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river the nuts - does it matter?

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 200-500

Villain (300) older guy. Seems to be fairly tight. Raised a few times preflop. Showed down qq, kqs etc. One time he claimed to have folded a big pp to a flop cr and 3b. Lost a few hands recently though.

Hero (550) only showed down a few hands. I bet small with j9 2nd pair of jacks on turn and river and got called by kj. So they've seen me bet thin over 2 streets. I took down a few pots without showdown.

Folds to villain on mp2
Villain opens to $25
Folds to hero in bb
Hero Jc Js calls in Bb

Flop: 4h 4d 2h
Hero checks, villain checks

Turn: 4h 4d 2h 2d
Hero bets $35 villan calls

River: 4h 4d 2h 2d Jd
Hero bets x$?

I thought about 3 betting pre. Guy is reasonably tight and I thought he folds a lot if I 3b so I'd call and play the hand.

Villain tanked for a little while before calling turn. It didn't look like he planned on raising, and I think he almost always Cbets pps to get the money in and to avoid a bad beat.

I think he has ace high a lot on the turn. There is some chance he has a flush draw, but you'd think sometimes he'd bet nut hearts in the flop and you'd think he'd have a plan to call turn and wouldnt tank.

On a brick river I was planning on betting very small, maybe $40 or $45 to get looked up by a high. Instead I river the nuts.

Is there any reason to make a big bet now? Its actually kind of a scary card for ak high because backdoor diamonds came in and hands like qjs, jts etc paired up. On the other hand if he has diamonds I'm sure he at least calls. Its double paired but 4422 he might actually shove back.

Are you betting big and hoping he hit a flush or a jack, or going with the plan to bet small?

Is your bet any different if river was an offsuit ten? Ten of hearts? Ten of diamonds?


  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    You have to bet according to his range. I think your plan to bet small on a brick river still applies. Sounds like he shows up with mostly medium PPs and Ax. Bet $40ish to get value from most of his range. If he is at the top of it and raises you, that's just cake.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    i think im betting quite large on all rivers. His range almost has to have SD value. I would bet big like 80-90 making sure to keep it under the $100 mark. Also might make some remark like whats in the pot 150? just so he knows the size of the pot and will have an easier time talking himself into hero calling you.

    I dont think im changing anything on any card on the river tbh. Might overbet if 4 or 2 comes off on the river trying to make it look like im trying to get him off a chop but i think every other card im betting in the $80 range and expect to be called by 33-TT almost every time.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I actually bet $80 which is probably a mistake because it's in the middle, and he tank folded. He thought for a long time and was shuffling all his chips like maybe he wanted to shove.

    I'm actually thinking maybe by making a really small bet, like $35, I might induce a raise. If I bomb it maybe a flush just calls (although it also might raise because the double pair is so low). But if I bet $35 and he has AQdd maybe he just shoves. If he ever tries to bluff raise (which is unlikely, but maybe possible) I win more that way as well.
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