Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

I built crazy image for myself and get in trouble with AK OTB later

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 at Aria

History:
Playing tight but super aggressively. Hero was unknown female but understood to be leveling player by now. Earlier I got into a crazy click-it-back war against LAG deep, and we ended up having 99 and AJs

Villain is one of the better players at the table, probably a Vegas reg. 1600 effective.

Villain limps UTG+2
Fish limps in MP
Fish limps in CO
Hero raises to 30 OTB with AKo
BB calls
Villain raises to 175
Hero raises to 450
Villain does not take long to shove for ~1600 total

Annoying spot for me, because from villain's perspective, he probably thinks I'm raising the button with garbage and 4-betting with garbage because I think he's FOS. But I'm actually holding a legitimate hand right now.

Perhaps the 4-bet was a bit of a mistake. But he 3-bet so big that it doesn't seem profitable to flat.

So do we:
Flat the 175 instead of 4-bet?
4-bet and angrily fold?
4-bet and stubbornly call?

Comments

  • snap call and be glad you have an image that gets 77 to shove into you
  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    Switch to decafe. You have position, use it.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Do you think he's the type that would limp-RR AA or KK? Has he been 3-betting much earlier and if so, do you know if light or with value hands?

    Without more info, I would call the $175 and as eselpiel said, use your positon.

    As played, you need to put in ~1150 to win ~2120 (about 2 to 1), so you need to be good > 35% of the time. So you are getting the odds to call everything but AA KK.

    So the answer is pretty much read-based on how often he would limp/raise/3betAI range for 160 BB at 2/5 level with worse than AA KK. At that level and your description, I would fold unless I think unless you are in a leveling war with him in particular (and thus you have a read). Another thought: if he thinks you would get it in light based on a previous hand, that is all the more reason to think he will get it in strong w/you since he has less perceived FE with you.
  • regfish Posts: 34Member
    Call. Def. don't 4bet here if you unsure about weather to call or fold. With the info. you gave on villain this is how I would play the hand.
  • When is the last time you ever have seen someone limp reraise fold? I don't think that I have ever seen it on LATB at the $5 blind level.

    Call or fold, it is pretty close-- I lean towards a call with position but you have to rely on some cagey post flop skills to extract max value when you hit top pair vs his probable underpair to the board.

    With your sizing you need 35% equity to call the all in. A range of QQ+ and AK yields you at 39%, take out AKos and you are at 33%. If you think he is ever doing this with a pair below Qs then you are probably going to have to call. But will he ever show up with that?--probably not.

    Bart
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I'm starting to think I 4-bet too much against known light 3-bettors. I didn't used to, but Vegas games seem to be a lot more aggro pre-flop than games at most other places of this level.

    A couple factors here:
    Villain here was a leveling player, and he definitely 3-bets more than average.
    The way it was playing, he could have thought that I would have 4-bet with a large percentage of my range and therefore a shove would have high perceived FE.
    Most importantly, I already made it 450, so I felt like I had the equity to call against a range as strong as QQ+/AK when factoring AK blocker value against AA or KK

    I almost folded, but the gamble in me couldn't resist tossing that stack of $100 bills in the middle, after considering the above factors.

    I might have lucked out. The board ran out such that I had the nut flush at the river.
    Villain didn't show his hand for a few seconds, so I just flipped mine over because I didn't wanna slowroll. I kind of thought he had AK also the way he reacted, because he would have just shown if he had a pair.

    I'm not really that crazy of a player. It's the few crazy hands I play that end up on this forum. But I've gotten stuck with high variance spots more than usual the past couple months. I'm allowed to win one of these hands, right? :)
  • grindbler Posts: 131Member
    sick spot
    i love the folk myth that when you have AK they are a big underdog to have AA/KK,
    when in reality there are as many combos of AA and KK put together as there are of QQ when you have 1 A and 1 K removed. (ie. there are 6 combos of QQ; 3 each or AA and KK).
    So, if they play AA KK and QQ the same, it's a coinflip whether you are coin-flipping if you get it in (they have QQ).

    I'm assuming you 4 bet to get it in? or were turning AK into bluff??
  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    grindbler said

    i love the folk myth that when you have AK they are a big underdog to have AA/KK,
    when in reality there are as many combos of AA and KK put together as there are of QQ when you have 1 A and 1 K removed. (ie. there are 6 combos of QQ; 3 each or AA and KK).
    So, if they play AA KK and QQ the same, it's a coinflip whether you are coin-flipping if you get it in (they have QQ).

