Villain (300) older guy. Seems to be fairly tight. Raised a few times preflop. Showed down qq, kqs etc. One time he claimed to have folded a big pp to a flop cr and 3b. Lost a few hands recently though.
Hero (550) only showed down a few hands. I bet small with j9 2nd pair of jacks on turn and river and got called by kj. So they've seen me bet thin over 2 streets. I took down a few pots without showdown.
Folds to villain on mp2
Villain opens to $25
Folds to hero in bb
Hero Jc Js calls in Bb
Flop: 4h 4d 2h
Hero checks, villain checks
Turn: 4h 4d 2h 2d
Hero bets $35 villan calls
River: 4h 4d 2h 2d Jd
Hero bets x$?
I thought about 3 betting pre. Guy is reasonably tight and I thought he folds a lot if I 3b so I'd call and play the hand.
Villain tanked for a little while before calling turn. It didn't look like he planned on raising, and I think he almost always Cbets pps to get the money in and to avoid a bad beat.
I think he has ace high a lot on the turn. There is some chance he has a flush draw, but you'd think sometimes he'd bet nut hearts in the flop and you'd think he'd have a plan to call turn and wouldnt tank.
On a brick river I was planning on betting very small, maybe $40 or $45 to get looked up by a high. Instead I river the nuts.
Is there any reason to make a big bet now? Its actually kind of a scary card for ak high because backdoor diamonds came in and hands like qjs, jts etc paired up. On the other hand if he has diamonds I'm sure he at least calls. Its double paired but 4422 he might actually shove back.
Are you betting big and hoping he hit a flush or a jack, or going with the plan to bet small?
Is your bet any different if river was an offsuit ten? Ten of hearts? Ten of diamonds?