get scared of too. That's more than half the deck. Realistically I need to hope for either a board pairing card (of which a six might scare V1 anyway) or maybe a 7, 8 or 9 (which could theoretically hit V2 if he called the flop cbet with a mid PP).

So if I don't raise a lot of bad things can happen that make me not get stacks in. If he actually has a hand like 88 or 99 I'm probably not winning a huge pot anyway.

If you're raising, what kind of sizing is good here? I don't usually min raise, but I could make it like $110 here as there's no draws to protect against and ideally I could 2 calls. If V2 wants to go with it I can get stacks in and even if I make it $110 and bet like $150/$275 with tiny turn/river bets I can get something like $550 in post which I think is reasonable vs a possible weak/tight villain.

Curious if this is a spot you guys would consider just calling flop. Would it make a difference if V2 had folded and we were HU?


  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber

    I don't think V2 is much of a consideration here. He's either got us beat, in which case he's going to get our money since we're trying to extract from V1, or (more likely) he's going to not pay off significantly. If for some reason V1 folds and V2 3-bets AI, then

    The JJ-99 range is going to be hard to extract from whatever line you take - like you said, there really not that many good turn cards for you to get more value from middle pairs. And If V1 is tight enough to fold AA/KK to a raise here, then this isn't how we're going to make money off of him.

    But I think if you make a smallish raise to like 140-150 he will probably stick around with his better OPs, and you can bet something like 200 on the turn and 350 on the river - betting half pot or less to try to give him nasty pot odds to call down. And the flip side is that if we call flop, he bets turn and we raise then, doesn't that look significantly more scary to the average player? Only exceptions I can see is if the turn card is a K and he has AA, but that still seems like a reach.

    Bottom line - if you raise and V1 folds, I don't think you were going to win much more off of him anyway, but I think if you don't raise now you will lose value against the subset of his range that can stick around.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    Raise flop small to 160. It will be easy to get stacks in this way on turn/river after the PFR calls this raise. I really doubt that the PFR will fold an overpair.

    Slow-playing a set here makes more sense if the PFR was an aggressive thinking player who may be c-betting as a bluff and is also likely to double barrel a lot of overcards on the turn. Then, calling with bottom set could arguably be better. Here, however, we should just play straightforwardly by raising small because the PFR obviously has an overpair.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    too many disaster cards on the turn (12/46) for you to not raise this board i think

    also if he bet/tank-folded what you think was an overpair recently he generally won't want to do it again
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Thanks for the comments.

    I actually raised to $150 and unfortunately both players folded. The Pfr tank folded again (sigh) and claimed he had a pair, but it wasn't that big.no idea what the other guy had - I'm guessing 6x or maybe 77.

    Now I know I can bluff this guy basically with impunity. I actually do think there are some spots these days to just call sets sometimes, although this probably isn't one of them
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Question is, if he folded 77, what he have done with JJ/QQ? If he folds everything less than KK then yeah, bluff city. Now, we are aware that QQ and 77 are pretty much the same hand here, but is he? Realistically, if you overcall here, I'm not sure 77 is giving you anymore money.
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