    And your in pretty bad shape if they don't have QQ. Against QQ+, AKo only has about 30% equity.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I 4-bet because villain was a known light 3-bettor and I thought there was fold equity. Also, he made the 3-bet big enough that flatting was less appealing. And if I flat and miss the flop, he would push me off the same hand a lot of the time.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    For those of you saying there are 6 combos of QQ and 3 each of AA and KK, you're forgetting that there are also 6 combos of AK. If QQ is in his range, AK should be most of the time too. So there's a 12/18 chance you have about 50% equity, 3/18 chance you have 25% equity, and only a 3/18 chance that you're crushed.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Combinatorics wise , yes it is unlikely you are crushed win AK, but in a live game I rarely if ever see someone ship 300 BBs pre with QQ. You have to weight the combos you could be up against more heavily towards KK, AA, and possibly AK. Not that he couldn't have QQ, but what % of the time would he play QQ like that?
  • regfish Posts: 34Member
    Bart said

    When is the last time you ever have seen someone limp reraise fold? I don't think that I have ever seen it on LATB at the $5 blind level.

    Call or fold, it is pretty close-- I lean towards a call with position but you have to rely on some cagey post flop skills to extract max value when you hit top pair vs his probable underpair to the board.

    With your sizing you need 35% equity to call the all in. A range of QQ+ and AK yields you at 39%, take out AKos and you are at 33%. If you think he is ever doing this with a pair below Qs then you are probably going to have to call. But will he ever show up with that?--probably not.

    Bart
    Although this is 2/5 it probably doesn't play the same as a conventional 2/5 game. I've spoke to a number of people that said this Aria game is the toughest 2/5 in LV on average and that there are a number regs in the pool that are capable of sickness. Going by what OP said in the post I think villain can have some bluffs here like axs some percent of the time.

    I also would agree that if you flat the 3bet your going to have a tough time getting value or showing your hand down against described villain. That's why I would 4bet call here. I've been known to make some really bad plays though, so who knows.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    it would help to have the hand situation for the AJ/99 hand. If its a PF 3/4b situation in that hand how can you ever think of folding here? I think his range is much wider than QQ+ based on the history you have with this villian. you should never 4b this hand if you are planning to fold vs a ship. Dont turn a strong hand like this into a bluff. do it with shit like a4s or something. either call the 3b or 4b/get it in happily.
  • TakeTheOverTakeTheOver Posts: 21Subscriber
    regfish said
    Bart said

    When is the last time you ever have seen someone limp reraise fold? I don't think that I have ever seen it on LATB at the $5 blind level.

    Call or fold, it is pretty close-- I lean towards a call with position but you have to rely on some cagey post flop skills to extract max value when you hit top pair vs his probable underpair to the board.

    With your sizing you need 35% equity to call the all in. A range of QQ+ and AK yields you at 39%, take out AKos and you are at 33%. If you think he is ever doing this with a pair below Qs then you are probably going to have to call. But will he ever show up with that?--probably not.

    Bart
    Although this is 2/5 it probably doesn't play the same as a conventional 2/5 game. I've spoke to a number of people that said this Aria game is the toughest 2/5 in LV on average and that there are a number regs in the pool that are capable of sickness. Going by what OP said in the post I think villain can have some bluffs here like axs some percent of the time.

    I also would agree that if you flat the 3bet your going to have a tough time getting value or showing your hand down against described villain. That's why I would 4bet call here. I've been known to make some really bad plays though, so who knows.
    For whatever this is worth, I played 2/5 at the ARIA in the summer during WSOP and it was the toughest, most aggressive 2/5 game I have played. I racked up after an hour....
  • grindbler Posts: 131Member
    Claire said

    For those of you saying there are 6 combos of QQ and 3 each of AA and KK, you're forgetting that there are also 6 combos of AK. If QQ is in his range, AK should be most of the time too. So there's a 12/18 chance you have about 50% equity, 3/18 chance you have 25% equity, and only a 3/18 chance that you're crushed.
    wasn't suggesting that AK isnt a part of his range. sure its a significant part of it;
    was just taking soley about the combinatorics of AA KK & QQ when we have an A and a K removed
    to illustrate a point about how its a common myth that 'they just cant have it because i have an A and a K in my hand and therefore they must have QQ', which you hear sometimes.
    was just saying that in a hypothetical situation where they randomly have either AA KK or QQ, and they play them all exactly the same (which isnt really the case; thinking theoretically ) then its a 50/50 flip whether youre dominated or flipping against QQ, which seems counter-intuitive, thats all.

    thanks for the equity breakdowns;
    in the aggregate, that doesnt really look that great for AK in this spot;
    although we think of AK v QQ as a classic flip, AK has 42% when it has suits dominated, and 46% w/ AK sooted. still a dog.

    wasnt so much analyzing the hand as far as the overlay you are getting from the pot, ect... ; as played, folding obv is not that great.
Sign In or Register to comment.