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understanding equity...as in I don't understand, I think...?

reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm not sure I understand how hand equity translates into correct action. Here is a theoretical hand to illustrate my conundrum:

5/5 NLHE, $500 effective stacks, 9-handed

three limpers, HJ raises to $30 with QJs, folds to hero OTB with AA and we make it $85. Blinds fold, limpers fold, HJ calls. Pot is $190 after rake.

Flops comes QT9r, no suit cards for HJ. HJ decides to donk-bet into hero to $115, leaving himself $300 behind. While hero thinks about whether or not to ship, fold, call, throw up a little...HJ turns over his hand, showing us QJs with no suits on board, giving him 45% equity in the pot vs. our AA. Now, we're really in a pickle...

If we ship in the rest of our stack ($415) and push our 55%-45% edge differential, we make the pot $720, $300 for HJ to call. He only needs 41.6% equity to make the call, and he has 45% equity in the hand.

Therefore, given that there is no amount we can raise given HJ's equity in the hand where HJ doesn't correctly call off, are we correct to rip it in? Do we just call and decide on the turn?

This probably comes up more in PLO where more hand equities run closer together, and your bets are limited to the size of the pot. If any of you PLO wizards could address this for PLO, that would be fantastic!

Thanks, Chris

Comments

  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    You would not be losing money by shoving here nor would he be losing money by calling your shove. Shoving here is not the best play though. In addition to having good equity, you have perfect knowledge of your opponent's hand and have position. As a result, you have the luxury of just calling his bet and playing perfectly on the turn. If the turn is a card that reduces our equity such that we can not profitably call his further bets then we can just fold. Otherwise we can continue on and commit the rest of our stack (probably) on the turn.

    I think the problem that you are having here is that knowing your raw hand equity is not sufficient to determine how you should play that equity. Take for instance two simplified situations where you have identical 50% hand equity:

    Case 1:
    On the flop you know that you have 50% equity and furthermore that you have 50% equity on all turn cards.

    Case 2:
    On the flop you know that you have 50% equity and furthermore that on 50% of turn cards you have 100% equity and 50% of turn cards you have 0% equity. You know which turn cards are good for you.

    You can see how having knowledge of your opponent's tendencies would lead you to play very differently in these two situations.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    Well yea in this scenario obviously you should just call.
    reedmylips said
    Therefore, given that there is no amount we can raise given HJ's equity in the hand where HJ doesn't correctly call off, are we correct to rip it in? Do we just call and decide on the turn?
    I feel like you're confused because you can't force villain to make a mistake by calling after he pot commits himself, which is totally fine since he's still getting it in bad since he chose to bet. Here's an easier to understand example that is essentially the same:

    5/5 NLHE, folds to SB who has $200 and raises to $190, you have AA in the BB. You can't force him to make a mistake by calling anymore, he already put his stack in for you.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    In your hand, you can't force a calling error but if there's FE than folding improperly would be a folding error and is also good for you.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    i mean, this is basically the same mathematically as you putting him all in as the first action. you shove for 415. so pot is 605, 415 for him to call, which prices him out. can't ignore the 115 he already put in -- it's just that he priced himself into having to go with a losing proposition.... at least i think that's a proper way to look at it.... seeing the cards and being able to play perfectly, it's a call. but if not, it's a shove, since, with this as the top end of his donk betting range, he'd be getting it in bad.....
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