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river bet sizing - go for max value or getting looked up light?

reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/$5 yesterday afternoon. Great table - some spazzy betting and bluffs, some loose call-downs, hardly any 3-betting pre-flop. My image was TAG, not playing very many hands, showed down two hands with strong holdings.

Effective stacks are $500. UTG young white kid (somewhat aggro, but doesn't really know when to tone it down) opens to $15, I call UTG+2 with 9d8d, CO, button (good, TAG Asian lady), and BB call. I called because there was hardly any 3-betting pre-flop. 5-way, pot is $75.

FLOP: J88r. BB checks, UTG checks, I bet $35 (in retrospect, this seems small, but maybe not - comments welcome). CO calls, button calls, BB folds, UTG calls. Pot is $215.

TURN: T completes rainbow. I now have trip 8's with OESD. UTG checks, I check, gets checked through. My thoughts were that I didn't want to get blown off my hand with a big raise, and I wasn't sure I wanted to play for stacks with this hand. With everyone calling my flop bet, I thought it was possible for someone to be trying to trap me. Plus, a few hands earlier, I watched tight Asian lady play a big pot against UTG where both had trips (8's actually), and UTG showed 86, while tight Asian lady showed down A8 and scooped. Thoughts on the turn?

RIVER: 9 I make 8's full of 9's. UTG checks. I was thinking about how much to bet, and I thought about some of Bart's stuff, "Do I want to bet small and get looked up by a J, or do I want to go big and hope someone has a Q?" I thought about it for a few seconds and bet $150 into $215 pot. CO folds, tight Asian lady thought for what felt like a LONG time (at least a minute), had calling chips in her hand (she had around $1000 stack), and finally mucked, UTG thought for not quite as long and mucked.

Did I go too big on the river? If one of those players had AQ or QJ or QT or Q9, would they have called my bet, or did it look too scary? Thoughts on all streets are welcome. Thanks!

Comments

  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    You gotta bet the turn! There are a ton of draws, JT, etc that would call your bet.

    Looks like someone could have a pretty good hand. I like the max value line on the river.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    eselspiel said

    You gotta bet the turn! There are a ton of draws, JT, etc that would call your bet.

    Looks like someone could have a pretty good hand. I like the max value line on the river.
    Yeah, at the time I was torn, kinda felt like I pussed out. However, sometimes guys will spaz out with JT in that spot. So on the turn, if I bet $100, and get raised to $325, am I calling off with 89?
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    My two cents, I would have planned your betting so you could have gotten reasonably AI by the river. E.g. $15, $50, $185, $250

    At 100 BB I wouldn't worry about losing to a higher 8 or made FH and bet the turn for value. You noted the table was loosely calling so you should try to get value esp given it's multiway, there's someone that could pay you off, and no-one has shown initiative yet. I think if reraised, you commit at 100 BB, especially since you said there was spazzy betting/bluffing -- there are many combos of other OESDs, pocket pairs, strong Jacks and outright bluffs that could raise you if they thought you were double barrel bluffing into a dangerous board. Of course it's possible you could be behind if you are reraised (and perhaps if the Asian lady raised you, should consider folding -- although I don't think I can fold at this stack depth), but I think those few combos are far outweighed by the need to get value and set up AI by the river -- and you have the 8 out straight redraw if your opponent doesn't already have a FH.

    I could understand your rationale if you checked because you wanted to change up your line due to your TAG image to try to get paid -- that strategy is game-flow dependent, but I would think about CRing the turn.

    As played, I don't mind your bet given it seemed like many of the potential draws either came in or would give opponents 2 pair. I don't think a single J pair would call a smaller river bet. You can also experiment with a small blocking bet to try to induce a reraise as an alternative line, but I don't feel strongly here since a straight or 2 pair could certainly be in their range.
  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    reedmylips said
    eselspiel said

    You gotta bet the turn! There are a ton of draws, JT, etc that would call your bet.

    Looks like someone could have a pretty good hand. I like the max value line on the river.
    Yeah, at the time I was torn, kinda felt like I pussed out. However, sometimes guys will spaz out with JT in that spot. So on the turn, if I bet $100, and get raised to $325, am I calling off with 89?
    I would not bet $100 into a $215 pot. I have a heavy betting hand and would have bet more like $150 - which is closer to 2/3 PSB. Call off on the turn if raised.

    If you bet $150, then you have about $300 left -with effective stacks starting @ $500. A raise all in you'd be calling $300 to win $815.

    Pot's $215 (after the flop) + 2*($150) +$300 (you're raised all in) = $815. You need to be good < 40% of the time.
    You have a blocker and outs against a straight and you have straight outs to a better 8. Figure that any 8 played against a PFR would be suited. That doesn't leave a whole lot of combos out there - if she even has an 8 in her range...

    If we assume, her starting range is QQ-22,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s

    If she only continues with top pair or better and an OESD (that's 29 combos from the orginal 130), then only JJ (3 combos) and T8 beat you and one combo of 98s ties you.

    AJs, KJs,QJs,JTs,J9s,T9s,JJ 3 combos each, QQ 6 combos, T8s,T9s one combo each...

    The T on the rainbow turn strengthens your hand. Believe it or not, based on the assumptions so far, she can NOT have a straight because the T8s is now impossible to have in her range.

    So you are only losing to the flopped full house JJ. That's just 3 combos of the 28 combos now. 98s still ties you. You beat: QQ (6 combos ), 2 combos of JTs, and three combos each of AJs, KJs,QJs,J9s.

    On the river, only the 3 combos of JJ beat you. It seems unlikely that she has that because she did not bet the turn when checked to.

    A bit more math than can be done at the table by mere mortals; however, its good to recognize times like this where despite the board looking scary, no straight is in your opponents range.

    If add A8s to your opponents range, there is only one more combo that's beating you on the flop and turn.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    Yeah, now that you guys break it down, it definitely looks weak-tight of me to check the turn after leading flop into the field after the pfr checks. I wish I could learn to slow down and think through these big spots better where it looks like I could potentially be getting my stack in the middle. After the analysis, it looks like I should fire the turn again for value. As played, the board got super-scary, and my bet of $150 must have looked super-strong. Better to bet like that on the turn while the villains still have a chance to improve and might call a decent bet. Thanks for the help!
  • Doug Hull Posts: 15Member
    Dealing only with the river bet sizing.

    Go for it. If they are calling $150, they are calling $220. The bigger bet looks bluffier, and people will call you down pretty light because the obvious threat is the Queen. When they correctly discern you can not have a Queen (Except maybe QJ), it ends up putting them into bluff catching mode. The bigger bet makes them suspicious.

    I think people will often be blind to the Boat, because of all the straight out there.

    When in doubt, I bet bigger when I have a nutty hand like this.
  • Doug Hull said

    Dealing only with the river bet sizing.

    Go for it. If they are calling $150, they are calling $220. The bigger bet looks bluffier, and people will call you down pretty light because the obvious threat is the Queen. When they correctly discern you can not have a Queen (Except maybe QJ), it ends up putting them into bluff catching mode. The bigger bet makes them suspicious.

    I think people will often be blind to the Boat, because of all the straight out there.

    When in doubt, I bet bigger when I have a nutty hand like this.
    I think the key here is "when in doubt" you can go for it. However there are certain situations where an opponent's range is capped. In those spots betting bigger with a nutty hand is a mistake if you were going to be smaller with a less nutty hand. In the end you are playing off of your opponent's range and the board texture not your own. I'm going to go over a hand in this week's show that will demonstrate this with TT.

    However, in this case your opponents can easily have a straight so I would bet large. They are not going to fold.

    Bart
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