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No reads on player

kdogmc Posts: 100Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Game just got off. I have 1010 effective stacks 575
1/3 game
I'm in the SB with 1010. Three limpers. I raise to 20. BB raises to fifty I call

Flop 664. Two spades He bets 30. I call
Turn 3. He bets 60 I call.
River 5. No flush. He bets 275 ????

Easy fold?

Comments

  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    i would call if i thought he sucked and wouldn't value bet JJ+ and fold if i thought he was good
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    stereo type the player and if you think he would valuebet big PPs like this than fold. If he looks like a pussy call since he would be checking back all of his pairs scared you have a 2 or 7 somehow.
  • SupremeNinja Posts: 137Subscriber
    I'm going to fold here.

    His PF raise shows JJ+. I think alot of players today at this level would flat AQ suited or even AK suited.

    He bets super small on the flop... I get 2 reads.
    1. He wants to see a cheap turn (with a flush draw)
    2. He has a big over pair, and he wants you to raise with a smaller over pair.

    Same thing on the the turn, as the flop.

    He bets almost pot on the river. He is either 3-barrel bluffing you, or extracting tons of value from the exact range he puts you on AND the exact hand you actually have. I feel like the line you've taken has you hand played face up (which is fine in this situation).

    This combined with the fact that most players would flat call PF with AQ/AK... I would fold river.
  • mtnracer Posts: 9Member
    His bet is almost pot-sized (275 in to 280, if I calculated right). That polarizes his range significantly. Especially at a 1/3 level, a bet this big usually signifies a hand that increased in strength on the river (77, 55, 22), or is trying to push out a medium pocket pair with AJs-AK. If I were to weight the likelihood equally and use combinatorics to make the decision, there are more combinations of AJs-AK, and we're offered 2:1, so I call. Based on pure meta, I'd call to see how the guy to my left plays HU blind vs blind and with polarized river bets. The potential loss of equity in calling can be made up in later pots against an aggressive player. And if you call and are right, it may tilt him for the rest of the session.

    I call.
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